2026 NFL Power Rankings Week 1
The Year of Our Lord, 2025, was the year my son got into football.
He was 12 years old. Before that, he had watched pieces of games with me. He had feigned interest in the Chicago Bears because he knew they were My Team. He had played fantasy football and won a flag football championship and mimicked Justin Jefferson while tossing the ball around with his friends.
But he wasn’t a football fan. Not really.
I never forced sports on my children. Sports have been one of the defining throughlines of my life. In youth, they were my escape from the tentacles of near-poverty. After college, they became the foundation of my first career as a sports reporter. Eventually, through some combination of persistence, poor judgment and divine intervention from the Gambling Gods, they became my adult profession.
But I never wanted to foist my own psychological life preservers onto my children. I’ve shackled them with enough already.
Instead, football had simply existed around them. It has always been an underlying frequency in my home. For me, it’s an occupational imperative to ride the NFL wave 365 days a year. For them, it has been static unwittingly absorbed.
Of course, independent of me, the NFL had already seeped into my son’s cultural understanding of the world. For good or ill, it is a monolithic, undeniable feature of modern American life. To exist in this country, at this time, requires at least a passing comprehension of The Game.
Football is who we are. It is violent and mechanized. It is corrupt and commodified. It is also completely unique; a mix of brutality and beauty that makes your soul swell. Football is chaos and camaraderie. It is one of the increasingly rare social unifiers in our grotesquely splintered union. And it is also a financial juggernaut, literally propping up corners of our national economy.
It is tragic and glorious and horrifying and intoxicating and necessary, all at once.
It is awesome.
And it clicked. My son started asking when games were on. Then he knew the schedule. He knew the players. He texted me highlights and memes. He started basking in Sundays instead of tolerating them. Weekdays became anticipation. Weekends, adrenaline.
Slowly, organically, The Game took root.
Despite my warnings, my son jumped on the Bears’ rickety, rotten bandwagon with me. I explained why he should refuse this inheritance and told him there are generational curses less damaging than Chicago Bears fandom. But he persisted. And was rewarded with one of the most exhilarating seasons in Chicago’s 115-year history. Watching Caleb Williams defy physics, logic and destiny each week was a relentless whirlwind of joy for us both.
My son didn’t care about closing-line value. He didn’t care about coaching trends or injury reports or market overreactions. He didn’t spend Sunday mornings staring into the abyss, wondering which backup offensive lineman was going to ruin his afternoon.
He just wanted the Bears to win.
Last year, I began the season by telling you that Hope is weakness. Again, my son wouldn’t listen. They rarely do. The result was watching him experience an NFL season the way I haven’t been able to in decades: pure bliss, without the baggage of a thousand bad beats.
It didn’t matter that the season eventually ended without a championship. Of course it did. That is what seasons do. Sooner or later, football breaks everyone’s heart. What mattered is that my son bought the ticket, took the ride, and now wants more.
I still have self-doubt over how much to expose him to when it comes to this savage, superb game. My job demands cynicism. Skepticism is professional equipment. I’m paid to ignore narratives, resist emotion, question assumptions and search for the ugly Truth hiding beneath the betting public’s naivete.
How much of The Darkness and cruelty do I illuminate? How much Kabuki should we enjoy before I pull back the curtain?
Those are questions for another day.
Football is back. And I know what’s lurking. I know of broken quarterbacks and blown coverages. Pain and derangement. Ecstasy and delusion. Amusement and regret. The acts of vengeful gods. Losing streaks and injuries and stupidity that will drive gamblers to the brink of madness. The meaningless moments that will cost me meaningful money.
I can’t ignore these known horrors. But I can set them aside for a moment. I can enjoy the dawn of our next glorious adventure through the lens of hope.
As if looking through the eyes of a child.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Here are my Week 1 NFL Power Rankings:
1. Los Angeles Rams (0-0) – According to Ben Fawkes, over the past 30 years, preseason NFL Super Bowl favorites of +500 or shorter have gone 0-for-20 actually winning the title. Since 1990, of the 15 largest preseason favorites, relative to the field, only two (1994 49ers and 2018 Patriots) won the Lombardi Trophy and four others made the Super Bowl.
