NFL Handicapping: Public Teams
by Trevor Whenham - 9/4/2009


No matter what sport you are handicapping you  have to consider which teams are public teams, and what effect those teams will  have on the lines of their games. Simply put, a public team is one which the  public - generally the less sophisticated bettors - are likely to back  basically regardless of the spread, their opponent, or the other usual factors  that would affect the outcome of the game and the handicapping decisions.  Whether it's because of star players, a tradition of success, or  disproportionately high media coverage people tend to think that these teams  are practically unbeatable, and they bet them accordingly. Oddsmakers are very aware of  public teams, and they try their best to turn those situations to their best  advantage. They may be able to set a line for a public team higher than they  normally would. They know that the public won't likely be deterred from backing  their favorite, and the extra points on the line decrease their risk and may  help to better balance the action on the games.
  
  You obviously can't make your betting decisions based entirely on public teams.  By being aware of which teams are likely to be over-appreciated, though, then  you may be able to spot opportunities that work to your advantage - especially  when you like the public team's opponent in a game. The public can be fickle,  so public teams often change from year to year as players move and teams rise  and fall. Here's a look at five teams that are likely to be disproportionately  backed in the NFL this year:
  
  New England Patriots - This one is obviously a given. No team has been  more successful this decade, and no team gets talked about more. The attention  will be especially fierce this year because of the return of Tom Brady -  probably the most popular athlete in the league both on and off the field. The  Pats are likely to be the class of their division yet again, but there are  enough questions that the public's affections could be at least somewhat  misplaced. They have a new offensive coordinator, a quarterback with a  questionable knee, a scary situation backing him up, an aging lineup on both  sides of the field, and some long time leadership missing from the dressing  room. If any of those factors prove to be a problem then the public's attention  may start to  create real value on the team's opponents.
  
  Philadelphia Eagles - This team will get a double dose of public love  this year. First of all, they are a very popular pick to win the NFC this year,  and seem to be quite widely viewed as the class of the conference. Combine  those expectations with a team that is traditionally reliable and successful,  and which has a marquee quarterback, a good running game, and a well-respected  veteran coach and you have a recipe for public love. That's nothing compared to  what will happen after six weeks of the season, though. That is, of course,  when Michael Vick is officially eligible for play in the regular season. It's  doubtful that he'll see a significant amount of playing time, or that he'll  have a dramatic impact on the fate of the team, but combine the public's  obsession with Vick and his fall from grace with the new national obsession  with the wildcat offense and you can be sure that the Eagles will draw an undue  amount of attention.
  
  Minnesota Vikings - Two words - Brett Favre. For obviously different  reasons people are as obsessed with Favre as they are with Vick. The Vikings  were a fairly highly-regarded team coming into the season, and they will be especially so  this year. Favre will be very popular with bettors, and so will Adrian  Peterson, who is pretty much universally viewed as the best running back in the  league. Add to that a defense that is good - and particularly good against the  run - and you have a team that the public is going to be paying a lot of  attention to. Perhaps too much. It also won't hurt that Favre has progressed  well in the preseason - he went from looking totally out of place in his first  preseason appearance to looking like his old self in Game 2.
  
  Pittsburgh Steelers - The Steelers are the defending Super Bowl champs,  and they have made quite a habit of being successful in recent years. They have  a well-liked quarterback (despite his recent legal woes), a young coach who has  quickly proven that he is for real, and good, charismatic skill players on both  sides of the ball. They were heavily favored in the Super Bowl last year in  part because they were up against an opponent that got little respect, but it's  quite likely that they would have been favored against almost anyone because of  the public's attachment to them. They are one of those teams that is good now  but also has a long history of excellence. Teams like that are hard for the  public to ignore - Dallas is also always a public team despite their stunning  underachievement in recent years.
  
  Indianapolis Colts - Peyton Manning is the ultimate model of steadiness  and consistency, and he has been for years now. No one else in the league has a  reputation as squeaky clean as Manning's, and few players are as consistently  excellent. It doesn't hurt, of course, that Manning and the Colts make a real  habit of winning. They aren't the best team in the league against the spread,  but they aren't the worst, either. The public has been given no reason not to  back the Colts for years, so they keep doing it. There are reasons here why the  Colts' opponents could be made attractive by the public's Indy infatuation.  Manning has to deal with a new head coach and a new offensive coordinator after  years of stability. His running game lacks depth, and he'll need name tags to  figure out who his receivers are. I'm certainly not saying that Colts will  stumble, but if they show signs of starting to then there could be an  opportunity.
  
Most Recent NFL Handicapping
- 2025 NFL Coach of the Year Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
- NFL Betting Predictions: Week 9 Opening Line Report and Picks
- 2026 Super Bowl Predictions with Futures Odds
- Best NFL Teaser Bets Week 8: Basic Strategy Teasers
- NFL Betting Predictions: Week 8 Opening Line Report and Picks
- Best NFL Teaser Bets Week 7: Basic Strategy Teasers
- Best Bets for Teams to Make the NFL Playoffs: Yes or No Props
- 5 NFL Superstars Who Completely Disappeared After Their Prime
- NFL Betting Predictions: Week 7 Opening Line Report and Picks
- Best NFL Teaser Bets Week 6: Basic Strategy Teasers
