2023 New York Giants Predictions with Season Win Total Odds
Coaching counts.
The New York Giants have been clueless and hapless since Tom Coughlin was kicked to the curb following the 2015 season. They hired one chud after another – Bob McAdoo, Pat Shurmur and Joe Judge were all fired before their third season – and have been a laughingstock while posting eight losing seasons in the last 10 years.
Then the G-Men managed to poach Brian Daboll from the Buffalo Bills and Don Martindale from the Baltimore Ravens and, voila, the Giants made it back to the postseason and back to respectability.
Daboll and Martindale coaxed a playoff appearance out of a Giants team that finished 9-7-1 despite being outscored on the season. They were able to scheme around talent deficiencies on both sides of the ball, get a little lucky in some close games, and play relatively mistake-free football.
Coaching counts. But it can only get you so far. Eventually talent will win out. And the Giants could be running face first into that cold, hard reality this season.
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NEW YORK GIANTS 2023 OFFENSE
Daboll and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka did the Lord’s work with this offense last season. The Giants overcame Daniel Jones and ridiculous attrition in the wide receiver room to finish No. 15 in scoring and No. 18 in yards.
New York’s front office made a colossal mistake declining Jones’ fifth-year option prior to last season. Now they are paying this very mediocre quarterback $40 million per year. That has blown a hole in their budget for other positions.
Jones, who had been an injury-prone turnover machine in his first three seasons, had his most productive year as a pro under Daboll. He set a career high in completion percentage (67.2%) and a low in interceptions (5) while posting a 9-6-1 record as a starter.
Jones has some physical traits that are comparable to Daboll’s former quarterback, Josh Allen. If the Giants head coach can turn Jones into a poor man’s Allen, then the G-Men should be set at the position for years.
Saquon Barkley was dominant last year, earning nearly 1,700 yards from scrimmage and 10 rushing touchdowns in 16 games of work. New York used the franchise tag on their star runner – who has major issues staying healthy – and Barkley’s contract situation will be a dark cloud over this season. He still enters the season as the first option in this offense.
The Giants are going with quantity over quality in the receiving game. They made a brilliant deal to acquire Pro Bowl tight end Darren Waller, giving Jones a No. 1 target. Darius Slayton is excessively underrated; he is a baller and a big play receiver. Beyond that is a mix of mediocrity with guys like Parris Campbell, Sterling Shepard, and Jamison Crowder.
New York posted the fewest plays of 20 or more yards in football last year (43). They prioritized taking care of the ball over explosiveness and tallied just 16 giveaways all season.
With more healthy options in the passing game, it will be interesting to see if Daboll opens things up more in his second year with Jones.
NEW YORK GIANTS 2023 DEFENSE
The Giants defense is…OK.
Wink Martindale was able to scheme around a lack of talent last season. Martindale’s blitz-heavy approach took opponents by surprise, and New York’s No. 10 red zone defense helped mitigate any problems on that side of the ball.
The Giants were just No. 25 in total defense last season, and they have posted just two Top 10 units in the past nine years.
Dexter Lawrence and Leonard Williams are two of the best players in the league at their respective positions on the defensive line. They are irreplaceable. And if anything happens to either, then this unit is in trouble.
The Giants back seven is one of the weakest in football. The starters are just average, and there is absolutely no depth of any kind.
Bobby Okereke was a splashy free agent signing. I don’t know that he is going to be enough to elevate the clear weak line on defense. New York was No. 27 in rushing defense last year, and they are hoping for a big second-year leap from Kayvon Thibodeaux. The Giants will also be without Jarrad Davis, who had surgery this summer.
Adoree Jackson and Xavier McKinney are rock solid in the secondary, and Bobby McCain is replacement level. They may have to start rookie Deonte Banks at one corner spot, and nickel Cor’Dale Flott isn’t anything to write home about.
Martindale worked his magic last season. But with a dearth of true talent on this side of the ball, I don’t think he’ll be able to pull off the same trick this year.
NEW YORK GIANTS 2023 SCHEDULE
The Giants also have a brutal schedule.
The NFC East might be the best division in the conference. And crossover games against the outstanding AFC East is a tough draw. One of their swing games comes at Las Vegas smack in between emotional games versus the Jets and at the Cowboys. Another comes at New Orleans off a Monday Night Football game and prior to a big game with the Eagles.
Week 1: 9/10 vs. Dallas Cowboys, 8:20 PM, NBC
Week 2: 9/17 at Arizona Cardinals, 4 PM, FOX
Week 3: 9/21 at San Francisco 49ers (Thursday), 8:15 PM, Amazon Prime
Week 4: 10/2 vs. Seattle Seahawks (Monday), 8:15 PM, ESPN
Week 5: 10/8 at Miami Dolphins, 1 PM, FOX
Week 6: 10/15 at Buffalo Bills, 8:20 PM, NBC
Week 7: 10/22 vs. Washington Commanders, 1 PM, CBS
Week 8: 10/29 vs. New York Jets, 1 PM, CBS
Week 9: 11/5 at Las Vegas Raiders, 4:25 PM, FOX
Week 10: 11/12 at Dallas Cowboys, 4:25 PM, FOX
Week 11: 11/19 at Washington Commanders, 1 PM, FOX
Week 12: 11/26 vs. New England Patriots, 1 PM, FOX
Week 13: BYE WEEK
Week 14: 12/11 vs. Green Bay Packers (Monday), 8:15 PM, ABC
Week 15: 12/17 at New Orleans Saints, 1 PM, FOX
Week 16: 12/25 at Philadelphia Eagles, 4:30 PM, FOX
Week 17: 12/31 vs. Los Angeles Rams, 1 PM, FOX
Week 18: TBD vs. Philadelphia Eagles, TBD, TBD
NEW YORK GIANTS 2023 SEASON PICKS AND PREDICTIONS
The Giants have some clear indicators pointing downward this season. They went 5-1 in games decided by one score last year, and they were Pythagorean overachievers, beating their expected wins number by 1.3 games.
Further, the Giants were playoff participants, and weak ones at that, as one of the last teams in the field. As we’ve noted repeatedly, roughly half of NFL teams that make the postseason one year don’t make it the next.
From 2017 to 2021, the Giants were tied with the Jets for the fewest wins in football, going a pathetic 22-59 over that five-year stretch. Last year was just the second time since 2013 (10 seasons) that New York finished the year with a winning record, and it was the sixth straight season they finished with a negative point differential.
New York was a nine-win playoff team last year. Their season win total for this year is 7.5. That tells you all you need to know about what the oddsmakers think of the talent on this team.
The number is spot-on, so it won’t be a play for me. If you must play it, then I would go ‘under’. Daboll won’t let them fall off a cliff, but I see six or seven wins out of this overmatched group.
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