NFL Totals Betting: Divisional-Round Weekend Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 1/11/2012
The offense got the best of it in last weekend’s Wild Card Round of the NFL playoff bracket as three of the four games went ‘over’ the total. The average number of points scored by the four winning teams was 32.3.
The NFL playoffs now move onto the Divisional Round, which offers another great opportunity to mine some value out of the total lines. The following are the top two ‘over/under’ plays for this weekend’s matchups with the lines provided by BetOnline.
Saturday, January 14
New Orleans Saints vs. San Francisco 49ers
Drew Brees and the Saints offense put up 45 points in last Saturday’s romp over Detroit in the Wild Card Round. It was the fourth game in a row that they scored more than 40 points and the sixth time in the last seven games that they scored more than 30 points. New Orleans finished the regular season ranked second in the NFL with an average of 34.2 points a game.
This season San Francisco has ridden the coattails of a defense that has held its opponents to an average of just 14.3 points a game, but it also has an offense that averaged 23.8 points a game and scored a combined 73 points in its final three games.
The total line for this game opened at 47 points and has held steady ever since. Weather will not be a factor for Saturday’s game so there should be no problems with the grass field at Candlestick Park. The total has gone over in the Saints last five playoff games as favorites and in seven of their last nine playoff games overall. The total has also gone over in 11 of the 49ers last 16 games against the NFC.
Game Prediction: OVER
Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots
Tim Tebow and the Denver offense added a new twist in last Sunday’s shocking upset of Pittsburgh; a vertical passing game that moved the ball down field with huge chunks of yardage. This should be an integral part of this week’s game plan as well considering that the Patriot’s defense is ranked 31st in the NFL against the pass.
New England’s approach to this game will be pretty much the same as when the teams met in Week 15; put so many points on the board that there will be no way that the Broncos will be able to close the gap. The Patriots put up 41 points in that game and actually used this approach with almost every team they faced by scoring an average of 32.1 points a game.
The total line opened at 51.5 points and has slid in the right direction to 50.5. It will be cold in Foxborough on Saturday night but dry, so weather will not be a factor for either of these teams. The total has gone over in seven of the Broncos last 10 games as underdogs and in 23 of the Patriots last 30 games as favorites. It went well over the 47.5-point line the first time they met with both teams combining for 64 points.
Game Prediction: OVER
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