2. Seattle Seahawks (0-0) – Oh. Hey. How’s it going Super Bowl champions? Seattle heads into the season as unassuming of a defending champion as I can remember in recent years. Seattle is 18-15 against the spread against AFC opponents over the last seven years and 8-8 ATS at home against them. Seattle is 4-0 straight up and ATS against the Patriots since their Super Bowl XLIX loss to the Pats.
3. Buffalo Bills (0-0) – There is a good chance that Buffalo starts the season 2-3. Their opening month schedule is absolutely brutal. Add in a rookie head coach and a massive defensive switch, from the 4-3 to a 3-4, and I think there will be some early season growing pains for the Bills. The road team is 0-5 straight up and against the spread in the Buffalo-Houston series.
4. Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) – Soooooo…..we’re just forgetting that whole Chiefs dynasty thing ever happened? Look, I know everyone wants to turn the page from Kansas City. But I think the idea that they won’t be one of the top teams in the AFC is comical. Patrick Mahomes is still an all-time great. And if his supporting cast stays relatively healthy on offense I think the Chiefs are still one of the best teams in the league. Kansas City’s 18-game swing in one-score games, from a comical 10-0 in 2024 to a morbid 1-9 in 2025, was the largest in NFL history. If they are just average in that category this season they will win double-digit games and be in the January mix.
5. Baltimore Ravens (0-0) – This is another team that I think people are glossing over. John Harbaugh let this team get soft. That’s why he’s no longer in Baltimore. The Ravens finished No. 24 or worse in total defense twice in the last five years – and missed the playoffs both times. The last six times Baltimore has fielded a Top 10 defense they have won an average of 12 games per season. If Jesse Minter sharpens the edge on that side of the ball, Baltimore’s comically easy schedule will have them in the mix for the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
6. Detroit Lions (0-0) – The Lions earned a fourth straight winning season last year. That is the first time they’ve achieved that feat since 1969-1972. Detroit has not had five straight winning seasons since the start of World War II. The NFC North is easily the best, toughest division in football. Detroit has the edge because, by virtue of their ‘last place’ finish last season, the Lions get six games against teams among the worst in the league. That easier schedule will have a huge impact on the North title race.
7. New England Patriots (0-0) – I understand all the numbers pointing toward a Patriots regression this season. And I do think they will take a step back. But they will step back from 14 to 11 wins rather than watching the bottom fall out. New England’s Week 1 matchup with Seattle is just the third Week 1 Super Bowl rematch in league history. The Super Bowl loser covered the rematch the two previous times (2016, 1970). This is only the 12th title game rematch in the following season. Super Bowl losers are just 3-8 SU in the previous 11.
8. Denver Broncos (0-0) – The Broncos have beaten the Las Vegas season win total by five games in back-to-back seasons. That has not happened once this century. The 2005-06 Bears and the 2017-18 Rams came close. Two other teams (2021-2023 Bengals and 2013-2015 Cardinals) beat Vegas by four or more games three straight seasons. But no one has done what Sean Payton and the Broncos have done over the past two seasons. Further, teams that beat their Pythagorean Win Total by 2.0 or more wins (Denver was +3.0 last year) have gone 6-12 against their Las Vegas win total the next season.
9. Houston Texans (0-0) – Unfortunately, Houston doesn’t have nearly enough high-end offensive talent to be considered a legitimate Super Bowl contender. I mean, Kayshon Boutte and David Montgomery were the big offseason adjustments? They also reshuffled the offensive line for the fourth straight year. They still have one of the three best defenses in the NFL, though. Houston has beaten Buffalo each of the past two seasons (both at home) and the Texans are 4-1 straight up against Josh Allen since 2018.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) – The Eagles fall along the same line as Kansas City and Baltimore. Yes, last year things were kind of a mess. But the Eagles are 56-21 in their last 77 games, including a 50-18 mark in the regular season. I think the Eagles enter the 2026 season with a chip on their shoulder and that usually brings out the best in this franchise.
11. Los Angeles Chargers (0-0) – Jim Harbaugh is 6-0 ATS in openers in the NFL after an upset win over the Chiefs last season. For all the talk about Mike McDaniels’ expected impact on the offense, new defensive coordinator Chris O’Leary has bigger shoes to fill. Jesse Minter guided this defense to No. 1 in points allowed in 2024 and No. 5 in total defense in 2025. O’Leary has never been more than a safeties coach and I think he’s a major question mark heading into this season.
12. Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) – I love urgency that Joe Burrow is bringing into this season, openly talking about trying to get back to the Super Bowl. It’s not far-fetched. The Bengals made it to the AFC title game (winning once and nearly winning the second time) in both seasons Burrow had a Top 20 defense. They stop unit has been No. 25 or worse and Al Golden needs to show me a lot more than he did guiding last season’s No. 31 ranked group.
13. Dallas Cowboys (0-0) – I’m leading the shot a little bit here. I should make these losers prove it before I have them knocking on the door of the Top 10. However, at times last season the Cowboys offense looked unstoppable. They scored 30+ eight times last year despite a new system and several injuries. If Dallas can improve to a middle-of-the-pack defense, and I think they’ve added enough bodies to do just that, then I think this team will win the NFC East, a division notoriously tough for repeat winners.
14. Minnesota Vikings (0-0) – I’m bullish on the Vikings this year. A lot of people are riding the fence on Kyler Murray. Not me. Think what you want about the guy: but he can play. And he’s going to be outstanding in Kevin O’Connell’s offense and with this bounty of weapons. O’Connell revitalized the careers of Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones. He also coaxed nine wins out of a Vikings team with J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz and Max Brosmer under center in 2025. Murray is going to have a big season and the Vikings are a great value at +500 to win the NFC North.
15. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) – In 2024, Jacksonville became the first team in NFL history to lose 10 games by one possession. Not surprisingly, they snapped back in a major way last season, improving their win total by nine games in 2025. Per ESPN analytics, there have been 32 teams between 1990-2024 that improved their win total from one season to the next by seven or more games. Those 32 teams saw their wins decline by an average of 3.8 winer (per 17 games) the next season.
16. Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) – Mike Tomlin defied mathematics throughout his entire tenure in Pittsburgh. So once again the Steelers enter a season with most statistical indicators showing a team that was excessively lucky last year and primed for regression this fall. Despite that, I’m slightly bullish on this team and must give Mike McCarthy the credit he deserves. His teams have won 10 or more games in 10 of his last 15 years as a head coach.
17. San Francisco 49ers (0-0) – When healthy, and at their best, the Niners can handle anyone in the NFL. They are a top tier team. But I have them in the teens of this ranking because I don’t think there is any way that they this team’s campaign isn’t scuttled by injuries – AGAIN. Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Trent Williams and Christian McCaffrey are all IR stints waiting to happen. And defensively (Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw, etc.) it’s the same issue.
18. Chicago Bears (0-0) – The last time the Bears beat their Las Vegas season win total in back-to-back seasons was 2005-06. Chicago is 0-5 against their Vegas win total the year after going ‘over’ their wins. The 2025 season was a dream for the Bears and their fans. But every statistical indicator suggests that it was completely unsustainable. Heightened expectations, a more challenging schedule (with a load of primetime games), worse expected turnover numbers (after an insane plus-22 turnover margin last year), and thinner talent on both sides of the ball mean the Bears are likely to disappoint this season. This feels like a year where Chicago takes a step back before taking a big step forward in 2027.
19. Green Bay Packers (0-0) – This feels way too low and I feel like I’m going to look foolish for putting the Packers here. However, I feel like some of the teams in front of Green Bay have higher upside on the roster. Other than Jordan Love and Tucker Craft, where is the Pro Bowl talent on offense? And defensively, this team fell apart without Micah Parsons last season. Green Bay is just 1-4 straight up in its last five games at Minnesota.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) – This feels way too low for a Baker Mayfield-led squad. But I don’t know who to bump to move the Bucs ahead. Tampa Bay closed out last season on a nine-game ATS losing streak and finished 3-12 ATS in their final 15 games. I don’t see any scenario where this Bucs-Bengals game doesn’t turn into a fourth quarter shootout where the quarterback with the ball last wins the game.
21. Indianapolis Colts (0-0) – Indy has been by far the worst team in the NFL in Week 1, going 2-13-1 and 3-12-1 ATS in their openers over the last 16 years. Last year they snapped a streak of 11 straight Week 1 losses when they hammered the Dolphins. You’re going to get sick of hearing this stat, but home underdogs are just 15-35-1 straight-up in Week 1 after going 2-6 SU (but 4-4 ATS) last year.
