Top Props of the Week: 2013 NFL Regular Season Passing Leader
by Dave Schwab - 6/17/2013
BetOnline continues to release some of its prop bet odds for the upcoming NFL regular season, so for this week’s Top Props we decided to focus in on the odds to pass for the most yards during the 2013 regular season. The usual suspects have made their way to the top of this list, but there is some tremendous value to found throughout the list if you know where to look.
The NFL quarterback at the top of this list at +250 is last season’s passing yards leader, Drew Brees. Despite all the turmoil in New Orleans in 2012 due to player and coaching suspensions, most notably head coach Sean Payton for the entire year, Brees turned in a performance for the ages throwing the ball. The Saints only won seven games, but the 13-year veteran kept his team competitive by completing 63 percent of his passes for 5,177 yards. This was after he set the NFL single-season record for total passing yards in 2011 with 5,476. There has been some turnover in New Orleans’ receiving corps, but enough weapons remain for Brees to put up these kinds of numbers again.
The next favorite at +350 to win this season’s passing yards title is Detroit’s Matthew Stafford. Heading into his fifth season in the NFL, he has already established himself as one of the top gunslingers in the league with 4,967 passing yards in 2012 after throwing for 5,038 yards in 2011. The key to Stafford winning the passing yards title this season, besides having Calvin Johnson to throw the ball to, is staying healthy for a full 16 games after suffering through an injury-plagued first two seasons in the league. His completion percentage slipped below 60 percent last season, so developing better accuracy will be another factor in his ability to pile up the yards.
The third-favorite to win the 2013 passing yards title is a tie between Peyton Manning and Tom Brady at +400. You have to love Manning’s chances at topping the list in 2013 after returning from an entire year off to throw for 4,659 yards last season in Denver. With an entire offseason to prepare for another run at winning a Super Bowl, you would have to believe that Manning will easily eclipse that number in 2013. This could be especially true if the Broncos’ decision to release veteran running back Willis McGahee and hand the reigns to the rushing attack over to rookie Montee Ball does not pan out.
Tom Brady has started all 16 regular-season games for the past four seasons, and, with the exception of 2010, he has thrown for at least 4,300 yards each year. His best season was in 2011 when he chased Brees all season long with 5,235 passing yards to finish second. Last year’s 4,827 yards was good enough for fourth-place on the list. The main concern heading into this season is the loss of his favorite receiver Wes Welker, who will be catching balls from Manning in Denver this season. There are also health concerns with both of New England’s tight ends, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.
There are a number of quality quarterbacks on the list with longer odds, but the name that jumped off the page at +3000 is San Francisco’s Colin Kaepernick. This guy was carrying a clipboard on the sidelines when the 2012 regular season got underway, but by the end of the year he was the latest and greatest sensation in the NFL. While Jim Harbaugh’s offense is predicated on running the ball first to set up the pass, that could be subject to change if Kaepernick starts lighting things up with is arm right out of the gate. He threw for 200 yards or more in his last three regular season games and passed for a total of 798 yards in three Read more articles by Dave Schwab
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