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NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 4: Expert Pick'em Predictions No Point Spread


by Chris Vasile - 9/25/2019

San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers

Without getting into too much of a detailed recap, last week provided us with some head-scratching results. Teams like the Saints, Giants and Panthers all won their games straight up, despite being +4.5, +6.5 and +2.5, respectively. These three teams were starting backup quarterbacks whether it be through injury or a benching. And they still went on the road and won football games. Football is a funny sport, and it wouldn't surprise me to see all three teams follow up their high point by falling flat on their faces this week against their opponents.

It should come as no surprise to you that Confidence Pools have grown in popularity over the last number of years. The concept of just picking a team to win straight up is much more appealing to the average bettor who is still understanding how the point spread part of the equation works . There have been many instances where we wished we had taken a team straight up instead of on the spread, only to have them not cover by half a point. It's frustrating, but with a Confidence Pool, you won't ever have to worry about that. For the entire season, I'll be breaking down the game list and ranking each game from most confident to least confident.

Related: Matt's Week 4 NFL Survivor Pool Picks Ranked in Confidence Pool Order

Week 4 Confidence List (my selection listed first)

Los Angeles Chargers over Miami - Last week I wrote: "anyone playing the Dolphins will garner my utmost confidence". Well, it's the Chargers this week, and they have to be pissed about letting a winnable game slip away last week vs Houston. The Chargers win this one going away, and it's not even close.

Los Angeles Rams over Tampa Bay - In an alternative universe, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have likely never missed a field goal or extra point. However, on earth, they have terrible kicking luck and just got torched by a depleted Giants squad starting a rookie quarterback. The Rams are so efficient on offense, and back at home, they should be able to handle the Bucs with ease.

Kansas City over Detroit - Detroit should be 3-0 but let their opening game slip away and end in a tie. This game will mark their first loss of the season as they simply don't have what it takes to keep up with Kansas City on offense, nor do they have the defense to contain the Chiefs high-powered attack. Kansas City is laying a touchdown, and this may be my favorite spread bet of the week.

Indianapolis over Oakland - Half the people I talk to are surprised the Colts are 2-1, while the other half isn't. Jacoby Brissett is proving to be a legitimate QB, and the weapons around him are producing. Now they get an Oakland team that is still banged up and is playing their second straight East Coast road game. Indy gets the job done easily at home.

Related: Trevor's Week 4 NFL Survivor Pool Picks

Baltimore over Cleveland - There's no sugar coating the start to the season the Cleveland Browns have had. They've been brutal and are on the verge of busting the entire season. It doesn't get any easier going into Baltimore for a division game when the chemistry on both sides of the ball just isn't there. Baltimore lost a battle last week to the Chiefs but will rebound in a big way against a Cleveland team that just keep beating themselves.

Houston over Carolina - Both of these teams won games they were supposed to lose last week, and it was the Panthers who had the more impressive win. Kyle Allen proved that he could be a serviceable QB in the wake of Cam Newton's absence. However, let's not mistake the Cardinals defense for the 1985 Bears. Houston has a much better defense, and it has the offense needed to put points on the board. Houston wins this one without much of a fight.

Green Bay over Philadelphia - The Thursday night game figures to be much more entertaining than any other prime time game we've had so far this season. The Eagles limp into this game on offense but do have a defense that might be able to stop Aaron Rodgers and Co. Unfortunately, that's unlikely to happen as we like how Rodgers is moving the ball and finding all of his options, and the Packers suddenly have a top defense in the league. The Packers can be scary good this season, and they should win this game easily.

New England over Buffalo - This is the most excited Bills fans have been for a game against the Patriots since… ever. Both teams are 3-0 on the season, and the Bills think they have a shot at knocking off the mighty Patriots. I don't believe that's the case. The Patriots simply have too many attacking options, and they have a great defense, one that can limit Josh Allen in both the passing and rushing game. The Patriots are favored by 7.5 . And while I believe the Bills cover, the Patriots will do enough to leave Orchard Park with another win.

Pittsburgh over Cincinnati - From a battle of 3-0 teams to a battle of 0-3 teams. This game is all kinds of terrible, and who really cares who wins as both these teams are missing the playoffs. We'll take the home Steelers in this spot, though, as they likely won't be able to leave the stadium without getting pelted with eggs if they lose to the Bengals. Incentive over anything else.

New York Giants over Washington - The Giants have a new savior in town in QB Daniel Jones but are going to be without their franchise RB, Saquon Barkley. We saw Jones move the ball on a terrible Bucs secondary, and he should be able to do that again against the Redskins. Washington stinks, and not even Case Keenum can ruin Jones' coming home party.

Jacksonville over Denver - This is my favorite underdog play of the week. I believe in Gardner Minshew, and I really don't believe in Joe Flacco. Every time the Broncos have a chance to do something good and score (like last week against GB), Flacco throws a pick or someone fumbles the ball. Denver doesn't even have a recorded sack yet this season. Jacksonville's defense steps up in a big way, and the legend of Minshew grows bigger.

Seattle over Arizona - Everyone and their grandmother was on Seattle last week against a Saints squad without Drew Brees. Except, the Seahawks simply forgot to show up. They were run off of their home field. And if we know Pete Carroll like we think we do, he'll have laid into his team and they'll be fired up to get the win this week.

Minnesota over Chicago - This game is an enigma. Are the Bears good? I ask that because they've lost to the Packers but beat up on the lowly Broncos and Redskins. If yes, Kirk Cousins loses this game for the Vikings, because Kirk Cousins doesn't beat good teams. If the Bears are bad, this is a vintage Cousins 300+yards and three-touchdown performance. The jury is out, but I'll gladly take the under in the game every day. I lean Thielen, Diggs, and Cook over Allen Robinson and Tarik Cohen.

Atlanta over Tennessee - This game is a dumpster fire. Atlanta continues to play way below expectations, while the Titans simply have no clue how to run an offense. You'd have to think that Matt Ryan is the better option at home than Marcus Mariota is on the road. I wouldn't bet this game if you paid me to.

Dallas over New Orleans - Dallas is going to win this game, right? Well I'm not sure, and that's why it's my least-confident pick. We saw the Saints march into Century Link Field and destroy the Seahawks. Now they return home with the same starting QB and the same weapons surrounding him. The Cowboys have played three cupcake teams to start the season, so this will be there first true test. On the road, I'm not so sure they pass it.

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