Expert NFL Betting Picks: Weekly NFC East Predictions Week 5
by Dave Schwab - 10/1/2014
I was very fortunate to book last week's Eagles game against San Francisco early to lock in a favorable 5.5-point spread. Philadelphia lost 26-21, with most of the sportsbooks' betting odds closing below five points to swing things in favor of the 49ers. That is why it is important to watch line movements and shop for the best odds. This is why I am off to a perfect 4-0 start with my weekly NFC East picks for Doc's Sports.
Every week of this year's NFL regular season I will briefly preview all the games in the NFC Eastusing BetOnline's betting odds as well as release my NFC East "pick of the week" with the use of Doc's Sports Unit Betting System. I will be tracking my results from week to week as the season progresses with the ultimate goal of generating a profit of at least $1,000 with my picks. Since we have already reached that goal, let's go for $2,000!
St. Louis Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday, Oct. 5, 1 p.m.)
The Rams' offense took a major hit when quarterback Sam Bradford was lost for the season. Heading into last week's bye they were 1-2 both straight up and against the spread, but they did put up 31 points in a tight three-point loss to Dallas in Week 3. Overall with second-year quarterback Austin Davis at the helm, St. Louis is averaging 18.7 points per game. Unfortunately, the defense is giving up 28.3 PPG, which is ranked 30th in the league.
The Eagles' high-octane offense suffered a power failure last Sunday against San Francisco with all 21 points coming from the defense and special teams. Nick Foles took a big step backwards against one of the better defenses he has faced so far, and LeSean McCoy continues to struggle in a running game that is now ranked 26th in the NFL with an average of just 87 yards a game.
BetOnline has opened Philadelphia as a 7.5-point home favorite over the Rams, and the total has been set at 47.5.
Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys (Sunday, Oct. 5, 1 p.m.)
Houston eclipsed last year's win total with a 23-17 victory against Buffalo last Sunday as a 2.5-point road favorite. The Texans are now 3-1 both SU and ATS on the year. As expected, Houston's defense, led by J.J. Watt, has been the key to this early success. This unit has allowed an average of just 16.8 PPG despite being ranked 21st in the league in total yards allowed.
Many experts wrote Dallas off after an ugly opening-week loss to San Francisco, but Tony Romo and Co. have quietly strung together three wins both SU and ATS to move into a tie with Philly for first place in the NFC East. While a good deal of credit should go to Romo after turning things around from a disastrous start, the driving force has been running back DeMarco Murray and a ground game that is churning out an average of 165 yards a game. This is tops in the NFL.
The Cowboys head into this Texas-sized showdown as six-point home favorites, with the total set at 46.5.
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins (Monday, Oct. 6, 8:30 p.m.)
Seattle remains the odds-on favorite to repeat as Super Bowl Champions, and it has already won a rematch against Denver earlier in the season. The big question coming off a bye week is if the Seahawks can play dominant football on the road. In their only other road game this season they got pushed around by San Diego in a 30-21 loss as 4.5-point favorites.
Things have gone from bad to worse for the Redskins after last Thursday's embarrassing 45-14 loss to the Giants as three-point home favorites. They are now 1-3 SU (2-2 ATS), and the total has gone "over" in their last three games. Much of the blame for that loss should go to the play of backup quarterback Kirk Cousins, who is filling in for an injured Robert Griffin III, but Washington's defense has now given up a total of 82 points in its last two games.
Seattle comes into this Monday night primetime matchup as an 8.5-point road favorite, with the total set at 45.5.
NFC East 'Pick of the Week'
Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Giants (Sunday, Oct. 5, 1 p.m.)
Will the real Atlanta Falcons please stand up? After plummeting to just four SU wins last season, Atlanta got fans excited early this season with an upset of New Orleans at home on opening weekend. It has also lost to Cincinnati on the road, and last Sunday, as a 5.5-point road favorite, it was hammered by Minnesota 41-28 against a rookie quarterback getting his first NFL start. The one constant through the first four games is a Falcons' defense that is very suspect no matter where the games are played.
The Giants are another early head-scratcher at 2-2 SU and ATS, but they appear to be headed in the right direction with back-to-back victories against Houston and Washington by a combined score of 75-31. Eli Manning has returned to Pro Bowl form at quarterback, and New York's ground game has gotten a boost from Rashad Jennings. He has rushed for 341 yards on 81 carries. When the Giants' offense is clicking it can score points in bunches, and while the Falcons have had some consistency issues on the road they should still be able to score enough points to help take this total over the 50.5 total line.
YTD: 4-0 (+$1300)
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