NFL Totals Betting: Week 10 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 11/6/2013
Scoring remained on an uptick in Week 9 of the NFL season, with nine of the 13 games going “over” the total. This was actually the fourth week in a row that the over play had an advantage. I went straight across the board on my top three picks with a record of 1-1-1. My year-to-date winning percentage on the total line now stands at 63 percent.
Each and every week of the NFL regular season, I will be digging deep into the stats and betting trends for all the matchups on Sunday’s slate in an effort uncover a few golden opportunities to cash in on the total line. The following are my top three picks for Week 10 based on lines by 5Dimes.
Sunday, Nov. 10
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans (1 p.m. CBS)
Total Line: 41
Jacksonville remains one of two teams still looking for its first victory of the year. It went into last week’s bye with an offense that is ranked last in the NFL in total yards (286.5) and scoring (10.8 points). This effort complements a defense that 27th in yards allowed (392.2) and last in points allowed (33.0). This easily earns the Jaguars the title of “worst team in the league”.
The Titans are still in shouting distance of Indianapolis in the AFC South title race at 4-4, but they have had their issues putting points on the board as well with an average of 21.6 a game. They continue to rely heavily on a defense that is ranked seventh in the league against the pass and giving up just 20.9 points a game.
The total for this division tilt opened at 41, and it has held steady all week long. The total has stayed “under” in 10 of Jacksonville’s last 13 games against the AFC South, and it has stayed under in five of its last seven games against the Titans. With two weeks to prepare for this contest, look for a better effort from the Jaguars’ defense that will be enough to keep the combined score less than 41 points.
Game Pick: UNDER
Carolina Panthers vs. San Francisco 49ers (4:05 p.m. FOX)
Total Line: 42.5
Do not look now, but Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers are quickly moving up the ranks with a four-game winning streak in which they have scored 30 or more points in all four outings. Carolina has 19 takeaways on year and a turnover ratio of plus eight with Newton doing a much better job of taking care of the ball.
The 49ers rode a five-game winning streak into last week’s bye. They are now ranked fifth in the league in scoring with 27.2 points a game after putting up at least 31 points in all five of these wins. Colin Kaepernick has been able to shake off a slow start to throw for 1,584 yards and eight touchdowns, but the driving force behind this offense is a ground game that is churning out 153 yards a game.
The total for this showdown has been opened at 41.5, and it has climbed to 42.5 with some early money on the over. I still see this number as being too low for a matchup that could easily turn into a shootout between two very hot offenses. Recent trends support this view, with the total going over in four of Carolina’s last five road games and in eight of the 49ers last 10 games at home.
Game Pick: OVER
Dallas Cowboys vs. New Orleans Saints (8:30 p.m. NBC)
Total Line: 53.5
Dallas comes into this matchup with an offense that is ranked fourth in the NFL in scoring with an average of 28.6 points a game, but with the exception of the 30 points it scored against the Lions in a Week 8 loss, this unit has averaged only 18 points in three previous road games. Ironically enough, the Cowboys’ defense played pretty well in those games by holding teams to an average of 16.7 points.
As long as Drew Brees is under center, the Saints will always been known as a prolific passing team that can put a ton of points on the board. However, you have to give quite a bit of credit to their defense for the 6-2 start. This unit is ranked fifth in the NFL against the pass and fifth in points allowed in giving up an average of 18.2 points a game.
The total line for this game opened at 52.5, and it has risen to 53.5 in anticipation of a high-scoring affair. I see things going the other way between these two teams on Sunday night. The total has stayed under in 11 of the Cowboys last 15 road games, and it has also stayed under in the Saints’ last four games against the NFC. This should be a three-point game either way, but the final score will not add up to more than 53 points.
Game Pick: UNDER
YTD Record: 17-9-1
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