NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 1
Welcome to a new season of Doc's Sports NFL Confidence Pool coverage. Each week, we break down every matchup, pick a straight-up (SU) winner, and assign a point value based on how confident we are in each selection. This format focuses solely on identifying outright winners, not against-the-spread (ATS) results.
It's also important not to confuse the confidence pool with a survivor pool, where you choose one team per week and can't use that team again. Still, our confidence picks can support your survivor strategy.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
16 points- Philadelphia Eagles over Dallas Cowboys (TNF): The defending Super Bowl champions open the season at home, ready to stomp their division rivals. Dallas talks a big game but rarely delivers in big spots. Philadelphia's revamped defense will make life miserable for Dak Prescott all night.
15 points- Kansas City Chiefs over Los Angeles Chargers (FNF): Even on neutral turf in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Patrick Mahomes and company remind everyone why they're perennial contenders. Kansas City's tight end, Travis Swift, er, I mean Kelce, will exploit mismatches in the secondary for big gains.
14 points – Cincinnati Bengals over Cleveland Browns: Cincinnati sets the tone early with sharp execution and clean pocket protection. Burrow spreads the ball efficiently, exposing soft spots in Cleveland's coverage. The Browns struggle to sustain drives, and their defensive front wears down in the second half. The Bengals close strong with a pair of clock-killing possessions.
13 points – San Francisco 49ers over Seattle Seahawks: San Francisco's physicality and depth overwhelm Seattle in all phases. The 49ers dominate the line of scrimmage, forcing the Seahawks into predictable passing situations. Purdy stays composed, hitting intermediate routes and letting the run game control tempo. Seattle fades late as San Francisco pulls away.
12 points – Green Bay Packers over Detroit Lions: Green Bay capitalizes on home-field energy and crisp offensive timing. The Packers stretch Detroit's secondary with layered route concepts and finish drives with precision. The Lions show flashes but can't match Green Bay's consistency, especially in the second half when the Packers tighten up defensively.
11 points – Los Angeles Rams over Houston Texans: The Rams lean on veteran poise and clean protection to control the pace. Stafford finds rhythm early, attacking Houston's zone looks and converting key third downs. The Texans hang around but fail to generate pressure or finish drives. Los Angeles seals it with a late scoring drive and a red zone stop.
10 points – Arizona Cardinals over New Orleans Saints: Arizona's tempo and spacing stretch New Orleans thin from the start. Murray keeps the defense guessing with quick reads and off-script movement. The Cardinals' pass rush creates disruption, forcing turnovers and flipping field position. New Orleans struggles to respond as Arizona builds a two-score cushion.
9 points – Washington Commanders over New York Giants: Washington controls possession and keeps the Giants off balance with a steady mix of short passes and power runs. The Commanders' defense clamps down in key moments, forcing stalled drives and winning the field position battle. New York's offense lacks rhythm, and Washington grinds out a clean home win.
8 points – Miami Dolphins over Indianapolis Colts: Miami's speed and timing overwhelm Indy's defense, especially in space. The Dolphins control tempo early, forcing the Colts into predictable passing downs. A few explosive plays flip field position, and Miami's defensive pressure keeps the game tilted.
7 points – Jacksonville Jaguars over Carolina Panthers: Jacksonville controls the pace at home, exploiting Carolina's defensive gaps with sharp execution. The Jaguars' revamped front forces errant throws and keeps the Panthers off schedule. A few short fields and clean red zone finishes seal it.
6 points – New England Patriots over Las Vegas Raiders: New England's defense sets the tone early, collapsing pockets and forcing the Raiders into short, ineffective throws. The Patriots control field position and capitalize on breakdowns in coverage, building a steady lead through efficient drives. Vegas struggles to adjust, and New England closes out with disciplined clock management.
5 points – New York Jets over Pittsburgh Steelers: The Jets dominate the trenches, shutting down Pittsburgh's run game and forcing long-yardage situations. New York's defense creates pressure and limits explosive plays, while the offense strings together enough scoring drives to stay ahead. A late stop seals a hard-fought win at home.
4 points – Denver Broncos over Tennessee Titans: Denver's offense finds rhythm early, using motion and spacing to stretch Tennessee's defense. The Broncos maintain tempo and wear down the Titans as the altitude becomes a factor in the second half. A pair of sustained drives and a key takeaway help Denver pull away late.
3 points – Atlanta Falcons over Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Atlanta mixes short passes and power runs to keep Tampa's defense guessing. The Falcons control the clock and finish drives, while the Buccaneers struggle to generate consistent answers. A few chunk plays in the second half give Atlanta the cushion it needs to close out a divisional win.
2 points – Buffalo Bills over Baltimore Ravens (SNF): In a primetime shootout, Buffalo matches Baltimore's intensity, trading scores and leaning on Josh Allen's arm to stay in control. The Bills' defense tightens in the fourth quarter, forcing a key stop and setting up the go-ahead drive. The home crowd fuels the final push.
1 point – Chicago Bears over Minnesota Vikings (MNF): Chicago spreads the field and forces Minnesota into reactive coverage, creating separation and clean throwing lanes. The Bears sustain drives and convert in the red zone, while the Vikings struggle to finish possessions. A late defensive stand preserves the upset win under the lights.
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