22. Washington Commanders (0-0) – There are two teams that I really have no idea what to do with heading into the season. The Colts are one. The Commanders are the other. Are these guys any good? Are they garbage? Are they somewhere in the middle? If you throw out last year’s Week 18 win over the Eagles – who were resting their starters – the Commanders are just 2-7 SU in their last games against Philadelphia with just two losses by four points or less.
23. Carolina Panthers (0-0) – There are pieces of this roster that I really like. But I can’t trust this organization. Carolina has gone ‘under’ its Vegas season win total in six of the past eight years. Advanced analytics also had the Panthers ranked as either the third- or fourth-best team in the NFC South last season, despite their division title. Home underdogs are just 15-35-1 SU in Week 1.
24. New York Giants (0-0) – The Giants have been a nightmare in Week 1 over the past 15 years, going 2-13 SU and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 season opening games. Divisional home underdogs are a fantastic 24-9 ATS in Week 1 since 2010. The Giants were 1-7 in one-score games and lost four games last year in which they had a win probability of 90% or more in the fourth quarter. The rest of the league had just 15 of those losses combined. This is clearly a team on the rise.
25. Las Vegas Raiders (0-0) – Believe it or not, the Raiders have been money in their season opening game over the last 12 years. They are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 Week 1 games, with seven outright wins in the last 10 years. Last year they went across country and upset the Super Bowl-bound Patriots.
26. Arizona Cardinals (0-0) – Underdogs of 5.5 or more in Week 1 are 18-6 ATS since the start of the 2021 season. They are 34-21 ATS dating back to Week 1 of the 2016 season and 52-34 (60.4%) ATS since the start of the 2011 season. They only have two new defensive starters for a unit that was No. 29 in points allowed (28.4 PPG) and No. 27 in total defense.
27. Tennessee Titans (0-0) – Since 2003, No. 1 overall pick quarterbacks making their NFL debut are 1-14-1 and have lost those 14 games by an average of 11.3 points per game.
28. New Orleans Saints (0-0) – I’m not buying the Saints. I know a lot of people are predicting their ascendance in the feeble NFC South, a division that has produced a lot of worst-to-first turnarounds. I think Kellen Moore is a good coach with a bright future. But this roster is still bereft of talent on both sides of the ball. They only have one new defensive starter for a group that allowed an average of 27 points per game through the first nine weeks of last season.
29. New York Jets (0-0) – The Jets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 season openers, barely covering last year a 34-32 loss. I think Aaron Glenn is clueless as a head coach. But this is a much more experienced roster so I feel like the floor has been raised a bit. Defensively, the Jets recovered just four of 14 fumbles last year and became the first team in NFL history to go the entire season without an interception. Per Bill Barnwell, since 1990 there have been 34 teams that have finished a season with a turnover margin of -16 or worse. Those teams improved their turnover margin by an average of nearly 20 turnovers the next season and improved their record by an average of 2.8 wins.
30. Atlanta Falcons (0-0) – This is another team that has flipped more than half of its roster. Atlanta has seven rookies and 22 offseason acquisitions on their 53-man roster. Despite that, Atlanta has the second-oldest roster in the NFL so this isn’t some young, up-and-coming group. Atlanta is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 season openers, losing at home to Tampa Bay last year.
31. Cleveland Browns (0-0) – The Browns are 3-23-1 in Week 1 dating back to 1998 and they are 2-16-1 in their last 19 season opening games. Cleveland is just 5-5 ATS in its last 10 Week 1 games. They are 3-1 ATS against divisional opponents, though, meaning they are 2-4 ATS against everyone else.
32. Miami Dolphins (0-0) – This is a clear rebuilding season for the Dolphins, who aren’t even trying to hide their tanking plans. Miami has 12 rookies on their 53-man roster. Nineteen other guys – including all three quarterbacks – were offseason pickups. Six other returnees were rookies last year. That is 31 new players and 37 total guys – out of 53 – that have been in Miami for fewer than 18 months. Add in a new coaching staff and new front office and this is a Dolphins team starting completely from the ground floor. Miami is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 1.
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