NFL Totals Betting: Week 5 Over and Under Predictions
by David Schwab - 10/2/2013
The total line results slightly favored the “over” in Week 4 after nine of 16 games stayed “under” the week before, but the overall year-to-date results on this line are basically even through the first four weeks of the NFL season. I quickly returned to my winning ways with a perfect 3-0 record in last week’s picks to take my overall record to 9-3 on the year.
Each and every week of the NFL regular season, I will be digging deep into the numbers for all the matchups in an effort uncover a few golden opportunities to cash-in on the total line. The following are my top three picks for Week 5 based on lines by 5Dimes.
Sunday, Oct. 6
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. St. Louis Rams (1 p.m. CBS)
Total Line: 41.5
There always has to be a worst team in the NFL, but Jacksonville has made it an art form in its first four games. The Jaguars have been outscored 129-31 with 17 of their points coming in a 28-point loss to Seattle. They handed the reins over to Blaine Gabbert in last week’s 37-3 loss to Indianapolis so it does not really matter who is behind center on this team.
The Rams have lost three straight after opening the season with a 27-24 win over Arizona. During this skid the offense has scored an average of just 14 points a game. While this week’s opponent is tailor made for a win, it does not necessarily mean that this offense is suddenly going to start putting up a ton of points. It is ranked 30th in the NFL in total yards and dead-last running the ball with an average of just 47.2 yards a game.
The total line for this contest opened at 41.5 and has held steady ever since. As bad as Jacksonville has been on defense this season, it is hard seeing either of these teams scoring more than 20 points in the game. The Jaguars’ past trends tend to back this up with the total staying under in six of their last eight games. The total has also stayed under in eight of the Rams last 11 games in October.
Game Pick: UNDER
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants (1 p.m. FOX)
Total Line: 53.5
The Eagles’ new-look offense under Chip Kelly took flight in the first two weeks of the season with 63 total points, but since then it has been grounded with just 36 points in its last two outings. Philadelphia’s defense has been as porous as they come, but two of their games have been against San Diego and Denver, which accounted for 85 of the 138 points allowed.
New York has been gift-wrapping victories for its opponents with a turnover ratio of minus-nine, which is ranked last in the league. Eli Manning has been picked-off nine times and sacked 14 times and the Giants’ running game is averaging just 57.8 yards a game. To make matters worse, the defense has allowed the most points in the league while the offense is ranked 30th in scoring with just 15.2 points a game. The best news for this team is that Philly is coming to town this week.
The total for this NFC East clash opened at 55 and it has been pushed down to 53.5 on 5Dimes latest board. I normally do not follow the betting public in line movements, but the past trends in this rivalry are just too strong to ignore. The total has stayed under in 19 of the Giants last 27 games overall and in this matchup the total has stayed under in 11 of the last 16 meetings in New York. Ineptitude could easily keep both of these teams out of the end zone all day long.
Game Pick: UNDER
Carolina Panthers vs. Arizona Cardinals (4:05 p.m. FOX)
Total Line: 42.5
Carolina has been a tough team to figure out this season at 1-2. The talent is there to win games, but a losing mentality tends to hinder its ability to play to its potential. The Panthers are coming off an early bye after hammering the Giants 38-0 in Week 3, so there should be some positive momentum heading into this Sunday’s game.
The Cardinals have played to form so far with a 2-2 start in which they beat Detroit and Tampa Bay while losing to St. Louis and New Orleans. The big takeaway from these four games is an improved offense under the guidance of veteran signal caller Carson Palmer. He has already thrown for 1,010 yards in his first four games with 21 of his 87 completions going to Larry Fitzgerald for 245 yards and three of his four touchdown throws.
The total opened at 42 and jumped slightly to 42.5, but I see that number still being way too low for this matchup. The total has gone over in three of the Panthers last four road games and it has gone over in four of the Cardinals last six home games against a team with a losing record on the road. Both these teams should be able to move the ball against one another and over the course of four quarters the points will start to add up.
Game Pick: OVER
YTD Record: 9-3
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