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NFL First Coach Fired Props Predictions and Betting Odds

by Mike Allen - 8/3/2023

First NFL head coach fired props predictions Josh McDaniels Las Vegas Raiders

The NFL Preseason hasn’t even started yet, and here we are, binoculars up, and on the lookout for the first big dumpster fire of the year. There is nothing like seeing others fail to make us feel better about our struggling team.

I don’t think the first head coach to be fired will be from one of the teams projected to lose the most games like the Arizona Cardinals, for example. They don’t have the highest of expectations, obviously, so they are much less likely to set their skipper to sail before the midpoint of the NFL regular season.

Today, we want to focus on the teams with the owners who have just about had enough. I have heard rumblings that Mike McCarthy could be on the hot seat down in Big D, but I'm not buying it.

I personally dislike Dallas quite a bit, but I think he has done a great job with them so far. There are also rumors that the new owner in our nation’s capital could have a shorter leash than Dan Snyder has had in the past with his head coaches.

T-Town's Todd Bowles is one of the favorites to get to steppin'. Baker Mayfield could surprise early in the season. He usually struggles after opposing teams make their initial adjustments.

There are some other candidates with much better odds, so let’s check the payouts, and pick a couple of NFL head coaches to be the first to be fired in the 2023 regular season.

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Betting Odds for the First NFL Head Coach to be Fired

  • Mike McCarthy: +600
  • Todd Bowles: +600
  • Josh McDaniels: +700
  • Ron Rivera: +700
  • Kevin Stefanski: +900
  • Dennis Allen: +900
  • Matt Eberflus: +1400
  • Matt Lafluer: +1400
  • Mike Vrabel: +1400
  • Brandon Staley: +1600
  • Arthur Smith: +1600

We just touched on it. I don't see McCarthy getting fired first. He has had to deal with a lot of QB drama, and I don't see Jerry Jones getting rid of Mike McCarthy in less than three seasons when he held onto Jason Garrett for nearly a decade.

Josh McDaniels is our first NFL head coaching candidate to be canned. Whether it was father or son, the Raiders front office has historically been rather volatile and unpredictable.

With Derek Carr out at quarterback, we know McDaniels is next. The guy has done nothing but lose and blame his team as a head coach, but I think he may be spared, at least for the first half of the year.

Jimmy Garoppolo will be the Las Vegas Raiders starter to kick off the season, and it's safe to assume that the focus will be on him before it shifts back to the McDaniels.

I have the Cleveland Browns projected to go over their win total this season, and quarterback DeShaun Watson contending for NFL Comeback Player of the Year.

I'm just kidding. If you think the NFL is going to give that award to him over the Bills' Damar Hamlin, then you don't watch enough television.

By the way, Hamlin is currently (-400) to win it!

We are still only crossing coaches off the list. When will we circle one?

I don't know if it will be a team with a new QB. Let's pretend said quarterback's play is sub-par to start the year. The QB will likely get the initial blame. If he plays well, the team is likely to win and thus not fire the coach.

We have to bring this back to McDaniels in Vegas, though. He may be the worst head coach among our betting favorites.

For (+700), let’s make Josh McDaniels our first eviction prediction.

Pick: Josh McDaniels (+700)

I want to add someone else who I beleive is also in over their head. Surprisingly, that is Brandon Staley in LA. He has led the Chargers to double-digit win seasons in his first two years. The guy was a defensive coordinator for one year with the Rams, and only has two years as the leader of the Bolts.

In life, expectations suck. I try to avoid them at all costs, but Staley has an entirely different set of them to live up to in LA than any of the previously mentioned head coaches.

Pick: Brandon Staley (+1600)

In Conclusion

We will see at least a few train wrecks this year in the NFL. We always do.

The Las Vegas Raiders' McDaniels has forever failed as a head coach, and if the inconsistent Jimmy G can't carry him throughout the season, I see him likely on the lookout for an offensive coordinator position.

The LA Chargers look like the LA Rams of a few years ago. Their roster is stacked and led by a high-level quarterback still on his rookie contract. I rate Herbert much higher than I ever did Goff, though. Therefore, hopes are high in LA for third-year head coach Staley.

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