NFL Totals Betting: Week 6 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 10/9/2013
The total line results were split right across the board last week, with seven games going “over” and seven staying “under”. Unfortunately, I was on the wrong side of all three of my picks last week; putting a huge dent in a 75-percent winning percentage over the first four weeks of the NFL season.
Each and every week of the NFL regular season, I will be digging deep into the numbers for all the matchups in an effort uncover a few golden opportunities to cash in on the total line. The following are my top three picks for Week 6 based on lines by 5Dimes.
Sunday, Oct. 13
Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs (1 p.m. CBS)
Total Line: 40.5
The Raiders stunned San Diego 27-17 late last Sunday night to raise their mark to 2-3 on the year. While they have to be encouraged by that key division win, they are climbing up the ranks in the AFC West this Sunday with an offense that is still ranked 22nd in the NFL in total yards and 23rd in scoring with 19.6 points a game.
The surprising Chiefs have opened the season 5-0 behind a solid performance by Alex Smith at quarterback and a running game that is averaging 120.6 yards a game. The real strength of this team has been a revitalized defense that is ranked first in the league in points allowed (11.6) and seventh in yards allowed (312.8).
The total for this division clash opened at 41, and it has dropped a half a point to 40.5 on 5Dimes latest board. This is the kind of matchup that has grinder written all over it, especially when you consider that the total has stayed under in 17 of the last 22 meetings overall and in the last five games played in Kansas City.
Game Pick: UNDER
Green Bay Packers vs. Baltimore Ravens (1 p.m. FOX)
Total Line: 48
The Packers lost two of their first three games but came off their bye and hammered Detroit 22-9. While Green Bay’s defense rose to the occasion last week, it suffered a huge blow when its best player, Clay Matthews, went down with a broken thumb. It will now be up to Aaron Rodgers and a Packers’ offense to once again carry the load for this team like it has already done so many times before.
Baltimore continues to find ways to win games at 3-2 on the year despite having an offense that has become very average with 23.4 points a game. The Ravens’ vaunted defense remains suspect against the better teams it has faced. It gave up 49 points to Denver on opening day and struggled at times against Buffalo and Miami the past two weeks.
The total line for this contest opened at 47.5 points and jumped slightly to 48. I still see that number as being too low for two teams that are more than capable of exploiting weaknesses on each other’s defense. The total has gone over in Green Bay’s last four games on the road, and it has gone over in four of Baltimore’s last five games played in October.
Game Pick: OVER
Tennessee Titans vs. Seattle Seahawks (4:05 p.m. CBS)
Total Line: 40.5
The Titans got off to a surprising 3-1 start behind some solid play by Jake Locker at quarterback, but they quickly returned to form in a 26-17 loss to Kansas City last week with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm. Locker will be out of the lineup until early next month with a sprained hip, so it will be up to Fitzpatrick to lead the team against another of the NFL’s most dominant defenses.
Seattle dropped its first game of the year in a 34-28 loss to Indianapolis this past Sunday. It was the first time that this team gave up more than 20 points all season long. Even with those 34 points added into the total, the Seahawks are stilled ranked sixth in the league in points allowed in giving up an average of just 16.2 a game. Playing this game at home will only add some downward pressure on this number.
The total line in this game first opened at 41, and since then it has dropped a bit to 40.5. I am going against the early money in this contest in what should remain a fairly low-scoring game, especially when it comes to the Titans’ final point tally. Recent trends are also in my favor with the total staying under in five of Tennessee’s last seven games following a SU loss.
Game Pick: UNDER
YTD Record: 9-6
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