New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts Predictions and NFL Betting Odds
by Robert Ferringo - 1/6/2011
Time to put up or shut up.
At the outset of this NFL season the New York Jets, and an obliging media, crowned Gang Green as one of the prohibitive Super Bowl favorites. The early result has been a backed-into Wild Card slot and an opening round shot at the defending conference champions.
New York heads to Indianapolis for a Wild Card Playoff game at 8 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 8. This game is a rematch of last year’s AFC title game, which the host Colts won, 30-17, on the strength of a 17-0 run in the second half.
New York has talked a big game this season and, to a certain extent, backed it up with an 11-5 record with a very challenging schedule. However, they are on the road and are the underdog in this game despite winning more games.
But despite the trip to the Heartland, the Jets won’t be intimidated. They are an exceptional 6-2 straight up and 5-3 against the spread this season away from home.
That the Colts won 10 games this regular season is yet another testament to the greatness of Peyton Manning. He has nearly single-handedly guided an Indianapolis team that has been decimated by injury this year. But they have overcome any deficiencies to make a ninth straight postseason trip.
On the other side is much-maligned Mark Sanchez. The Jets quarterback has been battling an injured shoulder and has been as streaky as any signal caller in the NFL this season. He is completing just 54.8 percent of his passes this year and has a feeble 75.2 passer rating. His play, as always, will be the key to New York’s performance.
However, Sanchez’s performance is a mere subplot in this clash and the main matchup is Manning against Rex Ryan and the Jets defense. New York has the No. 3 total defense and No. 6 passing defense in the league. However, they have been torched for 38 points (at Chicago) and 45 points (at New England) in the last month of the season against the two best offenses that they have faced.
NFL Odds: New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are a soft home favorite by virtue of being the home team. They are -2.5, according to NFL point spreads, after an open of -3.0. The total is presently at 44.5 after opening by 45.0.
NFL Wild Card Playoff Betting Trends: New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts
Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Colts are 18-7-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Colts are 35-16-3 ATS in their last 54 games following a S.U. win.
Colts are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Jets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in January.
Jets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC.
Jets are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games.
Jets are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog.
Jets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on turf.
NFL Predictions: New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts
I will have a prediction on either the side or the total in this game. I’m not going to tell you which I am going to rate, so I can give you picks on both. First, I like the ‘under’ in this game. The Jets were one of the best ‘over’ bets in the league this year thanks to a much improved passing game and a weaker defensive effort. But I think that this line is inflated as a reaction to the regular season results. The Jets are going to tighten up on both offense and defense, getting more conservative on one and more aggressive on the other. The Colts, on the other hand, will turn up the heat on their Cover-2. They will let the Jets move the ball between the 20s but I don’t know if the Jets have the overall skill to execute in the red zone in these clutch situations.
As for the side, I have to lean on the Colts here. It’s just too tough to wager against Manning at home in a prime time situation. Also, for all that has been made of the Colts injury woes I think that they are as healthy now as they have been all season long. They have won four straight games, and if you look at their losses in the past two months you’ll see that they have (mainly) come in close games against top-level competition. Take the Colts and the ‘under’ in this one.
Robert Ferringo is a writer and a professional sports handicapper for Doc’s Sports. You can sign up for his college football and NFL picks and get more information here.
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