NFL Totals Betting: Week 2 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 9/10/2014
Week 1 of the NFL regular season is in the books, and when it came to wagering on the "over/under" betting odds, the play on the under finished with a slight 9-7 advantage. I cashed in on all three of my picks by riding the under in all three games. This is the fourth straight season I will be releasing my weekly top three picks on the "over/under" betting lines for Doc's Sports.
As much as I would love to reflect on my early success, it is time to get back to work breaking down this week's matchups in search of three more winners. The following are my top three picks on the total line for Week 2 in the NFL based on betting odds by BetOnline.
Sunday, Sept. 14
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills (1 p.m. CBS)
Total Line: 43
The Miami Dolphins not only stunned New England last week as 3.5-point home underdogs, but they rolled up 33 points in that game. This was quite a feat for a team that averaged just 20.9 points a game last season, but it always helps when your opponent turns the ball over a few times. Look for a return to normalcy this week, especially since this game in on the road.
The Bills were another upset special with a 23-20 overtime win against Chicago as 6.5-point road underdogs. The thing that impressed me the most about this game was the way Buffalo's defense made life miserable for Jay Cutler and that high-powered Chicago offense. Just think what this unit should be able to accomplish at home against a bitter division rival.
The total line for this AFC East clash opened at 42.5, and it has climbed to 43.5 on BetOnline's latest NFL betting odds. That is the perfect direction for me as I am going against the betting public in this one. The total has stayed under in 10 of the Dolphins last 12 division games, and it has stayed under in five of the last eight games against the Bills.
Game Pick: UNDER
Houston Texans vs. Oakland Raiders (4:25 p.m. CBS)
Total Line: 39.5
The Texans held Washington to just six points in their season opener, and despite the loss of rookie sensation Jadeveon Clowney due to injury this defense showed solid signs of returning to the form that made it one of the best in the league a few seasons ago. Houston's offense managed to score only three points in the second half of that game against one of the worst defenses in the league. This tells me that it could still take a few more games for this side of the ball to pick up the pace.
I went with the under in Oakland's 19-14 loss to the Jets in Week 1, and I am riding the Raiders again this week given what I saw from that offense. Rookie quarterback Derek Carr did manage to complete over 62 percent of his 32 throws, but it added up to a grand total of 151 yards. He will be facing and even better pressure defense this week that should make it all the more harder to move the ball downfield.
The total line opened at 39.5 points, and it has held firm so far this week. Houston has a chance to match its win total from last season, so you know it is coming to play. Oakland has to play somewhat better given the home-field edge. The total has stayed under in five of the Texans last seven road games, and it has stayed under in nine of the Raiders last 12 games at home.
Game Pick: UNDER
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos (4:25 p.m. CBS)
Total Line: 51
Kansas City is already off to a poor start after winning its first nine games last season. The concern here is not an offense that was held to just 10 points; it's the 405 yards and 26 points the Chiefs gave up in the loss to Tennessee. Defense was this team's strong suit in its nine-game run last season and 12-4 record overall. While Kansas City should be able to come up with more than 10 points this week, there is a really good chance it gives up far more than 26 points to Denver on the road.
It appears to be business as usual for the defending AFC Champs with a 31-24 victory over Indianapolis in last Sunday night's opener. Peyton Manning threw for only 269 yards while completing just above 61 percent of his passes, but he led this team to scores when it needed them the most with three touchdown strikes through the air. The one concern here could be a defense that insisted on keeping this game interesting to the bitter end by giving up two fourth-quarter touchdowns.
I thought for sure that the total for this game would open higher than 51, but that was the opening line and where the number has stayed ever since This leaves me no choice but to make this matchup on of my top picks. The recent betting trends back me up with the total going over in the Chiefs last four road games and in five of the Broncos last seven games in Week 2 of the regular season.
YTD Record: 3-0
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