NFL Futures Betting: Possible 2014 Super Bowl Matchups
by George Monroy - 7/30/2013
The NFL season is set to begin in a few short weeks. And while most bettors are focusing their attention on Week 1 and the multitude of storylines that are swarming around the beginning of the season, now might be a good time to start thinking about the Super Bowl. Yes, I know the season has not even begun yet and this year’s Tebowmania is still in its infancy stages, but wagering on possible 2014 Super Bowl matchups now can provide the best amount of value we will see all season.
NFL futures odds are always at their highest before the season begins, and the lines could dramatically lose value even a couple of weeks into the year. The lines for this season’s 10 most likely Super Bowl matchups are currently getting anywhere from +1500 to +4000 odds. There is a lot of value to be had in picking the correct matchup. Let’s take a look at the 15 most likely 2014 Super Bowl matchups according to the lines from Sportsbook.ag.
Top 15 Mostly Likely Super Bowl Matchups
15) Falcons vs. Patriots: +5500
14) Saints vs. Patriots: +5500
13) Redskins vs. Broncos: +5000
12) Packers vs. Texans: +5000
11) Giants vs. Broncos: +4000
10) Seahawks vs. Texans: +4000
9) Falcons vs. Broncos: +3500
8) 49ers vs. Texans: +3500
7) Saints vs. Broncos: +3500
6) Packers vs. Patriots: +3500
5) 49ers vs. Patriots: +2500
4) Seahawks vs. Patriots: +2500
3) Packers vs. Broncos: +2000
2) Seahawks vs. Broncos: +1900
1) 49ers vs. Broncos: +1500
At first glance the odds seem exactly like what most people would expect. The list is comprised of the best teams in the league, and it’s not shocking to see that oddsmakers expect the San Francisco 49ers, New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks and Houston Texas to be Super Bowl contenders. However, once you take a closer look, you will realize that the Broncos are in seven of the Top-15 matchups, while the Patriots and 49ers are only in five and three matchups, respectively. The Broncos will no doubt be very good next season, but it seems like the oddsmakers are severely overvaluing the team.
Peyton Manning is a fantastic quarterback, yet year after year he leads a great regular-season team into the playoffs only to get eliminated far too early. This may not be a popular opinion, but Manning cannot be trusted in the playoffs, and his team should not a Super Bowl favorite. The former Indianapolis Colts quarterback has not done anything to prove that he can lead his team to a Super Bowl win.
The most exciting odds on this list come from matchups that include the Seahawks, 49ers, Texans and Patriots. Here is a quick look at the matchups that I believe to have the most value heading into the season.
Saints vs. Patriots: +5500
Redskins vs. Broncos: +5000
Packers vs. Texans: +5000
Seahawks vs. Texans: +4000
49ers vs. Texans: +3500
49ers vs. Patriots: +2500
Seahawks vs. Patriots: +2500
The Texans, Seahawks and 49ers are three of the best teams in the league. And unlike many of the other Super Bowl contenders, are very good on both sides of the ball. NFL futures are a tricky proposition to navigate because injuries and unforeseen circumstances can change everything in an instant, however, there is a large amount of value to be had wagering on them. Remember to bet wisely, and may the spread be with you.
Read more articles by George Monroy
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