NFL Offseason Betting Report: Handicapping Some Early Futures Odds
by Dave Schwab - 4/1/2015
The initial mad rush of free agency signings has passed, and the debate over the top picks in the upcoming NFL Draft still rages on. This is all part of the painstaking process of getting through the NFL offseason until we once again have actual games to bet on.
To help you get through the withdrawal, Sportsbook.ag has already posted a number of different NFL futures odds to bring you some early action. The following is a brief look at a few of these futures odds along with my current value picks based on the numbers.
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Super Bowl 50 Futures
While some pretty big names will be playing for a different team come the start of the 2015 season, the top favorites to win Super Bowl 50 have pretty much remained the same.
The team at the top of the list is the Seattle Seahawks at +600. They have already been to the last two Super Bowls with a victory over Denver followed by a loss to New England. The last time any team went to more than two Super Bowls in a row was Buffalo in 1993. The Bills went on to lose their fourth straight title game that season.
The second-favorite to win Super Bowl 50 is the Green Bay Packers at +750 followed by New England at +800. Indianapolis is fourth on the current list at +850, and Denver rounds out the top five at +1500 betting odds.
There is some value in the Broncos as sentimental favorites in what could very well be Peyton Manning's last season in the NFL. Anyone who has been around long enough remembers what John Elway did in his last season in the league with Denver back in 1998.
My 'if everything goes right' pick for Super Bowl 50 is Philadelphia at +1800 betting odds. That means new quarterback Sam Bradford and running back DeMarco Murray have to stay healthy for the entire season as do most of the injury-plagued free agents the Eagles signed this offseason.
NFC Championship Futures
It stands to reason that Seattle would be on the top of this list as well at +300 odds, followed closely by Green Bay at +400. These two teams made some big strides to getting even better next season with the Seahawks trading with New Orleans to land All-Pro tight end Jimmy Graham and Green Bay resigning wide receiver Randall Cobb while adding both Tramon Williams and AJ Hawk to the defensive side of the ball.The odds drop off after that with Dallas third on the list at +800 and Philadelphia next at +900.
Going with the 'everything does not go right' in Philly approach, there may be some solid value in the New York Giants at +1900. They have been lying in the weeds the past two seasons and are overdue to make a run in the suddenly competitive NFC East at another Super Bowl appearance behind head coach Tom Coughlin and quarterback Eli Manning.
AFC Champions Futures
New England is still at the top of this list at +340 as a perennial favorite to win the AFC, but the betting public has gravitated towards Indianapolis as the offseason has progressed.
The Colts are now a close second at +400 to make their first Super Bowl appearance with Andrew Luck at the helm. Indianapolis has also helped their cause with the addition of some key veteran leadership in running back Frank Gore and wide receiver Andre Johnson. If both of these former All Pros have anything left in the tank, the Colts could easily end up on top of the AFC this season.
The betting odds for a few of the other favorites include Denver at +550 and both Baltimore and Pittsburgh at +1500.
Super Bowl 50 Matchup Futures
While both Seattle and New England have the best individual odds to win their respective conference next season, the top betting odds when it comes to a Super Bowl 50 matchup belongs the Seahawks verses the Colts at +1200. The odds for a rematch between Seattle and the Patriots is next on the list at +1500 followed by the Packers verses New England at +2000.
Applying the logic from my previous NFL futures picks, I am stretching the value in these odds with an Eagles vs. Colts matchup in Super Bowl 50 at +4500. To hedge this bet, I am also looking at a smaller play on the Giants facing the Colts in next season's Super Bowl at +9000.
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Read more articles by Dave Schwab
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