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Monday Night Football Picks: Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Best Bets

by Spencer Toth - 9/12/2026

Monday Night Football picks Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Rashee Rice

The first Monday Night Football matchup goes down this week, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs had their streak of nine straight AFC West titles snapped by the Denver Broncos last season, and they have an immediate chance at revenge as they welcome the Broncos to Arrowhead. It was a disappointing season for Kansas City that ended with Patrick Mahomes tearing his ACL, but a slew of offseason moves has them right back in contention.

Across the field, Bo Nix and company were bounced in the AFC Championship by the New England Patriots, but there is reason for optimism in their camp too. This may be a game that gets looked back at when the wins are being tallied up late in the season, making this as crucial of a Week 1 matchup as possible.

Can Kansas City reclaim top spot in the division, or is this the start of the Broncos’ reign on top? Let’s dive in.  

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Broncos at Chiefs Odds

Denver Broncos: +2.5, -140 Moneyline

Kansas City Chiefs: -2.5, +120 Moneyline

Over/Under: 43.5 Points

If the Kansas City Chiefs Win and Cover…

Kansas City has used a dominant defense combined with the best quarterback of the generation to string together three Super Bowls in the last decade. Patrick Mahomes suffered the first major injury of his career last year, their defense fell apart, and they finished 6-11. Looking ahead to this matchup, Kansas City is a worthy home favorite, but this is far from a straightforward win. 

On offense, the Chiefs will always be confident with Mahomes in the pocket. The longtime Chiefs quarterback hasn’t looked as dominant over the last year and a half, but he has proven he is still one of the best in the league. Kansas City struggled in the wide receiver department last year with Xavier Worthy’s injury and Rashee Rice’s off-field issues, but both are healthy and available for Week 1. Worthy’s speed means that even a short pass underneath can quickly turn into a big gain, while Rice has proven time and time again that he can come up in the clutch. At tight end, Travis Kelce is clearly declining, but it is hard to argue that there is another tight end in the league a team would rather have in the middle of the field in the fourth quarter. 

The Chiefs big offseason move on offense was prying Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III from the Seattle Seahawks. The Chiefs had to pay a pretty penny to secure Walker's signature, but they will be hoping this is the move they needed to get back on the league’s summit. Walker is not only a threat in the backfield, but his ability to act as another receiver makes the Chiefs a tough team to slow down. Assuming Mahomes is able to run the ball like before his injury, Kansas City has a clear advantage on offense. 

On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs have a few veterans anchoring a relatively young defense. Chris Jones and George Karlaftis have been a dominant duo for the last several seasons, but injuries have disrupted the Chiefs momentum. Losing Trent McDuffie gives them less security in the secondary, but the Chiefs drafted well and still have reliable names like L’Jarius Sneed and sixth overall selection Mansoor Delane down the field. If Kansas City can limit the big plays up the middle, they will put themselves in a great spot to secure a crucial home win. 

If the Denver Broncos Win and Cover…

Denver leaned on an incredibly dominant defense to earn the top seed in the AFC and their first playoff win since their 2015 Super Bowl victory. Bo Nix and the Broncos offense was consistent and rarely made big mistakes, but it was clear that their offense was carried by what the team did on the other side of the ball. 

On defense, Denver has 2024 Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain anchoring the secondary combined with a strong set of linebackers patrolling the middle of the field. They finished third in the league in points allowed last year, were incredibly strong in the red zone, and had a league-high 68 sacks. Denver’s ability to consistently generate pressure is what really separated this defense, and it came thanks to what they did down the field. Trusting Surtain in single coverage is a luxury few teams have, which allowed the Broncos to frequently dial up the blitz. Zach Allen is their best pass rusher with seven sacks for 47 yards lost, while Nick Bonitto led the team from linebacker with an astonishing 14 sacks. Kansas City has always had a strong offensive line over Mahomes’ career, but slowing down the Broncos up front is incredibly difficult. 

On offense, Denver needs another strong season from Bo Nix. Nix doesn’t get the same appreciation as some of the other quarterbacks in his draft class like Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and Caleb Williams, but he has been just as effective. He leads the draft with 20 career wins, and rarely makes mistakes. He still needs to improve his accuracy down the field, but there is no doubting his ability to lead this franchise. The Broncos went out and got Nix some help in the offseason, with Jaylen Waddle now commanding the WR1 role. Waddle was withering away in Miami but still put up impressive numbers, and he will slot in alongside Courtland Sutton to begin the season. Waddle and Sutton comprise an elite wide receiver tandem, while depth pieces like Troy Franklin and Marvin Mims Jr. give them a comprehensive pass catching room. Denver has all the pieces they need to succeed on offense, and it will all come down to execution when Monday night rolls around. 

Best Bets:

The Kansas City Chiefs are only moderate home favorites over Denver, something rarely seen over the course of Mahomes’ career. A spread under a field goal looks to be the play if Patrick Mahomes is actually 100% healthy, and everything from the Chiefs camp suggests he is. Mahomes was up to speed in preseason, rarely taking days off, and it appears as though he hasn’t missed a beat. We haven’t yet seen what a motivated Mahomes will look like after missing the playoffs, and not only the Broncos, but the entire league should be worried. Once you add in Mahomes’ best backfield with Walker III standing behind him, the Chiefs offense could be right back at levels seen during their Super Bowl dynasty. Denver certainly has a strong defense, but I am not fully convinced their offense will pick apart Kansas City. Nix and company relied on short fields and extra possessions to find success last season, and it is hard to say how they will react if they go down early on the road. For the first pick, we have no choice but to scoop up a spread under a field goal with the Kansas City Chiefs. 

Looking at the total, the over has to be the play. Primetime games, especially in Week 1, have been under machines in recent seasons, and we already saw both Wednesday’s and Thursday’s games stay well under this line. However, I expect the Chiefs offense to be humming and for Denver to do enough on the other side of the ball. Whether it is through defensive turnovers flipping the field or a few explosive plays, an up-tempo offensive approach will lead to plenty of possessions. We are catching key numbers of 44 and 47 with this line, and as long as it stays at 43.5 and doesn’t tick higher, the over is the way to go.
Top Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)
Pick: Chiefs vs Broncos Over 43.5 

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