Basic Strategy Teasers: Best Week 3 NFL Betting Options
Before I write 1,000 words explaining who I like and why I like them this week, let me take a moment to thank the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers for saving the NFL season and giving us something to be excited about heading into Week 3. Everywhere I turned and every expert who wrote or spoke words about this game expected it to be a sloppy, low-scoring, typical Thursday night football game like we've grown accustom to. Instead, the consensus pick of "under" 39 was basically toast at half time and that missed extra-point from Robbie Gould early in the fourth quarter came back to bite the Niners in the butt. It was also a fantasy owners dream, with Todd Gurley, Carlos Hyde, and Sammy Watkins all breaking 20 points. But that's a story for another day.
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The weekend action has a lot to live up to, and I feel like it will. This will be the weekend that reminds us all why we love football and that despite the sluggish start to the season (by all 32 teams), teams can flick the switch and entertain us and leave us wanting more. There are two games with totals of over 50 and I don't see how either one stays "under" the number. The first is Atlanta (-3) vs Detroit and the other is the Sunday-nighter between Oakland (-3) and Washington. There are also eight games with a spread of -3 or smaller, which should give us some pretty competitive games. Personally, I'm looking forward to watching the Denver/Buffalo game from the early slate and the Raiders/Skins game for the nightcap.
From a betting perspective, we were able to cash our "Basic Strategy Teaser" for the second week in a row for a profit of 0.8-units. This brings the record to 2-0 +1.6-Units. To briefly recap, the Baltimore Ravens took care of the Cleveland Browns 24-10 while forcing five turnovers, and the Arizona Cardinals saved their season by coming back from a 13-3 fourth-quarter deficit to force overtime and ultimately win 16-13. Thank god for teasers.
For those of you who missed out on last week's win, I got you covered once again this week. There are currently three games that fall within the "Basic Strategy Teaser" outline. If this is your first time reading, you can find the requirements and how to play a BST here . In a nutshell, you need two teams in order to build out a six-point teaser, and I always tell readers to shop around for the best possible line.
Over the next several months, I will be offering you a "Best Bet" six-point teaser as well as any alternative options to consider playing.
Best Six-Point Teaser for Week 3. Lines courtesy of 5Dimes
Pittsburgh -2.5 & Seattle+8.5 (-110)
Risk: $100 to win $83.33
As we move into Week 3, this will be the last time I explain these spreads. Pittsburgh is currently laying eight-and-a-half points on the road to Chicago and Seattle is getting two-and-a-half points as visitors in Tennessee. By combing these two teams and utilizing a six-point teaser, the end result would be a ticket that looks like the above.
But enough about logistics, let's get down to the football business.
The Steelers haven't exactly looked like world beaters through two games this year, but they are still 2-0 and look destined to capture another AFC North Title (the Browns and Bengals suck, and the Ravens will likely falter). The offense has yet to find it's stride despite putting up 26 against a decent Vikings' defensive unit. They are averaging 23.5 points per game (11th), 244 passing yards (11th) but just 68.5 rushing yards per game (29th). We all know about Le'Veon Bell's holdout, so it should come as no surprise that he has struggled through the first two games while shaking off the rust. I am predicting this is the game he breaks out and get's back to running like the Bell we know. The Steelers' home-and-away offensive splits are well documented, and for whatever reason the passing game tends to regress on the road. This is why Bell will be vital. The Bears give up 341 total yards per game, including almost 100 on the ground. Mix that in with an offense that is ranked 26th in points per game with 12 and we have ourselves a solid spot to back the Steelers. If you are worried about the aforementioned home/road splits and laying eight-and-a-half points doesn't appeal to you, taking the Steelers in a six-point teaser will allow you to get them by less than a field goal. I'd be shocked if the Steelers didn't win this game outright.
The second leg this six-point two-team teaser is the Seattle Seahawks. I may kick myself for trusting them on the road after watching last week's dismal performance at home to the Niners, but I just can't see this team getting blown out by an overrated Titans squad. Make no mistakes about it, the Seahawks have issues on the offensive side of things. Their offensive line stinks, which is hurting the run game and depriving Russell Wilson time in the pocket to make accurate throws. The fortunate thing for Seahawks' nation is that we've seen this narrative before and they normally get their heads out of their behinds and play like the Super Bowl contender we always make them out to be. I believe this is one of those spots where the real Seahawks come to play and keep this game close.
Their opponent, the Titans, are coming off an impressive 37-16 over the Jacksonville Jaguars. If we've learned anything so far about this young season, is that you shouldn't anoint a team after just one game. The Titans offense, likely without a 100 percent healthy DeMarco Murray , will find it tough to move the ball up and down the field against a solid Seahawks defense. The Seahawks are allowing just 13 points per game and only 187.5 passing yards per game. If the Titans can't establish a run game with Derrick Henry, the offense will be in for a long afternoon and Marcus Mariota will likely struggle.
If you are a risky bettor and love sweating out your picks, you can settle for the Seahawks +2.5 or take them on the money line. However, I am in the business of winning bets, thus teasing the Seahawks up to +8.5 is the best option when betting this game.
Alternative Option: Detroit +2.5 to Detroit +8.5. If you are looking for another team that falls with the BST parameters, look no further than the Detroit Lions. They have a home date against the Atlanta Falcons, with the winner getting to 3-0 on the season. Despite the two wins, the Lions still haven't sold me on being a team I can trust with my money. I don't recommend playing against the Falcons indoors because we all know what their offense is capable of. This has the makings of a shootout, so if you believe whoever has the ball last is going to win, taking the points is a great option. I do not, but then again, I am trusting the Seahawks on the road. What do I know?
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