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Monday Night Football Picks: Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints Best Bets

by Ryan Cobbett - 10/1/2026

Monday Night Football picks Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints Bijan Robinson

Monday Night Football will feature a matchup between two NFC South Division foes, as the Atlanta Falcons head to New Orleans to take on the Saints. Both teams will look to improve on their losing records, as they sit at 1-2 through the first three weeks of the season. This is one of the most balanced divisional rivalries in history as the Atlanta Falcons hold an all-time 57-56 record against the New Orleans Saints. Atlanta is bringing in a lot of momentum after dismantling the Green Bay Packers in Michael Penix Jr.’s return to the field. Bijan Robinson took a lot of pressure off of his returning quarterback, and the Falcons looked like a competitive team for the first time this season. New Orleans, on the other hand, is coming off a tough loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, dropping their home opener 35-27. Atlanta wins and loses by the ground game, let’s see if New Orleans has an answer for them this week.

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Monday Night Football Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints Game Odds:

Atlanta Falcons: +2.5 / Moneyline: -148

New Orleans Saints: -2.5/ Moneyline: +124

Over/Under: 47.5

Monday Night Football Atlanta Falcons Game Preview

The Falcons completely destroyed the Packers last Thursday Night, winning 35-14 in front of a 76,000+ crowd at Lambeau Field. Atlanta fell just shy of 500 yards on offense, finishing with 498, thanks to a strong performance by Robinson. The Falcons averaged 5.9 yards per carry, converted 60% of their third downs, and they controlled the clock (37:05 TOP). Robinson finished with 194 rushing yards and two touchdowns, averaging 6.7 yards per carry. Drake London also had a huge game as he recorded 194 receiving yards on nine receptions. While Penix did get help from the ground game, he finished 18/25 passing, with 256 passing yards, and a touchdown. The defense thwarted the Packers’ already struggling ground game as they held Green Bay to just 17 rushing yards on just nine attempts. While the Falcons do currently rank 27th in PPG, now that Penix is back, expect more production. One thing Atlanta has done exceptionally well all season is controlling the ground game. Not only are they averaging 173 rushing YPG, but they have also limited opponents to just 47.7 rushing YPG. They lead the league in allowed rushing YPG.

The blueprint remains true here. If the Falcons want to win, they need to get Robinson going early and often. This keeps the Saints (much improved) offense off the field. Not only that, but the Saints have struggled against the run this year, ranking 27th in allowed rushing YPG. Establishing the ground game also opens up the game for Penix, which is needed in order for him to continue to grow confidence. If he can avoid turning the ball over here, the Falcons should win this one big.

Atlanta Falcons 3 Keys to Victory

  1. Give Bijan Robinson the Ball
  2. Limit Turnovers
  3. Keep Tyler Shough Off the Field

Atlanta Falcons Injuries

DE Samson Ebukam – Questionable

CB A.J. Terrell – IR

Monday Night Football New Orleans Saints Game Preview

The Saints are looking to pick up their first home win of the season, as they dropped their first home game to the Raiders last week. New Orleans handed the Raiders the win after allowing Las Vegas to record 13 points in the fourth quarter thanks to turnovers. The Saints fumbled the ball away three times, and Shough threw an interception on top of that. New Orleans outgained the Raiders by 41 yards, but they could not find the win column after a late-game collapse that was caused by penalties and turnovers. All four of the Saints’ fourth-quarter possessions were turnovers. Overall, the Saints offense ranks just outside the Top 10 with 27 PPG, and they have averaged 382.7 YPG through their first three contests. On defense, they have allowed 340.3 YPG and 27.7 PPG, both ranking in the lower half of the league.

The most important thing the Saints can do here is shut down Robinson. If they want any chance of winning this game, they are going to have to find a way to limit Robinson’s impact. If they can get the Falcons offense into obvious passing downs, they could have a chance to sneak away with a win. The next most important thing the Saints can do to win this game is not turn the ball over. It is rare to see an NFL collapse the way New Orleans did last week. They will not win a game again if history repeats itself this week.

New Orleans Saints 3 Keys to Victory

  1. No Turnovers
  2. Make Atlanta Throw the Ball
  3. Find the Shough/Olave Connection Early

New Orleans Saints Injuries

DT Christen Miller – Questionable

CB Martin Emerson Jr. – Questionable

WR Barion Brown – Questionable

RB Travis Etienne Jr. – Out

LB Anfernee Jennings – Questionable

LB Pete Werner – Questionable

OT Kelvin Banks Jr. - IR

Monday Night Football Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints Game Predictions

The Saints have some injury questions on the defensive side of the ball heading into this contest on Monday night. It is already hard to see them stopping Robinson, but doing so with a thin defense is nearly impossible. Expect Atlanta to control the clock in this one, depend on Robinson, and force Shough to beat them in the air. Bet on the Saints falling to 0-2 at home thanks to the Falcons newfound momentum with the return of Penix and their complete domination in the run game on both sides of the ball.

My Pick: Atlanta Falcons, +124 / Under 47.5

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