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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers


by Alan Matthews - 11/7/2019

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo

Wow, my condolences if you happened to get a total of 48.5 for the Monday night Week 9 game between the Cowboys and Giants from MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. The under looked like a sure winner with Dallas up 30-18 in the final seconds, but then the Cowboys sacked Giants turnover-prone rookie quarterback Daniel Jones, the ball squirted away about 10 yards and Dallas' Jourdan Lewis came away with it and returned it 63 yards for a touchdown. Cowboys win 37-18. Horrible beat. I split on my picks last week, missing the under 47.5 (I definitely saw it at 48.5 at some sportsbooks) but hitting on Dallas at -6.5 on an alternate line.

This Monday should be much more interesting as the San Francisco 49ers (8-0) are the NFL's only unbeaten team left and they host the Seattle Seahawks (7-2) in a huge NFC West game. If the Niners win Monday to go up three games in the loss column and with the early head-to-head tiebreaker, that division race is over. Should Seattle pull the upset, though, it's very much ongoing. The Seahawks appear to have the easier schedule left and host San Francisco in Week 17.

Seattle would be the top Wild-Card team as things stand currently with Minnesota (6-3) holding the second spot. The LA Rams (5-3) and Carolina (5-3) are right there, and I'm not ruling out Philadelphia (5-4). Seattle visits the Eagles in Week 12, hosts the Vikings in Week 13, visits the Rams in Week 14 and goes to Carolina in Week 15.

Seahawks at 49ers Betting Story Lines

Most sportsbooks still have Russell Wilson as the MVP betting favorite, although Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has caught Wilson at a few of them. Last week in a 40-34 home overtime win over Tampa Bay, Wilson threw for 378 yards with five touchdowns and zero picks. He leads the NFL with 22 touchdowns and a rating of 118.2 and has thrown the fewest interceptions with one.

That victory was Wilson's 90th career, tying Wilson with Ben Roethlisberger for the second-most victories by a QB in his first eight seasons in the Super Bowl era including playoffs. Naturally, Tom Brady is first with 100. Wilson will have a new toy on Monday in Josh Gordon, who was picked up off waivers last weekend and should debut here after being medically cleared to practice. The team also looked into Antonio Brown - just proves that no matter how big of a d*****bag you are, a team will sign you if you are talented. Wilson has a true No. 1 in Tyler Lockett but Gordon could potentially slide in as a No. 2 ahead of very promising rookie DK Metcalf and help make up for the season-ending loss of tight end Will Dissly a few weeks ago.

Wilson now goes up against a Niners defense that ranks No. 2 in points allowed (12.8 ppg), No. 1 against the pass (138.1 ypg) and has picked off 10 passes. That defense had allowed a combined 23 points over its past four games before looking a little shaky last Thursday in a 28-25 win in Arizona. Kyler Murray hadn't been doing much but then hit Andy Isabella on an 88-yard touchdown connection with 4:53 left to make things interesting.

Jimmy Garoppolo had the best game of his young career in throwing for 317 yards, four touchdowns and no picks - the first 49ers QB with those numbers since Jeff Garcia in 2000. Jimmy G has looked much better since the Niners traded for Broncos receiver Emmanuel Sanders.

San Francisco did lose linebacker Kwon Alexander to a season-ending injury in the Cardinals game but could get four key guys back from injury this week in tackles Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey, fullback Kyle Juszczyk and cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon. Staley is one of the best in the business, and the Niners use their fullback more than almost any team as a blocker/pass catcher.

Seahawks at 49ers Betting Odds and Trends

At 5Dimes, San Francisco is a 6.5-point favorite (-110) with a total of 46.5. On the moneyline, the Niners are -270 and Seahawks +230. On the alternate lines, the 49ers are -6 (-117) and -7 (+110). Seattle is 3-1 against the spread on the road and 2-2 "over/under." San Francisco is 2-1 ATS at home and 1-2 O/U.

The Seahawks are 9-4-1 ATS in their past 14 on Monday Night Football . They have failed to cover five straight following an ATS win. The 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their past five after an ATS loss. They are 2-6 ATS in their previous eight vs. the NFC West. The over is 6-1 in Seattle's past 10 vs. the NFC West. It's 8-3 in the Niners' past 11 vs. teams with a winning record. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings. The over is 5-2 in those.

Seahawks at 49ers Betting Prediction

Seattle had won 10 straight in this one-time evenly-matched series (when Jim Harbaugh was on the opposite sideline of Pete Carroll) but that ended in the final meeting last season, a 26-23 home OT 49ers upset in Week 15. Nick Mullens was the San Francisco quarterback then. The Niners got four field goals from Robbie Gould and a 97-yard kick return score.

I'm thinking something like 27-20 in favor of the 49ers - extra rest won't hurt -- so give the 6.5 points and go over the total.

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