Free NFL Picks for Sunday: Best Totals on the Board
by CarbonSports - 9/11/2014
Pick #1: Jacksonville/Washington Over 43.5 (-110)
Two 0-1 teams meet in the nation's capital this week and both teams are looking for a much better performance from their offense.
Jacksonville came out strong in their game against Philly, scoring 17 points in the first half and taking a lead into the break. Yet, they didn't score another point the rest of the way and it was really only two deep passes that the Jags had to get 14 of those 17 points. They've got to be much more consistent for the entire 60 minutes if they want to start winning games again, and they've got a chance to do so against a struggling Washington team.
Washington only scored six points against Houston last week as RGIII continues to look timid in the pocket his decision-making process is affected by it. Griffin did complete 29 of 37 attempts last week which is a good sign, but key fumbles halted to drives for Washington and that simply can't happen. They've got too many playmakers like Garcon, Jackson and Alfred Morris to not put up 20+ points a week and after seeing the Eagles torch this Jacksonville defense in the 2nd half last week, I think Washington has tremendous offensive success this week.
Washington is 9-0 O/U at home the last nine times they've played an AFC opponent and this will be the weakest AFC team they've faced of them all. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is 7-0 O/U as dogs of 15 or less against an NFC foe and are on a 7-3 O/U run after losing by 14+ points. The Jags are also 6-2 O/U in their last eight on the road and with no real rivalry 'hatred' between these two teams, I believe they trade TD's all afternoon and finish in the 50's.
Pick #2: New England/Minnesota Over 49
Just like the Jags last week, New England failed to score in the 2nd half of their game with Miami as they watched a halftime lead disappear and turn into an 0-1 SU start. Well, the Patriots are out on the road again this week to play an unfamiliar foe (Minnesota) and you can bet that Brady's offense won't stall against the Vikings like it did vs. Miami.
New England is 6-0 O/U the last six times they've been favorites of 6 or less against an NFC foe and 4-1 O/U when coming off a SU loss. New England is also 17-5 O/U after giving up more than 350 yards in their last outing and that number decreases by one to 16-5 O/U when they've allowed 150+ yards on the ground. Minnesota's got one of the best RB's in the game (Peterson) and given the success Miami's Knowshon Moreno had vs this Pats run defense (24 carries for 134 yards), Peterson could end up having a monster day when all is said and done.
Minnesota's offense surprised many last week as starter Matt Cassel was sharp as the Vikings put up 34 points on the Rams. Minnesota is 5-0 O/U after allowing 10 or less points (they gave up six), and are 4-0 O/U after winning by 14+ points. Their defense will be in for a much tougher test against Brady and the Pats offense compared to Shaun Hill and the Rams, so don't expect them to hold down New England for long. Minnesota is also 8-2 O/U after their last 10 ATS wins and we should see an AFC/NFC shootout here.
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