NFL Betting Something or Nothing: Taking a Look at Week 2 Surprises
by George Monroy - 9/16/2014
As sports bettors and fans, we are accustomed to the media overacting and blowing things out of proportion. If Richard Sherman has a subpar game, suddenly he, along with Seattle's secondary, has been exposed, and if Atlanta outguns New Orleans during Week 1 then suddenly the Falcons are legitimate contenders once again. The season is still in its infancy, and making knee-jerk reactions can be a sure-fire way for bettors to lose money over the coming weeks.
However, staying ahead of the trends-jumping on the positive ones and running away from the negative ones-is essential for bettors during the season. Let's take a closer look at a few of Week 2's surprises and figure out if they are indicative of deeper issues in this edition of NFL betting something or nothing.
Indianapolis' 0-2 Start: Something or Nothing?
Indianapolis took a 17-6 lead into the second half of Monday night's home opener against Philadelphia and proceeded to fall apart late in the game, which opened the door for the Eagles to rally and steal a victory from the Colts. Andrew Luck has been wildly inconsistent throughout the first eight quarters of play, which is also consistent to what he has been as a quarterback during his first three seasons in the NFL.
Houston currently leads the AFC South with a 2-0 record, and while the team is certainly improved this year, it's not a powerhouse by any means. The Colts, on the other hand, will play Jacksonville and Tennessee to close out September and should reach the .500 mark by the end of the month.
Nothing : the Colts can be inconsistent and frustrating for bettors, but the team is still on track to win 10 games and compete for the AFC South division title. If the oddsmakers begin to undervalue Indianapolis, bettors would be wise to jump on those lines.
Seattle and San Francisco's Week 2 Losses: Something or Nothing?
After two impressive performances by the NFC West powerhouses, both Seattle and San Francisco suffered huge upsets during Week 2. Seattle was blown out of the water early during its matchup against San Diego, while San Francisco took a big lead into the second half and self destructed against Chicago.
Much of the analysis around Seattle's performance has included the word "exposed," and while such statements may be over-exaggerated, San Diego did discover a game plan that other teams may use in the future. The Chargers ran a fast-paced, no-huddle offense that kept Seattle's defenders from substituting while continually throwing at Sherman's side of the field.
Something : it may not be panic time for either squad, but it seems like the NFC is finally catching up with both teams. It may be time to fade San Francisco and Seattle, especially against large spreads.
Houston's 2-0 Start: Something or Nothing?
Houston is 2-0 ATS, with two easy covers against Washington and Oakland. The team is in the weird position of being considered a mediocre team by the oddsmakers. The Texans are good enough to be considered favorites against the Redskins and Raiders but not considered good enough to be large favorites. The team has an excellent defense and has been better than expected on offense with Ryan Fitzpatrick starting at quarterback.
Houston may not be in the top tier of NFL teams, but they are clearly better than the bottom half, which are the teams they will be playing this year. The squad has upcoming matchups against the New York Giants, Buffalo Bills and Dallas Cowboys-all winnable matchups for the Texans.
Something : Houston has a weak schedule and the stigma of last year's two-win season still hanging over its heads. Expect the team to continue wining and covering spreads, at least until the rest of the betting public catches on.
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Read more articles by George Monroy
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