Top Props of the Week: 2013 NFL Win Totals Three-Way Lines
by Dave Schwab - 9/3/2013
Just about every major sportsbook has released its odds for the “over/under” on each NFL team’s projected win total for the upcoming regular season, but Sportsbook.ag takes these prop bets one step further by offering a third set of odds for a tie. The following is a look at three teams that offer some solid value in their odds for hitting that projected win total right on the nose.
The team at the top of my list is the New York Giants at nine wins. The odds they go over this total are +160, and the odds they stay under are +110. The odds that New York ends the regular season with exactly nine wins is +225, and to me that number looks great. Since Tom Coughlin took over as the team’s head coach in 2004, his teams have won between eight and 10 games in six of those nine seasons. If you only focus on his last six seasons at the helm, this number would be five.
The Giants won nine games in 2011 and won the NFC East title. Last season they went 9-7 and lost the division by a game to Washington. Given the makeup of the East heading into this season there is a better-than-average chance that 9-7 will be good enough to win the division this year, especially since the projected win total for the Cowboys and the Redskins is eight, with Philadelphia’s listed at seven.
Another team that has a good shot at hitting its projected win total on the nose is the Buffalo Bills with a total of six wins. The current odds they go over this total are +120, and the odds they stay under are +170. The odds that they post a 6-10 record this season are +210. One of the reasons that I like this play is that the Bills have been the poster child for mediocrity in the NFL for the past eight seasons. Since going 9-7 in 2004, they have not won more than seven games in any one year. However, they have been able to avoid a freefall by winning at least six games in six of those eight seasons.
The other reason I really like Buffalo to win six games for the third straight season is its schedule. The Bills will play the NFC South and the AFC North as well as Kansas City and Jacksonville. I give them two wins in the division, two against the NFC South and one against the AFC North. Throw in a win over the Jaguars, and you have a grand total of six victories on the year.
The final team on my list that offers the best value to win exactly as many games as it is projected to is the San Diego Chargers. The odds they go over seven wins is +120, and the odds they stay under that total is +160. The odds they come in right at lucky number seven is +230. The Chargers have been on a steady downward progression the past three seasons with a 9-7 record in 2010, an 8-8 mark in 2012 and a 7-9 record last season. They have a new head coach in Mike McCoy, but there has been no significant improvement in the roster that has been leading this slow decent.
Philip Rivers at quarterback gives San Diego a chance to win some games it should not, but his overall skills have eroded over the past few seasons just like his teams. McCoy decided to clean house this past offseason in an effort to bring in some young blood, but those kind of moves do not produce winners overnight. There is still enough talent to scratch out seven wins, but I see this team staying in a holding pattern for at least one more season before it can even think about competing with Denver and possibly even Kansas City in the AFC West.
Read more articles by Dave Schwab
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