NFC East Weekly NFL Betting Picks: Week 11
by Dave Schwab - 11/13/2013
Philadelphia’s 27-13 victory over Green Bay coupled with the Cowboys’ meltdown against New Orleans last Sunday has both teams tied atop the NFC East at 5-5, with New York and Washington a game and a half back in the standings at 3-6. I predicted that this title race would go down to the final week of the season, with all four teams in the mix, and so far I have been right on the money just like I have been with my NFC East ‘Pick of the Week’. Last Sunday I jumped all over the Eagles against a toothless Packers’ offense for three units to raise my year-to-date record to 8-2 and my total earnings to $1,930 on a $100/unit wager.
Each week of the season I will briefly preview all the games in the NFC East and highlight my top ‘pick of the week’ with the use of Doc’s Sports Unit Betting System. I will be tracking the results as the season progresses with the goal of ending up with at least a $1,000 profit with my picks by the end of the year. All lines quoted have been provided by 5Dimes.
Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants (Sunday, Nov. 17, 4:25 p.m.)
Green Bay will head into its second game without Aaron Rodgers at the helm, and it has to hope for a better result this time around after its offense only managed to score 13 points against Philadelphia. Backup quarterback Seneca Wallace went down early in that game, so it looks like Scott Tolzien will get the start against New York. It could also turn to former Packer Matt Flynn as its starter after resigning him earlier this week. No matter who is behind center in this game, the Packers are going to have to do a much better job running the ball and playing defense to avoid a third straight loss.
The Giants have finally started to turn things around after a disastrous 0-6 start with consecutive wins over Minnesota, Philadelphia and Oakland, both straight up and against the spread. One of the main reasons for the turnaround is a dramatic reduction in turnovers. Through its six-game skid, New York had a ratio of -16 turnovers, but in its last three games it has been +3. Eli Manning has done a much better job at protecting the ball, and the Giants’ defense has been able to tighten things up. This unit allowed an average of 34.8 points a game in six losses, and it has given up a combined total of just 34 points in its three wins.
The opening line had New York favored by six points at home, but that has jumped to seven points on 5Dimes most recent board. The total for this game is set at 42.5.
NFC East ‘Pick of the Week’
Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday, Nov. 17, 1 p.m.)
Washington blew a golden opportunity to gain some ground in the division with a disappointing 34-27 loss to Minnesota last Sunday in a game it led 24-14 at the half. After failing to cover as a one-point road favorite, it is now 3-6 against the spread this year. On paper, the Redskins’ offense looks solid across the board with a passing game that is ranked ninth in the NFL and a ground game that is ranked third. It has all added up to 25.6 points a game, which is ranked ninth in the league. The main reason why this team has lost twice as many games as it has won is a defense that is 27th in the NFL in yards allowed (388.6) and is giving up an average of 31.9 points a game.
The Eagles have started to gain some traction over the past two weeks with Nick Foles as their starting quarterback. After a record-tying seven touchdown throws against Oakland two weeks ago, he threw for three more in last Sunday’s win over the Packers. After suffering a two-game power failure against the Cowboys and the Giants, Philadelphia has scored 76 points in those two wins. Even more impressive is the elevated play on defense. This unit was torched for an average of 37 points in its first four games, but ever since then it has not allowed more than 21 points in any of its last six games.
Philadelphia drew first blood in this season’s series with an opening-weekend 33-27 victory as a four-point road underdog. It is now 4-2 both SU and ATS in the last six meetings. The real concern for the Eagles this Sunday is playing this game at home where they have lost their last 10 games. Streaks like that cannot last forever, and given the current form of both of these teams, bank on it coming to an end this week.
3-Unit Play Take Philadelphia (-3) over Washington
YTD Record 8-2 (+$1,930)
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Read more articles by Dave Schwab
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