NFL Odds and Betting Week 2: Line Movements & Last-Minute News

by Alan Matthews - 9/19/2015

Handicapping Week 1 in the NFL is the hardest. But I would argue that Week 2 is when you can really capitalize on the public bettors. That's because they tend to overreact to what happens in the opening week.

For example, you can bet next-week line in Las Vegas before the previous week's games have been played. Tennessee was a 4-point underdog at Cleveland for Week 2 before the Titans went to Tampa and destroyed the Buccaneers last Sunday, with Marcus Mariota looking like Dan Marino (and Jameis Winston like Vinny Testaverde). Mariota became the first rookie in NFL history to post a perfect 158.3 passer rating on kickoff weekend (minimum 14 attempts). Only four rookie quarterbacks since 1970 have won their first two starts to begin a season. Three of those four players helped their teams qualify for the playoffs, including Joe Flacco of Baltimore (2008) and Mark Sanchez of the New York Jets (2009), who led their respective clubs to the AFC Championship Game as rookies. I don't think Tennessee is going there. By the way, Bovada has two Mariota specials this week: Will he break the rookie record of 26 TD passes ("yes" +150, "no" -200) and will he have another four-TD game in 2015 (yes +350, no -600).

Now the Titans are 1-point favorites and taking a massive lean. Certainly how bad Cleveland looked Week 1 at the Jets also played a role. And it's official: Johnny Manziel will start Sunday against the Titans because Josh McCown has not been cleared from a concussion.

Here are some other line moves or potential game-changing injury notes.

Patriots at Bills (pick'em): This line opened with New England as a 1.5-point favorite, and certainly the Patriots did nothing in Week 1 to deserve not still being favored here. In addition, the Pats get back starting running back LeGarrette Blount from his one-game suspension. But bettors are perhaps overreacting to how dominant Buffalo was in its Week 1 win over Indianapolis, another top AFC contender. The key injury here: Bills running back LeSean McCoy was limited in practice on Friday and is questionable with a hamstring injury. Buffalo needs him to keep Tom Brady and Co. off the field. The Patriots' run defense was gashed by Pittsburgh's DeAngelo Williams for 127 yards in Week 1.

Falcons at Giants (-2.5): This opened at -1, and the action is about split down the middle. I give two reasons for a possible move: the Giants are going to be incredibly desperate after totally choking away last Sunday night's sure win in Dallas; and Atlanta star receiver Julio Jones is dealing with a hamstring injury. The Eagles could not contain him on Monday night, a 26-24 Falcons win. Jones did return to practice Friday so should play.

Cardinals at Bears (+1.5): This was as high as 2.5, and I think it might get back there by kickoff because of two Bears who were added to the injury report on Friday: top receiver Alshon Jeffery is questionable for the game after missing practice on Friday with a hamstring injury. Also questionable is probably the Bears' best defensive player, linebacker Pernell McPhee, with wrist and knee injuries.

Dolphins at Jaguars (+5.5): Miami is taking the biggest lean of any team in Week 2. It looks like Jaguars receiver Marqise Lee will make his season debut off a hamstring injury but that arguably the team's best defensive player, tackle Sen'Derrick Marks, will not as he recovers from a torn ACL suffered at the end of last season. He's close, though. I get why Miami is favored and taking huge action (there will probably be more Fins fans in attendance as well), but this feels like a major look-ahead game with the home opener vs. the improved Bills up next.

Bucs at Saints (-10): This line opened as high as 10.5 and has dropped to 9.5 at some books. It's easily the biggest spread on the board. I feel this is an overreaction on how bad Tampa was in Week 1. The Bucs also played last Sunday without starting receiver Mike Evans, who is a difference-maker with his size, and he will be a game-time call here. Tampa lost both games to New Orleans in 2014 but easily could have won both. Check out Bovada for some interesting Jameis Winston specials for this week as well.

Ravens at Raiders (+6.5): This has jumped from an open of 6, and Oakland is the top home dog on the board. Baltimore is just behind Miami for the biggest lean of the week. It now appears that Raiders starting QB Derek Carr will play after being knocked out of last week's home blowout loss to Cincinnati with a thumb injury.

Texans at Panthers (-3): This has dropped from 3.5. I was interested to see what the public would do when it was announced that Ryan Mallett would replace Brian Hoyer as Houston's starting quarterback. But it apparently hasn't had much impact -- Houston is taking the lean right now. Pretty interchangeable guys, I guess. Carolina is going to be without its best defensive player in linebacker Luke Kuechly, who is dealing with a concussion. That's a big deal, and you don't say that about but maybe a handful of defenders.

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