Week 12 NFL Teasers Advice: Best Four for Basic Strategy Teases
by George J Monroy - 11/20/2012
Welcome back to another week of basic strategy teaser analysis here at Doc’s Sports. Its Thanksgiving week, so while you are running around preparing for food and football, remember that there will be many opportunities to bet on a fantastic line over the next few days. This weekend there are five basic strategy teaser games on the schedule, so if you are looking for a solid wager to bet on, these teasers are 47-7 on the season and bring in a little more than a 50 cent profit on every dollar bet. Here are the best four basic strategy teaser games to bet on this weekend.
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--Green Bay Packers at New York Giants
Original spread: Packers +2.5 (5Dimes)
Six-point teaser: Packers +8.5
This matchup between the Green Bay Packers and the New York Giants may be the most important game of Week 12. Both teams are locked in tight divisional races and need a win in order to stay atop their respective divisions. The Giants are in the middle of a two-game losing streak, and, quite frankly, have not played a good game since their Week 6 domination of the San Francisco 49ers. The Giants have also struggled to cover the spread when playing at home and have a 1-4 home ATS record.
The Packers, on the other hand, have gone on quite a hot streak after starting the season 2-3 and are currently on a five-game winning streak. The Packers have also outscored their opponents by 55 points over those five games for an average margin of victory of 11 points. This matchup feels like a high-scoring shootout in the making. While both teams need a victory, the Packers will have the extra motivation of exacting revenge against the Giants for last season’s playoff loss. Getting the Packers plus 8.5 points should be more than enough to cover the spread.
--Oakland Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals
Original spread: Bengals -8 (BookMaker)
Six-point teaser: Bengals -2
The Bengals are 5-5 and one game out of the final AFC wild card spot. This is a matchup that they should be completely motivated for. Cincinnati is riding a two-game winning streak and has played solid football over the last four weeks and stayed competitive in their last two losses against the Denver Broncos and Pittsburgh Steelers. The team is probably still feeling a confidence boost after upsetting the New York Giants a few weeks ago.
The Oakland Raiders, on the other hand, are well, the Oakland Raiders. The team has lost three games in a row by an average margin of 22 points, and the last team they beat was the Kansas City Chiefs. This is a game that could really catapult the Bengals back into serious playoff contention, especially if the Steers are going to be without their quarterback for an extended period of time. Cincinnati will be motivated for this game and will probably cover to original spread, so teasing them down to a two-point favorite is an excellent spot to be in.
--St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals
Original spread: Rams +2.5 (BookMakers)
Six-point teaser: Rams +8.5
Both these teams have been in a complete free fall and have a combined 0-10-1 record over their last 11 games. I could throw a bunch of stats at you, but it feels like they would be irrelevant, especially because both teams have been playing so poorly. What I will tell you is that the Cardinals are 0-3 as an ATS favorite, while the Rams are 6-3 as the ATS underdog. I wouldn’t be surprised to see either of those teams just get blown out, but getting the Rams and 8.5 points feels like an excellent play here.
Basic strategy teasers have been winning at an 87 percent rate, so the numbers alone back up a wager on the Rams. And, besides, are the Arizona Cardinals really in a position to beat anyone, other than the Kansas Chiefs, by more than 8.5 points?
--Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins
Original spread: Dolphins +2.5 (5Dimes)
Six-point teaser: Dolphins +8.5
The Seattle Seahawks are currently in a three-way tie with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Minnesota Viking for the final playoff spot in the NFC. If the Seahawks want to keep their postseason hopes alive, they cannot give away any easily games—and their matchup against the Dolphins qualifies as an easy game. But the question is will they cover the spread?
Miami is 3-0 as a basic strategy teaser underdog and have managed to keep games close all season. Four of their six losses have come by five points or fewer. Miami is at home and should, at the very least, manage to keep the game close. Expect Seattle to win a tight game but not come close to covering the 8.5 points.
This week’s basic strategy teaser games are all solid wagers on paper. If I had to pick one teaser to lose, I would go with Miami. But the Dolphins are playing at home and getting 8.5 points, so even the weakest teaser of the bunch is still showing excellent value with a home underdog. The teasers have been winning at an excellent rate, so all you have to do is kick up your feet and let the math do the work. Happy Thanksgiving, and may the spread be with you.
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