Baseball Handicapping Articles
MLB Predictions: 2013 Pitching Wins Head-To-Head Props Odds
by Alan Matthews - 3/15/2013
Is this finally the year we see a starting pitcher win 30 games for the first time since Detroit's Denny McLain went 31-6 in 1968? Uh, that's a big fat no. Among the Major League Baseball single-season magic numbers that will never be reached again (.400, 73, 56, 191), include that 30-win barrier.
MLB Handicapping: Pitchers Who Could Disappoint
by Trevor Whenham - 3/15/2013
The pitcher is often the biggest reason why bettors bet on or against a team in baseball. That means that having an opinion or perception of a player that isn’t accurate can be very costly. That’s a problem that public bettors often face because they don’t adjust their opinions to reality very quickly. Heading into every season, it’s a good exercise to look at the pitchers that could be surprisingly good, and those that may not be able to meet massive expectations.
WBC Baseball Picks and Odds: Puerto Rico at United States
by Alan Matthews - 3/11/2013
Despite a surprising loss to Team Mexico in its World Baseball Classic opener - I recommended the Mexicans on the runline in that one and also hit the “under” -- the United States avoided disaster by advancing to the second round of the WBC and open double-elimination play against Puerto Rico on Tuesday night at Marlins Park in Miami.
2013 NL West Picks and MLB Betting Predictions
by Robert Ferringo - 3/9/2013
Style or substance? Flash or finish? Hype or heart? Those are truly the themes of the 2013 National League West. The Los Angeles Dodgers have dominated the headlines on the West Coast this offseason, and they enter the season with a team that is basically a fantasy baseball team roster. The Dodgers, as well as the Colorado Rockies with their highly-touted talents, have the name recognition and star power to lure in bettors.
2013 AL Central Picks and MLB Betting Predictions
by Robert Ferringo - 3/9/2013
The A.L. Central will once again battle its National League counterpart for the title of The Worst Division in Baseball. And last year the A.L. Central teams certainly made a case. Three of the five teams lost 90 or more games, their division winner, Detroit, did go to the World Series. But they also entered the playoffs with just the seventh-best record in baseball.
2013 AL East Picks and MLB Betting Predictions
by Robert Ferringo - 3/8/2013
For the first time in what feels like forever, neither the Boston Red Sox nor the New York Yankees enter the season expected to win the division. The Red Sox are in the beginning stages of a massive franchise overhaul after last summer’s housecleaning. The Yankees are stubbornly holding onto their aging core of veterans and hoping that they have just one last run in them.
2013 AL West Picks and MLB Betting Predictions
by Robert Ferringo - 3/8/2013
Last year it was, “poor, poor Seattle Mariners.” Seattle was clearly the worst team in a loaded American League West, and they entered the season with nothing to look forward to but a beating by the Angels and Rangers. But this year the Houston Astros are going to make the 2012 Mariners seem like a division champ.
WBC Baseball Picks and Odds: Mexico at United States
by Alan Matthews - 3/8/2013
The United States begins its World Baseball Classic pool play on Friday night at Chase Field, home of the Arizona Diamondbacks, against Mexico. The Americans were the slight WBC betting favorites entering the tournament, but one could argue that's no longer the case.
Finding MLB Early-Season Betting Value: Possible Breakout Pitchers
by Trevor Whenham - 3/5/2013
This year, we are just not going to see a pitcher breakout like R.A. Dickey did last year. We really never have, and we may never again. This time last year he was a 37-year-old with a 41-50 career record on four teams. Few people knew his name. Now he’s a Cy Young winner and a high-priced acquisition for the rising Blue Jays. It’s the ultimate in Cinderella stories.
MLB Predictions: 2013 RBI Head-To-Head Props Odds
by Alan Matthews - 3/5/2013
We all know that Roger Maris' home-run record was shattered by Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa. We also pretty much know all three of those guys were juicing because, hey, "chicks dig the long ball." What is a bit surprising to me is that a player from baseball's steroid era didn't more seriously threaten the major-league single-season RBI record of 191 set by Hack Wilson in 1930 (155 games).
