2025 Dallas Cowboys Predictions with Odds to Win the Super Bowl and Season Win Totals

by Spencer Toth - 8/4/2025

On paper, a healthy Dallas Cowboys lineup has the potential to be one of the legitimate contenders in the NFC. However, recent seasons have not gone as planned, and the franchise is still searching for its first NFC Championship game appearance in 30 years. Dak Prescott is capable of leading this team offensively, but off-field issues and a lack of leadership from owner/GM/tyrant Jerry Jones continue to be their downfall. After three straight 12-5 seasons, Dallas plummeted out of the playoffs with a 7-10 record last year. Can this be the year Dallas bounces back and finally extinguishes their playoff demons, or will it be another disappointing season for America’s team as they spend January on the sidelines?

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Offseason Recap

The Cowboys were very active in the offseason as they look to improve on their 7-10 record from last season. Their biggest move was bringing in George Pickens from the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pickens will slot in nicely alongside CeeDee Lamb, and the duo has the potential to be one of the best one-two punches in the league. Having not one, but two truly dominant receivers is a recipe for success, and Pickens and Lamb have already both labeled each other ‘co-WR1s’ in Dallas. Pickens was not the only skill position player to join the Cowboys, as they completely revamped their running back room. Rico Dowdle was sent packing, and the Cowboys brought in both Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders to lead the charge. Williams was a fantastic back for the Broncos last year, but his consistent fumbles have capped his effectiveness in this offense. Miles Sanders has proven he is capable of maintaining efficiency and volume in the backfield, but he had a pair of disappointing seasons in Carolina. Rounding out the running back room is Jaydon Blue. Blue was a crucial piece of the Texas roster last year and will be eager to burst onto the scene in Dallas. Williams and Sanders both have big-league experience, but a strong start from Blue could send him shooting up the depth chart as the season goes on. However, the offensive line has lost a huge piece in Zack Martin, as the 11-year veteran spent his entire career with Dallas before retiring this offseason.

On defense, the Cowboys revamped their pass rush, but there are still big question marks looming around Micah Parsons. The All-Pro defensive end is still without a contract and has requested a trade from Dallas. The ongoing Parsons situation has turned into the leading headline in Dallas this offseason, but that shouldn’t overshadow the crafty moves they have made on the defensive side of the ball. Dante Fowler Jr. returns to Dallas after an incredible season with Washington last year. His 10.5 sacks and 39 tackles last season were both his most since 2018, and he will be hoping to be the spark the Cowboys' defense has been missing.

Season Expectations

The Dallas Cowboys were without Dak Prescott for the second half of the 2024 season, but that is far from an excuse for their poor play and subsequent 7-10 record. The Cowboys were only 3-5 when Prescott got hurt, and they failed to score more than 25 points in a game after their Week 1 drubbing of the Cleveland Browns. Prescott had the worst season of his career by a significant margin in 2024 and will need to perform better to justify his massive cap hit for 2025. He has no shortage of weapons with Lamb and Pickens out wide, and this will truly be a make-or-break season for Dallas. If the Cowboys don’t make the playoffs, or at the very least finish .500 or better, Jerry Jones will likely want to blow it up heading into the 2026 season.

While Prescott was certainly the biggest injury in Dallas last year, the loss of Lamb on offense, and players like Bland and Parsons on defense didn’t help either. The Dallas defense finished 31st in the league behind the historically bad Carolina Panthers in terms of points allowed. They got crushed through the air despite posting the second-best sack percentage at 9.22%, and the Parsons standoff is certainly not filling the fanbase with confidence heading into this season.

Dallas Cowboys Schedule Breakdown

The Dallas Cowboys will be thankful the New York Giants are alongside them in the NFC East, but the easy matchups end there for the Cowboys. The two NFC finalists are both alongside Dallas in their division, including the Super Bowl Champions, the Philadelphia Eagles. Philadelphia and Washington are expected to run the division again this season, and Dallas will struggle in those four divisional matchups. To make matters worse, Dallas also has to face off against the daunting NFC North and the AFC West, giving them the 5th hardest schedule in the NFL. While they close out the year with some tough matchups, the trajectory of this team will be decided in the first six weeks of the season. After opening up the year against the Eagles, Dallas faces off against the Bears, Giants, Panthers, Jets, and Packers over the next five weeks. Four of those five teams finished well below .500 last year, and Dallas will need to emerge 4-2 or better if they hope to challenge for a playoff spot down the stretch. Six of their final seven opponents finished 11-6 or better last year, making an early hole for Dallas a certain death sentence.

Dallas Cowboys Odds

The Dallas Cowboys finished 7-10 last season and are expected to finish in that range again this year. The expectation will always be a playoff spot in Dallas, but the oddmakers have given them just a 7.5 win total this season. The 8.5 win total is not far off with +120 odds for the over, but even that is unlikely to secure them a Wild Card spot given their difficult division. Regarding a playoff spot, Dallas is +190 to be relevant in January and has -240 odds to miss the playoffs for a second straight season. A big season from Dak Prescott could allow the +2000 NFC championship odds to age nicely, but that feels incredibly far-fetched given what has gone on both on and off the field for the Cowboys this offseason.

2025 Dallas Cowboys Season Predictions and Best Bets

While I will not be calling for a Super Bowl in Dallas, I do expect the Cowboys to have a slightly better season than expected. They managed to go 7-10 last season despite a revolving door at the quarterback position, and an 8-9 record or better doesn’t feel like too much of an ask for a team with this kind of talent. Dak Prescott had the worst season of his career, but the added weapons and an extended offseason to think over his actions will see him bounce back this season. A playoff spot at +190 is too much to ask, but over both 7.5 and 8.5 wins is certainly possible. The Dallas defense is due to regress, their offense will look better, and if they don’t shoot themselves in the foot on special teams, they will get off to a hot start. Once the belief seeps back into this franchise, the Cowboys will manage to win more games than they lose. The better price on 8.5 wins vs 7.5 wins is certainly tempting, but we will play it safe for our top pick while sprinkling on the plus money price too. Don’t bother taking any Dallas playoff props, as even a respectable regular season where they squeak into the Wild Card will not see the Cowboys enter the playoffs with shorter than +2000 odds to win the NFC. And do you want to put your money on a Dallas Super Bowl run… Didn’t think so.

Top Pick: Dallas Cowboys Over 7.5 Wins -130

Pick: Dallas Cowboys Over 8.5 Wins +120

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Start:	August 29, 2025 @ 9:30 PM
Expert:	Scott Spreitzer
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2025 Dallas Cowboys Predictions with Odds to Win the Super Bowl and Season Win Totals

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