NFL Totals Betting: Week 8 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 10/23/2013
Scoring in the NFL has been on an uptick recently, with nine of the 15 games on the schedule going “over” the closing line for the second week in a row. I was also able to stay in the black on my top three “over/under” picks for the past two weeks with a record of 4-2.This raised my year-to-date winning percentage to 62 percent.
Each and every week of the NFL regular season, I will be pouring over the numbers for all the matchups in an effort uncover a few golden opportunities to cash in on the total line. The following are my top three picks for Week 8 based on lines by 5Dimes.
Sunday, Oct. 27
Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions (1 p.m. FOX)
Total Line: 51
The Cowboys scored only 17 points last Sunday in a win over Philadelphia, but this is still one of the most potent scoring machines in the league. Tony Romo and Co. are currently ranked third in the NFL in scoring with an average of 28.6 points a game. You cannot help but get the feeling that this unit will get back to its old ways this Sunday against the Lions.
Detroit is another team that knows how to find the end zone with an average of 26.6 points a game. Matthew Stafford has already thrown for 2,129 yards and 15 touchdowns, and the Lions have tallied a total of 98 points in three previous home games. Detroit’s defense has contributed to a few high-scoring games as well. It is ranked 31st in the league in yards allowed (397.1) and 21st in points allowed (23.9).
The total for this game opened at 51 and it has held steady as the week as progressed. Everything points to a high-scoring affair that should easily clear this number. The total has gone over in 21 of the Cowboys last 31 games in October, and it has gone over in Detroit’s last four home games. It has also gone over in the last four meetings between the two teams.
Game Pick: OVER
New York Jets vs. Cincinnati Bengals (4:05 p.m. CBS)
Total Line: 41
New York has gained a reputation for playing shut-down defense since Rex Ryan took over as head coach, but with rookie quarterback Geno Smith firing the ball all over the field, this team is starting to develop a reputation for putting points on the board. With last Sunday’s stunning 30-27 victory over New England and the 30 points they scored against Atlanta in Week 5, the Jets are now averaging close to 20 points a game.
The Bengals have run their record to 5-2 behind a defense that is ranked ninth in the NFL in yards allowed and is giving up an average of just 19.3 points a game. However, this is another team that can put points on the board when it has to. Cincinnati’s 21.1 points a game is ranked 22nd in the league, but it has scored 27 points or more in three of its last five outings.
The total line for this AFC clash opened at 41, and it has remained at that number ever since. This matchup should still be dictated by both team’s defense, but it will not take much to push the final score over this mark. The total has gone over in 21 of the Jets’ last 31 games on the road, and it has gone over in four of the Bengals’ last five games following a straight up win.
Game Pick: OVER
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Oakland Raiders (4:05 p.m. CBS)
Total Line: 40.5
The Steelers are slowly working their way back into the AFC North title race with two straight victories after losing their first four games. This turnaround has been primarily on the back of the defense in a 19-6 win over the Jets to go along with last Sunday’s 19-16 grinder against Baltimore. Overall, Pittsburgh is ranked 28th in the NFL in scoring with an average of 17.8 points a game.
Oakland is another team that has won a few games this season despite its offense. The Raiders are dead last in the league in passing the ball and averaging just 17.5 points a game. The defense has struggled with consistency through its first six games, but it did hold Indianapolis to 21 points and San Diego to 17 points earlier in the year.
The total was initially set at 40.5 for this black-and-blue battle between two old-school AFC teams, and it has held firm ever since. Given these two teams’ past history along with their current form, points should be hard to come by this Sunday afternoon. The recent trends also favor a low-scoring game, with the total staying under in six of the Steelers’ last eight games overall and in Oakland’s last seven games at home.
Game Pick: UNDER
YTD Record: 13-8
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