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Monday Night Football Picks: Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Chargers

by Mike Allen - 12/5/2025

Monday Night Football picks Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Chargers Saquon Barkley

This Monday night, the defending Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles make the cross-country trip to the City of Angels to play the Chargers. Philly does have to worry slightly about the surging Cowboys taking the #1 spot in the NFC East, but this game is far more critical for the home team.

LA's chances of qualifying for postseason play currently stand at 47%. That's wild, given that their record is still 8-4. Their division rival, the Kansas City Chiefs, have roughly the same chances but sits two games behind them at 6-6.

The hate placed on head coach Jim Harbaugh or quarterback Justin Herbert is entirely misguided. If this team is healthy, they're Super Bowl contenders. You can't get me to believe otherwise.

When the offense puts them in decent positions, the defense is top 5 in the league, and even now, they’re still top 10. Over the past three games, they’re allowing just 4.4 yards/play. Their schedule, though, just hasn’t been strong enough to grade them for an upcoming matchup with the Super Bowl Champs.

It’s no secret. The offensive line for LA is in complete shambles. It’s not just the fact that they lost star left tackle Joe Alt to a season-ending injury. They’re hurting everywhere, and it showed against the Jags a couple of weeks ago. They gained 135 yards for the entire game on just 8 first downs compared to 30 for Jacksonville.

Say what you want about the Philadelphia offense, but their defense has been solid for most of the season. From a yards per play perspective, they’re a middle-of-the-pack defense, but they’ve been top 5 in the red zone.

Their offensive line has not been able to generate anywhere near the same kind of push it had last year. Just look at Saquon Barkley's statistics, and that will tell you all you need to know. He's been healthy all year, yet averages more than 2 yards per carry fewer this season than last!

Neither offensive line is near full strength. I’m already thinking I want to play the under in this spot. Let’s take a look at the point spread, though, first, and see what we can make of that.

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Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) at Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5)

The lookahead line was (-2) for Philly, and the road favorites have been pushed up to (-2.5), which is where we are now simply because the Chargers can't block anybody. This is also one of the most non-existent home-field advantages for any team.

I know they’ve been highly frustrating to watch, especially considering how dominant they were down the stretch last season and through the Super Bowl. I could still see Philly rolling here.

The Jags had their way with this team less than two weeks ago.

Point Total: 41.5

There are a few 41s still out there, so if you want to play this under, I would bet it now. One factor hurting the under is Eagle's star defensive lineman Jalen Carter, who underwent a minor shoulder surgery this week and will, of course, be on the sidelines.

Helping the under, though, is the fact that Herbert and running back Omarion Hampton were limited at practice on Thursday.

I want the under here, but the loss of Carter is significant. The D-line is usually a strength for Philly over the years, but 2025 has been different, with Carter leading the way, while others have been mediocre at best.

Moneyline Odds

Eagles: -145

Chargers: +120

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers Betting Analysis

Here’s a wild couple of stats for you. The Chargers are by far the worst run-blocking team in the league, yet their rushing grade is one of the best in the NFL. A big part of this is Herbert’s ability to scramble. His injury is a non-throwing wrist, so that shouldn’t affect his scrambling ability.

They are throwing extra tight ends in the game and getting to the edge to move the ball. This plays right into the strength of the Philly defense, its linebackers and secondary.

Speaking of strong secondaries, both teams are solid there, and LA has General James, as I like to call him, playing center field or nickel corner. Derwin Jr. can lock receivers down or knock them down. He is a joy to watch, and looking at the injury report for the Chargers’ defense, I see zero red ink. There couldn’t be a larger contrast with their offensive injury report.

Give me the under 41.5 while it's still there. If it drops to 41 or below by the time you read this, I bet the Eagles, but only at (-2.5). They're the better team right now, overall, in terms of health.

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers Betting Pick

Pick: Under 41.5 Points

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