Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

Monday Night Football Picks: Washington Commanders vs Kansas City Chiefs

by Mike Allen - 10/23/2025

Monday Night Football picks Washington Commanders vs Kansas City Chiefs Xavier Worthy

We aren't getting the Monday Night Football quarterback matchup the NFL had in mind when they put this one on the schedule for Week 8. Second-year Washington Commanders starter under center, Jayden Daniels, has been ruled out this week, and a familiar face at this point, former Oregon Duck Marcus Mariota, will be making his 5th start in the past 12 months.

You'll see in a moment, when we get to the betting odds for this game, that the sportsbooks aren't giving Mariota or the Commanders any respect here. I'm hearing that they might get two receivers back this week, including their star Terry McLaurin. Mariota has been highly serviceable as a backup quarterback, particularly in offensive coordinator Kyle Kingsbury's system.

Also, who do we think we are, potentially backing the Chiefs as double-digit betting favorites? Remember, this has not been the best betting trend over the past few seasons. I know they seem to be a different animal now with both Xavier Worthy and Rasheed Rice back, stretching the football field. It hasn't been that long, though, since they would put together seven to eight-minute drives just to kick a field goal and hardly ever cover as favorites of a field goal or more.

This year, though, in their four wins, they’re averaging an 18.5-point differential.

Washington has yet to get on track this year and has now lost two in a row heading into Monday Night Football at Arrowhead.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Washington Commanders (+12.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5)

There are some (+13)'s out there if you want to bet on Washington, but the more I break this one down, the more I think it is not likely to be close at all.

Point Total: 47

We opened at 46.5, and there are still a few of those out there if you want to grab them. I would do it sooner rather than later because 47 is a very key number in NFL point total betting. We see games end on this total quite often in comparison to others.

KC can put up 40 on their own here. Keep in mind the Commanders' pass defense ranks dead last at 32nd in the NFL in yards/pass attempt at 8.3. That's atrocious, and the general manager is to blame, as even a fully healthy secondary is a joke.

Moneyline Odds

Commanders: +530

Chiefs: -800

Washington Commanders at Kansas City Chiefs Betting Analysis

The Commanders' defense has been one of the worst in the league to start the 2025 regular season, and now the team is without its rising star quarterback, Daniels. Even with him, the passing game has struggled this season, albeit primarily due to injuries at the wide receiver position.

The only thing that’s worked consistently, minus last week, for the Commanders is the running game. They do rank 1st in the NFL in yards per carry at 5.4. That happens to be where the Chiefs are weak on defense. Perhaps Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo loads up the box with his talented linebacking corps.

KC does have the talent and experience in the secondary to leave their guys on islands against Washington. Mariota isn’t the deep ball throwing threat that Daniels is at all. He can zip some intermediate balls around and move his legs when needed, though.

I don't see how the Commanders can keep pace with KC here. Once they're up a couple of scores, Washington won't be able to run the ball, and their biggest strength will be nullified.

Mahomes jumps on them early, and then the Chiefs put it on cruise control, likely locking in the under 47 points.

Get a bet in on KC while this line is still at (-12.5). Who knows what happens on the field, but this is not an even matchup on paper.

Washington Commanders at Kansas City Chiefs Betting Pick

Pick: Chiefs (-12.5)

Get NFL picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bets by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

Most Recent Monday Night Football Picks

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers