Monday Night Football Picks: New York Giants vs New England Patriots

by Mike Allen - 11/27/2025

It isn't exactly the Yankees and the Red Sox, but make no mistake, this rivalry runs deep. I know you're not that young to forget about the Giants going two for two in Super Bowls against the Pats.

They let not Peyton, but Eli Manning, do it to them twice! You know, I think brother Eli just didn't care quite as much as his older brother. That was his edge in postseason play.

That first Super Bowl win in 2008 was the biggest, though, as New England had gone 16-0 in the regular season and, of course, won out until the big game. That is the kind of loss that you never forget.

Who was the starting outside linebacker on that team?

If you answered Michael George Vrabel, you are correct. The former Coach of the Year has always been a favorite of mine. Most of us thought he would do well in New England, but who had them 10-2 on Turkey Day, the best record in football?

It's not just the coaching, though. Second-year starting quarterback Drake Maye is having an MVP-caliber season. Looking at the current betting odds for the award, Matt Stafford is the clear favorite now at (-225), as he should be with 30 touchdowns and 2 picks.

Don't forget who told you to bet him immediately at 12-1 on Halloween. With Jonathan Taylor laying an egg against the Chiefs last week, Maye is the only other player with betting odds in the same stratosphere at (+200). The next player down the betting board is Taylor at 18-1!

That's how good Drake Maye has been this season. He throws a better deep ball and more accurately than Russell Wilson ever did, and he can scramble as efficiently as any QB in the league.

As for the New York Football Giants, well, they’ve successfully put together at this point, the most fan-friendly and fun trainwreck of a season you’re ever gonna see.

Jameis Winston is a national treasure. I can't wait until we see him behind the desk or in the booth. Will he even be the starter come Sunday, though? I'm hearing Jaxson Dart could make his return this week, but why?

They fired their head coach for obvious reasons, but I believe they did so when they did because he allowed, and potentially encouraged, Dart to use his head for all the wrong reasons.

He’s got more concussions than Cam Skattebo this year. Well, he has more documented dinks to the dome.

The G-Men released their unofficial depth chart yesterday, and Dart's name was at the top. We've learned, though, some of us the hard way, that this is not set in stone.

Let’s look at the point spread/total and see if we want to take another primetime betting favorite to handle business or hold our noses, and gulp down this circumin, kale, and celery shake.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

New York Giants (+7) at New England Patriots (-7)

The line opened up at (-7), and we're seeing both (-7) and (-7.5) out there for the Pats. Will we see a consensus 7.5 or possibly 8? I don't know.

My spidey sense is telling me that the Giants could be a public underdog here. They have been playing much better lately, highlighted by their overtime loss to the Lions last week.

I don't put too much into that game, though. It was about as big a sandwich spot for the Lions in between the Eagles and the Packers as we've seen all year.

Point Total: 46.5

In almost the exact percentage of sharp/square divide as we see on Sunday night, the Monday Night Football game has seen 50% of the tickets on the under, but with over 90% of the money. Both teams are virtually even in both sacks acquired and surrendered.

That’s where most of the similarities end, however, as the Giants have the worst run defense in the NFL. The injury bug may come to the rescue of New York here, as the Pats will be without their starting left tackle and left guard for Monday’s game.

Moneyline Odds

Giants: +300

Patriots: -390

New York Giants at New England Patriots Betting Analysis

I want to fade New York here, but they still have a killer pass rush. Think about how far the LA Chargers fell off when they were without Joe Alt, and now that the rest of the line has been decimated, they go from a Super Bowl contender to likely missing the playoffs.

The Giants' line isn't that big. That's why they're so much better than the pass than the run. If the injuries can take away the Pats' run game, New York could be live for an upset.

A proper pass rush is enough to win a game. Look at the Cleveland Browns last week. I know it was the Raiders, so maybe not the best example, but they could have kneeled on half their offensive snaps and still won by a margin.

If they were home dogs, we'd take them, but New York has 6 defensive starters listed as questionable, while the Pats have 1.

I know this new coach has them playing well, but he isn't Mike Vrabel, and now that it's been a couple of weeks since he took over, the initial emotional surge the team has been riding has likely subsided.

Last week was a lot on these guys. Also, Dart and Winston will have to split the snaps this week because they don’t know if Dart will pass the concussion protocol.

Right now, we have 90% of the money and 73% of the tickets on the Pats. If you're a conspiracy theorist who thinks the sportsbooks will make the Monday call to keep this one within a touchdown, then bet New York.

These types of theories have made a comeback worldwide. However, I refuse to let it be a part of my betting model. If I get beat that way, then it is what it is.

The Pats are not as good as their record suggests, and New York has shown against the Lions and Pack that they can hang.

New England needs to establish the run early. Once they get the defensive line playing honestly, they should start to have their way.

It's been fun, New York. Unfortunately, emotions don't last forever, and rarely for more than a week at a time. Take the Pats to win this one 27-16.

New York Giants at New England Patriots Betting Pick

Pick: New England Patriots (-7)

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Start:	November 27, 2025 @ 10:10 PM
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Monday Night Football Picks: New York Giants vs New England Patriots

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