Overall, my year-to-date record for Doc's Sports on the "over/under" line stands at an even 19-19-1 as a result of a second straight 2-1 record in last week's top three free picks. The overall results in Week 13 of the NFL season favored the over with a 9-7 mark in the 16 games.

The NFL regular season has reached the quarter pole heading into December, and from here on in the games take on a special meaning for the teams still in the playoff hunt. This is also the time of the year when the teams riding out the string show their true colors as far the effort they put into the games. I have taken everything into consideration when handicapping this Sunday's NFL matchups to come up with three "over/under" picks that look like sure-fire winners to me. All my free total line picks are based on betting odds as provided by BetOnline

Sunday, Dec. 6

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (1 p.m. CBS)

Total Line: 42

Game Overview

Houston sits at 6-6 on the year, and unless it wins out it will most likely miss the playoffs in a very crowded AFC field. Nonetheless, this has been a vast improvement since last season's 2-14 mark. While the Texan's offense exploded for 45 points in last week's win against Tennessee, this kind of number have been the exception and not the rule. What has been consistent is a solid defensive effort that is allowing an average of 20.6 points a game.

The Jaguars doubled their win total on the year with last week's 25-24 victory against the Giants, and it was just the third game this season where they scored more than 17 points. Overall, Jacksonville is ranked currently ranked 31^st in the NFL in scoring with an average of 15.5 points a game. The defense has struggled stopping teams all season long as well, but this unit has stepped things up a bit lately after holding Indianapolis to 23 points the week before.

Game Trends

The total for this AFC South matchup opened at 42 points, and it has held steady throughout the week. Look for Houston to lead with its defense this Sunday while trying to control the game on the ground on the other side of the ball. The total has stayed under in four of the last six meetings, and it is staying under again this time around.

Game Pick: UNDER

Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints (1 p.m. FOX)

Total Line: 49.5

Game Overview

The crazy thing about this game is that if 3-8-1 Carolina finds some way to win and Atlanta loses to Green Bay on Monday night (which is a strong possibility), it will only be a half-game out of first place in the NFC South. The problem with that scenario is that the Panthers have been downright terrible during their current six-game slide. They gave up an average of 38 points in three road losses to Green Bay, Philadelphia and Minnesota.

The Saints snapped a three-game losing streak with last Sunday's 35-32 victory over Pittsburgh as the offense played closer to its usual prolific form that has averaged 26.9 points a game this season. New Orleans' defense is still filled with holes against both the pass and the run, and it is now ranked 24 ^th in the league in points allowed (26.5).

Game Trends

The total for this division clash was first set at 49.5, and as the week has worn on it has remained steady with the betting public. We know that Carolina gives up a ton of points on the road and that the Saints are still very good at scoring points. However, it also helps that the total has gone over in the Panthers' last five road games as underdogs and in four of New Orleans' last five home games as a favorite.

Game Pick: OVER

St. Louis Rams vs. Washington Redskins (1 p.m. FOX)

Total Line: 45

Game Overview:

Give the Rams credit for hanging tough all season long without its starting quarterback to get to 5-7 on the year. The offense did explode last week in a 52-0 romp over Oakland, but prior to that, St. Louis was averaging just 19.1 points a game. You also have to give credit to a defense that held Denver to 22 points and San Diego to 27 points before shutting out the Raiders. There is still plenty of fight left in this team to make a run at a winning record this year.

The fight is all but gone from a Washington team that could have trouble avoiding another 3-13 record after losing nine of its first 12 games. Head coach Jay Gruden decided to go with Colt McCoy as his starting quarterback last week against Indianapolis, and while the offense did score 27 points, the end result was the same in a 49-27 loss. Regardless of who has been under center for the Redskins this season, this offense has had its issues scoring points over the course of the year.

Game Trends:

The betting odds for the total in this game were originally set at 45, and nothing has changed since then due to any early action. I am relying heavily on the Rams' defense to shut things down on Sunday as well as some of the past betting trends with these two teams. The total has stayed under in five of the Rams' last six road games as favorites, and it has also stayed under in six of Washington's last eight games as underdogs at home. Head-to-head, it has stayed under in six of the last nine games between the two.

Game Pick: UNDER

YTD Record: 19-19-1

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