NFL Picks: Free Props Predictions for Conference Championship Games
by Trevor Whenham - 1/20/2011
We did pretty well looking at prop bets last weekend, so it only makes sense to do it again. The bad news is that there are obviously two fewer games to choose from this weekend. Luckily, though, they make up for it by providing more options for each game. Here are the five NFL picks for props that stick out most to me from this weekend along with some free predictions:
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers
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(All props for this game come from BetUS)
Will either team score three unanswered times? - Basically this prop is asking whether the game -- or at least a big part of it -- is going to get out of hand. As much as I am not fond of the Jets I am willing to bet that it won’t -- especially at this price. Both of these defenses are strong and playing with confidence, and both offenses are in solid form. The ‘No’ side pays +125, so the decision seems clear.
First to score - I can make an argument that either team can score first, and I don’t have a strong sense that one team or the other has a particular advantage here. That makes it pretty close to a coin flip. The Jets pay +105, so they are reasonably attractive.
First score of the game - Both teams have strong defenses that are going to be determined to make a statement early on. Yards will be hard to come by. The defenses will have the edge early until the offenses can get a feel of what they are up against, and what adjustments they need to make. It’s certainly not hard to believe that a team will have to settle for a field goal early on. You can bet on the first score being anything but a TD at a potential payoff of +110. Sounds like a good deal to me.
Highest scoring quarter - This bet is obviously a bit of a gamble. The first and third quarters pay off at considerably more than the second or the fourth. You can make a compelling argument in favor of the third quarter -- offenses will have had a chance to regroup and adjust to the defenses, and they will have caught their breath a bit. The third pays off at a fat +375, so I’m more than willing to take the gamble.
Longest TD – ‘over/under’ 38.5 yards - Last week I had the ‘under’ in the Baltimore-Pittsburgh at this same total and it paid off, so I’m happy to try it again here. Both defenses will be tough, so it seems reasonable that the offenses won’t break a long one like this.
Green Bay at Chicago
(All props for this game come from Bodog)
James Starks total rushing yards – ‘over/under’ 55.5 - As I said last week, I am very high on Starks. I saw him play in person in college and was stunned by what he could do. He is one of those guys who just needed his opportunity. Green Bay will give him the chance to run again here because they don’t have a lot of choices. The ‘over’ is the underdog at -105, so it is definitely worth a shot in my eyes.
Who will record more sacks - Clay Matthews or Julius Peppers - My thought process is clear here -- Peppers is at +185, and that’s a big price, so I’ll take it. Matthews has been more successful this year, but Peppers has played well, too. The Bears know that they have to make Aaron Rodgers uncomfortable all day if they want to have a chance. That means that they will be sending pressure from every angle, and Peppers will be at the heart of it all.
First score of the game - The logic here is the same as the last game -- the defenses will be solid and fired up, and the offenses both have a tendency to be tentative early on until they find their comfort zone. Settling for a field goal certainly seems like a possibility, and since it pays off at +125 it’s an attractive one.
Team to score first - Like the last game I can’t make a compelling argument one way or the other here, but since the Bears pay off at +110 they are attractive.
Jay Cutler passing yards - Over/under 225.5 - I am very bearish on Jay Cutler this game, and since the ‘under’ pays -105 I’ll definitely take it. He passed for fewer than 225 yards eight times in 16 games this regular season including the last four. He’s facing a pass defense that is very good -- the Packers are No. 1 in passer rating against and high up in many other stats -- and Cutler is not a guy that rises up to his best against the strongest competition.
Indian Cowboy has notched back-to-back winning weeks for his football picks and he will be back with another hot card of NFL handicapping for Championship Weekend. He is on a 34-19 overall football run and has helped his clients make more than $7,500 during that stretch. Click Here to get his picks for the weekend.
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