MLB Handicapping: How World Baseball Classic Will Affect Upcoming Season
by Trevor Whenham - 3/5/2013
The World Baseball Classic is underway. As a handicapper, I don’t find the Classic itself particularly interesting. It would be if it was what it was designed to be, but the American team is a shadow of what it could be, the Japanese don’t have a single Major Leaguer on the roster, and injuries have made a still-impressive Dominican team less than what it could be. It’s like an all-star game that few show up for — an extended Pro Bowl.
MLB Betting Predictions: 2013 Home Run Head-To-Head Odds
by Alan Matthews - 3/1/2013
Spring Training games are well underway in Florida and Arizona, and the 2013 Major League Baseball season begins four weeks from Sunday with Houston’s debut in the American League against Texas. Thus, the books are starting to really roll out the player props for the season.
MLB Spring Training Handicapping: Teams with Betting Value
by Trevor Whenham - 2/26/2013
Performance in Spring Training isn’t a very good indicator of what is going to happen in the regular season. The reason is obvious — the games don’t count, so teams aren’t always motivated to win them. It’s more important to do what is needed to get ready for the season than to win. That means different teams field different lineups, with some veterans playing a lot while others barely play at all.
2013 World Baseball Classic Picks and Betting Odds
by Alan Matthews - 2/26/2013
I was one of those who thought that Major League Baseball’s decision to debut the World Baseball Classic was a great idea seven years ago. The NBA and NHL get popularity boosts with the Olympics (and to a lesser extent the World Championship), but Major League Baseball didn’t have that type of event. Sure, baseball was in the Olympics, but no major-league stars could play because it was in the summer. And now it’s no longer an Olympic sport, with the final baseball competition (and softball) being staged at the 2008 Games in Beijing.
2013 MLB Predictions: Home Run Leader Odds and Betting Picks
by Alan Matthews - 2/25/2013
In the spirit of full disclosure, I must admit that I was 0-for-2 in picking the 2012 home run leader in Major League Baseball. Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera led MLB with 44 dingers on the way to the first Triple Crown in the sport in 45 years. In my spring home run leader story, I wrote that while Cabrera was going to see more pitches with Prince Fielder hitting behind him, Comerica Park hurt Cabrera’s chances a bit and that because Miggy was such a high average hitter that he wouldn’t be swinging for the fences as much as other sluggers.
MLB Handicapping: Astros Move to AL West
by Trevor Whenham - 2/20/2013
Fifteen years after the Milwaukee Brewers left the American League to join the NL Central, that division is losing a team back to the American League. The Houston Astros are heading to the AL West — arguably the toughest division in baseball right now.
MLB Handicapping: Teams Poised for Huge Turnarounds
by Trevor Whenham - 2/18/2013
In 2011 the Baltimore Orioles won 69 games. Oakland was only slightly better with 74 wins. Neither win total is particularly impressive. Last year, though, both teams climbed from the depths of misery to the playoffs. Oakland won the AL West, and Baltimore easily claimed a wild-card berth. Despite the challenges of building a winner in the major leagues, a turnaround of that variety is far from uncommon. Teams that make those moves can be wildly profitable for bettors who can spot them early — they can deliver real value until the public notices they are a much-improved team, and they can offer real value in the futures markets as well.
Remaining MLB Free Agents Still Could Shape Playoff Teams
by Alan Matthews - 2/8/2013
Perhaps the best four words in sports, especially for those living in cold-weather climates (enjoying that blizzard Northeast?), are: “pitchers and catchers report.” And, indeed, the first pitchers and catchers will report for Spring Training on Sunday, with the Cleveland Indians and Colorado Rockies getting things started. The full squads will have reported to every team by next weekend, and Spring Training games begin Feb. 22.
MLB Odds and Predictions: World Series Game 3 Props and Picks
by Alan Matthews - 10/26/2012
Well, I can bask in the glow of taking the San Francisco Giants to beat Tigers ace Justin Verlander in Game 1 of the 2012 World Series, but that prediction of Detroit winning the Fall Classic in six games isn’t looking too sharp at the moment with the Motor City Kitties down 2-0.
MLB Odds and Predictions: World Series Game 1 and Series Props
by Alan Matthews - 10/23/2012
There really can’t be much argument that Detroit’s Justin Verlander is the best pitcher in baseball (even though he won’t repeat as AL Cy Young winner). Yet it’s because of Verlander that the Tigers won’t have home-field advantage vs. San Francisco when the World Series begins Wednesday.
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