Expert NFL Betting Picks: "Over/Under" Touchdown Passing Props

by Trevor Whenham - 8/4/2017

We just looked at who is most likely to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns this year (I picked Aaron Rodgers again, but hated the +600 price, and looked at Marcus Mariota at +3300 as the live long shot). That category is really only relevant to a few quarterbacks who combine the skills with the situation to put up big numbers, though. So what I want to do now is be more democratic and let other QBs have their moment in the TD sun. BetOnline has posted over/under totals for pretty much every QB that matters in the NFL for the number of TD passes they will throw. Let's go on a hunt for value, shall we?:

Derek Carr (o/u 30.5): Carr had 32 touchdowns two years ago and 28 last year in 15 games. The team around him is talented and could be ready to compete at a high level. You could be a bit concerned that the massive new contract will weigh on his mind, but he has the makeup to handle it. Assuming he stays healthy, you can't, at the very least, comfortably take the under here. And he has a chance to go solidly over.

Blake Bortles (o/u 24.5): Bortles had 23 touchdowns n a terrible season for a lousy team last year and an impressive 35 the year before. There is a legitimate concern that he isn't really an NFL QB, but the team doesn't have an immediate replacement for him, so he is likely to last the season at least. He and the team are both considerably better than their three-win debacle of last year and should be able to show it. I like the over here quite a lot.

Carson Wentz (o/u 22.5): Wentz had just 16 touchdowns in 16 games last year, but he had seven in his first four before running into reality a bit. There was a whole lot to like about his game, though, and things should slow down quite a bit for him this year. The Eagles aren't a loaded team, but they have enough pieces to work with, and I expect a step forward in his sophomore season. Marcus Mariota went from 19 to 26 touchdowns, and Jameis Winston from 22 to 28. A similar level of improvement puts the over in play here. It's worth a look at least.

Deshaun Watson (o/u 17.5): It all comes down to whether Watson wins the job early on and keeps it all season. The Texans are invested in him, and he certainly knows how to handle pressure and to win. Early reports out of camp are strong, too. I like his chances. If he does get the job then he has a strong team around him and has a very good chance of going over. This is another one worth a good look - unless you are a big Tom Savage believer, I guess.

Marcus Mariota (o/u 27.5): I am enthusiastically on the over here. Mariota had 26 last year, and he missed a game and a half due to injury. He's a remarkably talented guy who should be even better than ever in his third year. He has an incredible offensive line to play behind, and with Corey Davis and Eric Decker added he has his best receiver group ever, too. If he can stay healthy then he should be over this early in December. I love this bet.

Jared Goff (o/u 17.5): I've been all about the overs, but I'll go under here without hesitation. If Goff was ready for primetime then he would have played at least some meaningful time sooner last year - it's not like the Rams had anything to lose. He had five touchdowns, but that is misleading because three came against a New Orleans team that was in defensive revolt at the time and allowed 49 points in one of the worst defensive efforts in recent memory. Goff isn't as good as Carson Wentz - I thought that before the draft and that hasn't changed - and Wentz only had 16 this year. Wentz was on a better team, too. The under feels very comfortable here.

Aaron Rodgers (o/u 35.5): Rodgers has gone over this total is four of his last five full seasons. He led the league in touchdowns last year and is well positioned to do so again this year. He's still young enough to be highly productive, and his team remains strong around him. The over is the right play - but not a particularly exciting one.

Tom Brady (o/u 35.5): Brady had 36 two years ago to lead the league and 28 in just 12 games last year. He obviously is capable of big things. He's also 40, though, and we don't know how many concussions he has had. At some point he is going to fall off. I wouldn't ever bet against him - not as smart and efficient as he is - but I also can't justify aggressively betting the over, either. This has to be a pass at this price.

Andrew Luck (o/u 32.5): Luck may not even be physically ready to start the season, and even if he is his team is not great around him and his health is a question mark. The under is the only thing to even consider here.

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Expert NFL Betting Picks: "Over/Under" Touchdown Passing Props

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