NFL Week 1 Lines are Out: Expert Handicapping and Predictions for Early Value in Odds

by Vernon Croy - 7/22/2015

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson

Think it's too early to place down a bet on the beginning of the 2015 NFL season? Think again! The week 1 point spreads are already out, and while they're certain to change between here and kickoff for anything from injury to roster moves to preseason performance and more, there is already early betting value to be found. Take a look at a few of those early values.

Giants (+5.5) at Dallas Cowboys

Since the new stadium has opened in Big D, it's mostly been a big letdown for the home team when the New York Giants and Eli Manning are in town. That streak of road success has been snapped, but giving the Giants 5.5 points at a stadium they're entirely comfortable in provides huge value.

The Giants should be confident and comfortable in their offense and should be able to put up some big numbers. Taking them with the points with that type of spread is a great move.

Seattle (-3.5) at St. Louis

St. Louis plays their better brethren in the division to very tough levels. That's especially the case at home, and especially the case with Seattle. Last year, they defeated the Seahawks by two points at home.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks are coming in off that heartbreaking Super Bowl defeat. Pete Carroll and the stars there will be saying all the right things, but will they be truly and fully prepared for this game? St. Louis with the points at home is a great value here.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) at New England Patriots

Many people are pegging the Patriots to be big losers in their first few games, or however long it is that the Tom Brady is out of the lineup. But that's a mistake. They get to open up the season at home, and the crowd will be intense.

Every other player on that team that won a Super Bowl will have a chip on his shoulder to say "we're more than Brady," and "we can and will win without him". Bill Belichick has a whole offseason to gameplan for this single game, and he will have backup Jimmy Garoppolo fully ready to go. The Patriots should win this game going away.

Of course, if you're not going to budge from the view that the Patriots will flounder without Brady, then getting 3.5 points and the Steelers isn't a bad deal, either. Plenty of money will be wagered on both sides of this line for this marquee matchup, that's to be certain.

About the Author: Vernon Croy is one of the most dominant NFL/CFB handicappers on the planet, and in 2013-14 he had the #1 win rate for the NFL/CFB season at 67% competing against over 90 of the world's top documented football handicappers.

Note from Vernon Croy:

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