2016 Super Bowl Betting Mistakes: Five Things To Avoid
by George Monroy - 1/26/2016
We've waited all year. Now there's only one game left to decide all the marbles; the Denver Broncos versus the Carolina Panthers. Super Bowl 50 is only a week+ away, and now the big question is who we are supposed to bet. Carolina might be a juggernaut, while Denver's defense is just intimidating. As most players already know, betting on the Super Bowl can be tricky business. The biggest key is to not get caught up in the Super Bowl hype and try to make as few mistakes as possible. For bettors, the Super Bowl might as well be an all you can eat buffet, so let's take a step back, breathe, and go over a five betting mistakes to avoid when wagering on the big game.
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Not shopping around : The Super Bowl is the most bet sporting event in the world, and various sites will tinker with their lines and offer different numbers to entice action. At the moment the Panthers can be found at anywhere from a minus 3.5 to a 5.5-point favorite at various Doc's Sports affiliated sites. The first big mistake many bettors will make is settling for a spread instead of shopping around. If you are taking Carolina, find the lowest possible spread on the market, and if you are taking Denver, find the most points on the market.
Betting too early or late : Two weeks can be an eternity in the sports world, so don't make the mistake of betting too early or too late. Injuries happen, stories emerge, but the biggest reason for finding the perfect middle ground is that Super Bowl lines tend to move back and forth leading up to the game. The opening spread of 5.5 points is probably the highest the line will be, so if you are a Carolina fan, don't settle for that number. Instead wait until next week and see if the line has moved. On the opposite end, if you are a Denver fan and wait until 10 minutes before the game to bet, you'll almost certainly lose those 5.5 points and get something much worse.
Going crazy on props : Prop bets can be fun, but is there any skill in wagering on the length of the "National Anthem" or on the opening coin toss? If you want to gamble, then go play blackjack or poker. If you want to sports bet, then take the time to find lines with value-the Super Bowl will have tons of them. But, if prop betting is your thing, there will be plenty of excellent player props that actually involve the game. Wager on those instead. Just stay away from betting on the color of the Gatorade bath.
Following the media : The mainstream sports media will report on mainstream storylines and not necessarily what bettors need to hear. Expect Peyton Manning to grab many of the headlines with his chance at recreating that John Elway storybook ending, but don't get caught up believing the game must end that way. The media might also jump on how good Carolina really is. However, even if they are the better team, there is a point where the spread gets too high and all the value shifts toward Denver. The Panthers at -5.5 might be too much, but the Panthers at -3.0 would be a steal. Think in terms of betting and not in terms of storylines.
Betting too much : The Super Bowl is the last game of the season, and for regular bettors there might be a temptation to go nuts by betting too much or betting on too many things. The best advice is to approaching this game the same way you would any other matchup. Do not up your betting limits or wager on random prop bets you didn't even know existed or bet on 10 different things. Just stock to your normal routine and approach the Super Bowl like any other game.
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Read more articles by George Monroy
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