Basic strategy teasers continue to struggle early in the 2015 season, and after posting another 1-2 record last weekend, the wager is now 4-6 on the season. During this time last year, the teasers had produced a 9-4 mark and were one of the most solid bets on the board. Basic strategy teasers, which are two-team wagers that move spreads by six points past the NFL key numbers of three and seven, need to win at a 72 percent rate in order to be profitable.
Heading into Week 4 there are only three qualifying teaser games-the wager uses favorites of -7.5, -8.0, -8.5 and underdogs of -1.5, -2.0, -2.5-which involve two home favorites being teased down and a home underdog being teased up. Let's take a closer look at this weekend's games and figure out which are the best to wager on.
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Arizona Cardinals versus St. Louis Rams
Spread : Arizona -7.5
Six-point Teaser : Arizona -1.5
I say this every week and will continue to say it until proven wrong-Arizona is a monster. Coach Bruce Arians has the pulse of his team, the entire squad seems to have a chip on its shoulders, and quarterback Carson Palmer is playing the best football of his life.The Cardinals currently have a +77 point differential heading into Week 4 and continue to creep up the Super Bowl futures board with +600 odds, which are the third-best in the league.
Arizona may be the best team in the league and at the very least is Top 3. The squad is leading the league in points scored and is third in fewest points allowed with an average of 16.3. This matchup is a divisional game between two excellent defensive teams, but Arizona is on another level at the moment. Prognosis: This is an excellent teaser. Take Arizona minus the points.
Miami Dolphins versus New York Jets
Spread : Miami +2
Six-point Teaser : Miami +8
Miami is coming off a 27-point loss to the Buffalo Bills last week and a three-point loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars the week before. Many experts had high hopes for the Dolphins heading into the 2015 season, but the squad is struggling to meet expectations at the moment. New York, on the other hand, is sitting on a 2-1 record and nine-point margin of victory through three games and has improved drastically on defense, which is a bit surprisingly since defensive guru Rex Ryan left the team last season.
The Jets are ranked first in fewest points allowed and fourth in fewest total yards and passing yards allowed. The jury is still out on whether New York is a legitimate playoff threat, but we what we do know is the team is good enough to shut down Miami's struggling offense. Prognosis: not a great teaser. Thinking about skipping it.
San Diego Chargers versus Cleveland Browns
Spread : San Diego -7.5
Six-point Teaser : San Diego -1.5
San Diego is in a spot where it simply cannot be trusted. The team is 1-2 SU and ranked 29th in rushing yards and 25th in points allowed. Quarterback Philip Rivers continues to struggle to find a rhythm behind unorganized and overwhelmed offensive line. The Pro Bowl quarterback has thrown four interceptions in three games, but he does continue to rack up yards and is ranked fourth in that category in the entire NFL.
Cleveland is also in a bad situation, and according to reports the team is stuck in a mini quarterback controversy with the coaches deciding to that Josh McCown would return to his starting role after two solid Johnny Manziel performances to open up the year. There have already been reports that the Cleveland locker room is unhappy with the choice. Taking San Diego is probably the correct play to make simply because they are at home. Prognosis: San Diego should cover this matchup, but this isn't a great teaser by any means.
Last Week's Record : 1-2
Overall Record : 4-6
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Read more articles by George Monroy
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