Basic strategy teasers are finally beginning to gain some traction after starting out the first half of the season with a losing record. The wager went 4-1 last week, 3-0 during Week 11 and 3-0 during Week 10 for a 10-1 mark over that span. What exactly are basic strategy teasers? And why should we bet on them? The teasers are two-team, six-point wagers that move underdogs of 1.5 to 2.5 points up and favorites of 7.5 to 8.5 down, in order to move past the strongest NFL key numbers of three and seven.
The general idea is that bettors can create a positive expected value play (meaning, mathematically, the wager is expected to win) by using teasers to move spreads around the most common margins of victory in the NFL, which happen to be by three and seven points. For Week 13 of the NFL season there are three basic strategy teaser games that could provide solid value for bettors. Let's take a closer look at the matchups and figure out which have the most value to bet on.
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Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
Six-point teaser: Jaguars +8.5
The Jaguars have not been "that" bad this season with a 4-7 SU record, and over eight points worth of breathing room they might be the best teaser of the week. Jacksonville is ranked sixth against the run in the entire NFL as the team allows fewer than 94 yards per game. On the other side of the ball, Tennessee is 2-9 SU and 4-7 ATS, which won't inspire too much confidence from NFL bettors. The Titans are ranked dead last in total yards and points scored, but they do have a Top 10 defense in total and passing yards allowed this season. Prognosis: Tennessee is a bad team. There is no debating that fact. And even if they can win this game, will be it by more than eight points? Probably not.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: Falcons +2.5
Six-point teaser: Falcons +8.5
Atlanta is on an ugly four-game losing streak that may cost the group a playoff spot after starting out the year 5-0. The Falcons are ranked in the Top 5 in total and passing yards gained, but it seems like quarterback Matt Ryan also makes a huge mistake when things matter most. However, at least Atlanta can say they are underachieving at 5-6, because no one expected the Buccaneers to produce more than three or four wins during the entire year, let alone five by Week 13. The one thing Tampa Bay does well is rush the ball, which helps to keep games relatively low-scoring. Prognosis: This isn't a great teaser, but Tampa Bay is a bad team that can't score, while Atlanta is a bad team with a solid offense. Take the Falcons plus the points.
New York Giants vs New York Jets
Spread: Giants +2
Six-point teaser: Giants +8
Both New York teams have been better than most people expected entering the season. The Jets are an excellent defensive team and even improved after the departure of ex coach Rex Ryan. The Giants, on the other hand, have been a solid betting option for NFL gamblers, with a 6-4-1 ATS record and 7-4 mark against the "over". These teams haven't meet since 2011, so there is no recent history to hang our hats on. The Giants, however, are one of the highest-scoring teams in the league, and they will be receiving eight points in this spot. Prognosis: The Giants are at home and can score points in a hurry. This is an excellent spot to take the teaser.
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Read more articles by George Monroy
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