2023 Dallas Cowboys Predictions with Season Win Total Odds
Look man, I hate the Dallas Cowboys just as much as the next guy.
But if there is money to be made betting on the NFL, I’m going to make it. And the bottom line is that as deplorable as the Cowboys, their owner, their fans, and everything else connected to this phony, repulsive clan are, this team has been paying out.
Dallas has been No. 1 in the NFL against the spread over the past two seasons. They are 24-10 ATS during the regular season. What is even more impressive is that the Cowboys have beaten those spreads despite their number being inflated due to their outsized popularity.
Hate them all you want; the Cowboys are stacked with talent.
The silver lining, though, is that as good as this team is, they have virtually zero chance of winning that Super Bowl trophy that decrepit crypt keeper Jerry Jones is so desperate to claim before his death.
Championships are won on the shoulders of coaches and quarterbacks. Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott have shown us who they are. And at no point have they shown us that their shoulders are capable of hoisting this year’s Lombardi Trophy.
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DALLAS COWBOYS 2023 OFFENSE
McCarthy ran offensive coordinator Kellen Moore out of town this offseason. And why not? All Moore did was produce two No. 1 offenses in the past four seasons and three Top 6 scoring offenses.
Now McCarthy, the irretractable pud, is free to run this group into the ground.
The offensive line is still one of the best in football. Tyron Smith is entering his 13th season, and Zack Martin has had his injury issues. Dallas also doesn’t have the same caliber backups as they have in year’s past. So, if injuries hit here, it could be trouble.
Tony Pollard is finally taking over the role of prime ball carrier after a Pro Bowl effort last season. I expect him to tear every ligament in both knees sometime around Week 5.
Dallas was able to haul in ultra-productive Brandin Cooks this offseason. He will compliment stallion CeeDee Lamb and No. 3 wideout Michael Gallup. The Cowboys won’t be as strong at tight end but should still be better throwing the ball.
Part of the reason Moore is gone is because Moore didn’t “run the ball enough”. (Dallas was No. 6 in the league in rushing attempts.) Look for McCarthy to shrink the creativity on this side of the ball and derp his way to a blander running scheme.
DALLAS COWBOYS 2023 DEFENSE
The Cowboys have finished in the Top 10 in scoring defense each of the past two seasons. Dallas has overachieved in each of those two campaigns, though, finishing in the Top 5 in defensive yards per point both years.
Dallas is one of only three teams to finish in the Top 10 in DYPP in the past two seasons. No team in the league has pulled that off the last three years.
Micah Parsons is a demigod and a nuevo Lawrence Taylor. He is the straw that stirs the drink on this side of the ball, and his 26.5 sacks in his first two seasons are just scratching the surface.
The defensive line is stocked with talent and depth. And that was the case even before they used their top pick on Mazi Smith.
The weakest group on Dallas’ roster is linebackers. Leighton Vander Esch has never been able to tap into the potential he showed as a second-team All-Pro rookie. He’s still the Cowboys’ best answer in the middle.
Second-year man Damone Clark hasn’t been anything special, and depth at the position is nonexistent.
Finally, Stephen Gilmore was the splashy offseason pick up. He makes the Cowboys secondary one of the toughest in the NFC. Safeties Malik Hooker and Donovan Wilson are rock solid. And corner Trevon Diggs’ boom-or-bust approach makes him an X-factor.
DALLAS COWBOYS 2023 SCHEDULE
Sun, Sep 10 8:20 PM @ New York Giants
Sun, Sep 17 4:25 PM vs. New York Jets
Sun, Sep 24 4:25 PM @ Arizona Cardinals
Sun, Oct 1 4:25 PM vs. New England Patriots
Sun, Oct 8 8:20 PM @ San Francisco 49ers
Mon, Oct 16 8:15 PM @ Los Angeles Chargers
Sun, Oct 29 1:00 PM vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sun, Nov 5 4:25 PM @ Philadelphia Eagles
Sun, Nov 12 4:25 PM vs. New York Giants
Sun, Nov 19 1:00 PM @ Carolina Panthers
Thu, Nov 23 4:30 PM vs. Washington Redskins
Thu, Nov 30 8:15 PM vs. Seattle Seahawks
Sun, Dec 10 8:20 PM vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sun, Dec 17 4:25 PM @ Buffalo Bills
Sun, Dec 24 4:25 PM @ Miami Dolphins
Sat, Dec 30 8:15 PM vs. Detroit Lions
Sun, Jan 7 7:00 PM @ Washington Redskins
DALLAS COWBOYS 2023 SEASON PICKS AND PREDICTIONS
I don’t think that Dallas is a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
The number of high-end talents on the roster – Parsons, Gilmore, Hooker, Pollard, Lamb, Martin – means they should be a player in the NFC, though.
Ditching Moore was a mistake. And trusting McCarthy to run the offense, a man whose game management incompetence is on weekly display, is just compounding that initial mistake.
Dallas’ +10 turnover differential and Top 5 rankings in both offensive and defensive yards per point all seem unsustainable. The Cowboys also beat their Pythagorean Win Expectation by nearly a game.
The schedule also doesn’t help. Crossover games against the AFC East are no picnic. And Dallas has six primetime games, which can set up a letdown the next week. They play four of their first six on the road, and they have three short weeks to contend with.
I think Dallas is going to come back to earth. They are one of the most public teams in the NFL. There is no way that they will be able to sustain their incredible run of ATS success.
It will start with Dallas failing to beat their season win total. If your book has it at 9.5, then it is a no play. If it is set at 10.5, then I like the ‘under’.
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