NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 5: Expert Pick'em Predictions No Point Spread

by Chris Vasile - 10/2/2019

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes

It was a wacky Week 4 in the National Football League as we saw eight underdogs win outright last week, and, shockingly, only four home teams emerged victoriously. Bettors who keyed in favorites on teasers got killed. And for the most part, "over" bettors also took it square on the chin. Based on the Week 5 NFL spreads, I wouldn't be shocked if the underdogs had another great week - which doesn't bode well for confidence pool players.

It should come as no surprise to you that Confidence Pools have grown in popularity over the last number of years. The concept of just picking a team to win straight up is much more appealing to the average bettor who is still understanding how the point spread part of the equation works. There have been many instances where we wished we had taken a team straight up instead of on the spread, only to have them not cover by the hook . It's frustrating, but with a Confidence Pool, you won't ever have to worry about that. For the entire season, I'll be breaking down the game list and ranking each game from most confident to least confident.

Week 5 Confidence List (my selection listed first)

New England at Washington - The Patriots had their scare last week against the Bills. However, thanks to the ineptness of the Bills franchise, they simply couldn't get the job done. Now the Pats have the perfect rebound game against a terrible Washington team. Doesn't matter if it's Case Keenum or Dwayne Haskins under center, the Patriots are winning this game by 14+.

Philadelphia vs New York Jets - The Eagles essentially shocked the betting world last week as they walked into Lambeau Field on a short week and proceeded to run the ball down the Packers throat. Wentz looked in sync with his receivers as well. And against a Jets team that is still starting Luke Falk, this is a must-win game for the Eagles. We believe they get the job done with ease.

Kansas City vs Indianapolis - It wasn't pretty, but the Chiefs managed to escape Detroit with a win to keep their perfect record alive. Indy, on the other hand, lost at home to a bad Raiders squad, and their offense looked completely out of sync with Brissett under center. We don't see how Indy is going to keep pace with the high-flying Chiefs offense, and we expect Mahomes to get back to his touchdown throwing ways at Arrowhead. Chiefs win this one by 14+.

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver - Despite a plethora of injuries, the Chargers just keep finding ways to win football games. It helps by playing the Dolphins (as they did last week), but now they get another terrible team in the form of the Broncos. The offense is simply clicking on all cylinders right now, and the return of Melvin Gordon will only boost their production. The Broncos defense is not what it once was, and the offense, with Joe Flacco under center, is brutal. Chargers win this one easily.

Chicago vs Oakland - Chicago rode its defense to a win against Minnesota last week despite Mitchell Trubisky going out with a shoulder injury. Many people, including myself, believe Chase Daniel gives the Bears every chance to win football games moving forward. And against a Raiders defense that is allowing 25 points per game, we believe the Bears go into London and come away with their fourth straight win.

Minnesota at New York Giants - This is one of those games where Kirk Cousins bounces back and throws four touchdowns against a terrible Giants defense only to have us back the Vikings the following week and watch them lose. Cousins beats bad teams as seen by his 5-27 mark as a starter against teams with a winning record. The Giants are somehow 2-2. However, make no mistake about it, they are still starting a rookie QB and are without their franchise running back in Saquon Barkley. Minnesota wins this game, because that's what they do.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans - Sooner or later, Teddy Bridgewater is going to have to make plays with his arm and keep pace with a great offense. The Bucs are a great offense when clicking as seen by the 55-spot they posted last week against the Rams. We don't see any reason to believe the offense comes crashing back down to earth against a Saints defense that is average at best. We are taking Tampa in a mild upset.

Jacksonville at Carolina - Both teams are coming off impressive road wins vs Denver and Houston, respectively, so this game is all about which QB you believe in more. Do you trust Kyle Allen and his supporting cast, or do you believe in the legend of Gardner Minshew and his mustache? We are going to side with Minshew in this game only because we believe they have a better defense and we believe they are finally putting all aspects of their game together both in the run and passing attack.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle - This Thursday night game has the potential to be just as good as last week's Eagles/Packers game. The Rams just got torched for 55 points, while the Seahawks easily handled the Cardinals. These two teams tend to play each other extremely close, so we'll grab the home team in this one. We trust Wilson at home more than we do Goff on the road.

Pittsburgh vs Baltimore - Are the Ravens as bad as they looked last week against the Browns? Probably not. Are the Steelers as good as they looked on Monday against the Bengals? Definitely not. So, what do we have here? We have a Ravens team that's lost two in a row and a Steelers team desperately trying to get back to .500. This game is a big toss-up, and I'd be happy to grab the Steelers on the upset playing at home.

Buffalo at Tennessee - The Bills had every chance in the world to finally beat the Patriots but couldn't quite get the job done. The Titans finally looked smooth on offense, but that was against a depleted Falcons defense. Against the Bills, it's going to be much tougher, and as such, we'll take the Bills in a small upset on the road. Remember how bad Mariota looked against a good Jacksonville defense? This game will be that, times two.

Cleveland at San Francisco - I've been saying this all along, the Browns have too much talent to be a terrible football team despite their recent history of shooting themselves in the foot. They played a dominant game against Baltimore and now get another primetime game against an overrated 49ers squad. I'm simply not sold on the 49ers as they've beaten the Bucs, Bengals, and Steelers (teams that are a combined 3-9).

Green Bay at Dallas - The Packers were exposed on Thursday night by a very below-average rushing attack of the Eagles. Now they have to contend with an elite back like Ezekiel Elliott, and we aren't sure how they are going to fare. What we do know is that this game should be closer to a pick'em on the spread, instead of 4.5, which entices us to take the Packers in an upset. Rodgers will have his way with an overrated Cowboys defense, and the Packers will get back in the win column.

Houston vs Atlanta - I'm officially done picking games that the Atlanta Falcons are a part of. The team has so many talented players on offense, yet every week they struggle to move the ball and put up points. Defensively, they have issues, but the offensive line of the Texans may be worse. This game is going to come down to which QB can make plays and limit the turnovers, so we'll go with Watson as he simply doesn't throw interceptions.

Arizona at Cincinnati - The Bengals are a terrible football team, and one can only hope they part ways with Andy Dalton sooner rather than later. We know that the Cardinals have yet to win a game, and Kyler Murray is running for his life seemingly on every down, but they have more playmakers than the Bengals do, and as such we are calling for an upset. Absolutely no confidence, though, and I recommend not betting on this game with real money.

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NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 5: Expert Pick'em Predictions No Point Spread

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