Monday Night Football Picks: Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers

by Mike Allen - 12/12/2025

Wrapping up Week 15 on Monday Night Football, we get to see the Miami Dolphins visit the frigid conditions at the field formerly known as Heinz. Acrisure Stadium sounds cool, and yes, Heinz is a corporate name as well, but I really wish they would just keep the names of these legendary palaces as they are.

We might as well go ahead and address the South Florida team playing in frigid conditions. It wouldn’t be a December article with them on the road playing in cold weather if we didn’t bring this up.

I read and listened to a lot of opinions on this game, and the masses love Miami here. I’m just not buying it. Yes, they’re playing better than they did in the first half of the season. Good. That’s why the betting line is off, in my opinion.

Side note: In life, do we really have to say “In my opinion” all the time for people not to call us “know-it-alls”? Obviously, our opinion. We’re the ones saying it, but I digress.

A large percentage of the media, myself included, didn’t think Miami Dolphins’ head coach, Mike McDaniel, would still be their head coach at this point in the season. Even after losing star wide receiver and father to many, Tyreek Hill, to injury for the year, the team banded together and played inspired football to get themselves close to a .500 record.

Incredible story, bro.

You know what an even more remarkable story is? Aaron Rodgers, who everyone in the media loves to hate, was left for dead by them after “his” failure with the New York Jets, has the Steelers in sole possession of 1st place in the AFC North.

I know he’s limited. He’s 40+. Anyone that age in any sport is not the player they once were. You can’t listen to the media talk about this guy. They hate him. Call it Rodgers-Derangement Syndrome.

Let’s take a look at the betting odds for Monday Night Football, and I think we might have some recency bias we can take advantage of.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Miami Dolphins (+3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

We opened at (-3), and it went up to (-3.5) for a couple of days. I can understand some people liking that, but I wouldn’t have played Miami there either.

Point Total: 41.5

We are expecting cold weather. However, the winds will be moderate at about 10 MPH, and although snow is forecast for the weekend, Monday night looks clear. This could change, though, and for that reason, I’ll stay away from the total for now.

Moneyline Odds

Dolphins: +145

Steelers: -177

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Analysis

Let’s talk some on paper stats here. Miami has been running the ball very effectively lately, and people see that the Steelers gave up over 200 yards on the ground to the Ravens last week. Breaking that down a bit further, though, we see that Lamar Jackson accounted for 43, which is to be expected. Derrick Henry did have 94, but that was on 25 carries. That leaves Keaton Mitchell, who had 55 of his 76 yards on one play.

Now take Miami. Yes, they played well last week in cold weather…against the Brady Cook-led Jets. I had to look this kid up. These were the first snaps of the rookie’s professional career.

I don’t count this as a big road win. The only decent road victory for Miami came against the Atlanta Falcons, in a dome, of course, in Kirk Cousins’ first start of the season.

Let’s talk about some of their road losses, beginning with a 31-6 drubbing by the Dillon Gabriel-led Browns, in cold weather, I might add.

Miami loves to get the ball out of Tua Tagovailoa’s hands as soon as possible, and the Steelers’ defense is top 10 against quick throws this year.

If all this isn’t enough for you, Tagovailoa, under McDaniel, has a .280 winning percentage against winning teams and against losing teams, it jumps to .828. Take that for what you will, as Pittsburgh isn’t exactly dominant this year, but these are still substantial numbers.

Do you know what matters the most, though? The Dolphins with Tagovailoa under center have a 1-7 record in games played in <46 degrees. The lone win was last week’s win over the Jets in 41-degree weather.

The forecasted game time temperature for Monday Night Football this week is 17 degrees F.

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Pick

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

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Start:	December 12, 2025 @ 7:10 PM
Expert:	Raphael Esparza (VSI)
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