2011 New England Patriots Predictions and Futures Betting Odds
by Darin Zank - 8/18/2011
The New England Patriots haven't won a Super Bowl in a while, but they're still one of the NFL's elite teams. Last year New England rolled to the best record in the league at 14-2, and then got upset by the Jets in a home playoff game. In fact, come to think of it, the Patriots haven't won a playoff game since 2007, and they haven't won a Super Bowl since the Spygate case hit.
New England went off last year as one of the top three favorites to win the Super Bowl. But the Patriots looked vulnerable in a Week 2 loss at the Jets in which they got outscored 18-0 after halftime. After that, though, they lost just once the rest of the season, that upset at Cleveland. And over the course of their last five games the Pats outscored foes by a 184-47 margin. New England then entered the postseason as a solid favorite to go all the way. But during that Divisional-Round game in Foxboro the Patriots could not stop the Jets from putting points on the board late, and lost, 28-21. It was another incredibly disappointing end to an otherwise great season.
Overall the Pats ranked just 19th in the league last year in total yardage, which is more characteristic of an 8-8 team rather than one that won 14 games.
And New England went 10-5-1 ATS last year, which is hard to do for a team that's considered one of the biggest public teams in the NFL.
2011 Patriots Offense
What can we say about this unit that hasn't already been said? Piloted by Tom Brady, the Patriots, at times, move the ball almost at will, through the dink-and-dunk, or with deep ins and outs, or going over the top. With Brady putting up some more ridiculous numbers last year, such as a 36/4 TD/INT ratio, New England averaged a league-high 32 PPG. And with RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis topping 1,000 yards on the ground the Patriots ranked ninth in rushing at 123 YPG. Add WR Chad Ochocinco to this mix and you've got a very dangerous concoction.
Defense
The Patriots defense ranked only 25th overall last year, allowing 367 YPG, but some of that had to do with opponents trying to catch up while behind. New England held four of its last five opponents last year to seven points or less. And they ranked 11th vs. the run, allowing 108 YPG. Coach Belichick knows very well how to put the right players in the right places, and the Pats think they've made a few upgrades on this side of the ball. Don't be surprised if New England is better on defense this year than last.
2011 Patriots Pick-ups and Losses
New England made some noise this offseason when they traded for DT Albert Haynesworth and Ochocinco, and signed former Jets DE Shaun Ellis. But as of this writing it's uncertain how big an impact these three will make this year. The Pats also parted ways with a bunch of veterans, but nobody they'll miss too much.
2011 New England Patriots Schedule
The Patriots play six games this year vs. teams that made the playoffs last year, two games with the Dolphins, home dates with San Diego, Dallas and the Giants and a game at Oakland. Overall New England's schedule is ranked tied for 15th-toughest, based on last year's win/loss records.
2011 New England Patriots Predictions and Futures Betting Odds
Bodog is listing New England at -155 to win the AFC East again this year, 3/1 to win the AFC and 13/2 to win the Super Bowl, with a regular-season wins ‘over/under’ of 11.5. And while those futures odds aren't that temping, it's hard to believe, after going 14-2 last year, the Patriots won't win at least 12 games this year. So we'll take the ‘over’ 11.5 on New England for my NFL season win total prediction.
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