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Monday Night Football Picks: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions

by Mike Allen - 10/16/2025

Monday Night Football picks Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions Baker Mayfield

Football fans are in for a treat this Monday night as they get not one but two games between four potential playoff teams. If you can stay up late or happen to be on that side of the country, you can watch the Texans shock the Seahawks at home starting at 7 PM Pacific.

Today, however, I want to talk about the game most people will be able to watch. Quite frankly, most fans of NFL football would choose to watch Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers pay a visit to the Motor City fast track to play Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions.

I'll start with some surprising tears. This game would be so much better and surely not lined at (+5.5) for the Bucs if they weren't coming into this Monday night matchup so banged up. The good news, however, is that Mike Evans is set to make his expected return to action. Mayfield will need him more than ever, though, as Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin are doubtful, with Emeka Egbuka listed as questionable. Egbuka has a hamstring injury, and the team has said he isn't likely to play. Right guard Luke Haggard might be out as well with a hurt shoulder. He hasn't allowed one sack or even one hit on Mayfield this season.

This is a terrible spot for Tampa. Now add in the fact that their opponent was just defeated by the Chiefs on national television only days ago. The Lions will have to do it without Pro Bowler Brian Branch after he socked JuJu Smith-Schuster at midfield after the game.

It’ll be tough for the Bucs to overcome these injuries on the road versus an angry Lions team. If anyone can do it, though, it’s Mayfield, who has already orchestrated multiple game-winning drives this season.

Immediately after reading that, we should be thinking "Hmmm, maybe Tampa is a bit overvalued". What if they had lost a couple of those late ones they won by field goal?

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5) at Detroit Lions (-5.5)

Point Total: 52.5

If you want to play the total, hit the over quickly because it opened where it is now, and nearly 90% of the money has come in on it. Hold your horses, however, because the Lions might take a slightly slower approach to this game.

They know there's only one man this Monday night who can beat them, and if they keep him on the sidelines, their path to victory will be that much smoother.

Moneyline Odds

Buccaneers: +200

Lions: -250

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions Betting Analysis

It might be time for the cardiac kids to flatline temporarily. Looking at many of the advanced statistics tells us that Tampa is more of a middling team, with their current injury status. They really haven't been healthy all season.

Tampa Bay will probably make a run later in the season, but it doesn’t appear they’re going to start just yet. They had their luck, if you will, and regression may be on the way.

As for Detroit, they're the same team on offense as last season, and a different team on defense. The presence of edge rusher Aiden Hutchinson is paramount if they want to win. He's been such a difference maker for them this season. Last year, without him, they ranked 23rd in sacks. This season, they're 3rd.

The pass defense, especially when the quarterback throws the ball, still isn't the best, and Branch's suspension will hurt them there as well. I guess Mayfield can throw to anyone. We've seen him do it before.

I'm caught between the Lions' ugly (-5.5) number and over the total of 52.5.

The matchup on paper heavily favors the Lions as Tampa struggles to defend the pass.

I don't know who Mayfield is going to throw to. Let Teddy Bridgewater run some routes. Why not? I can't get behind the over with so many injuries to the Bucs' offense. I will take the Lions to cover, though. The number is ugly, but not uglier, though, than the spot for Tampa.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions Betting Pick

Pick: Lions (-5.5)

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