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Patriots vs. Jets Picks for Monday Night Football Week 7


by - 10/16/2019

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady

Jamaal Williams, you %*(#&!&*! In Monday night's game against the Detroit Lions, the Packers running back could have scored a touchdown on first-and-10 from the Detroit 11 with about 1:30 left. The Lions were trying to let Williams score, and he had a wide-open path to the end zone but smartly fell down right at the goal line even though his team was trailing 22-20. Williams and the Packers didn't want to give the ball back to Matthew Stafford and the Detroit offense as the Lions were out of timeouts.

I was ticked because a Williams TD there probably has the game finish with Green Bay winning 27-22 instead of 23-22. So we lost on the spread at Green Bay -2.5 but at least did win on "under" the total of 46.5 - which obviously would have lost if Williams had scored there. Ah well, another split, and I actually did call Green Bay scoring 23 points in a victory.

This Monday's game surely will not be going down to the wire as the New England Patriots visit the New York Jets . The Patriots' schedule just ticks me off. Look, they can't help they play in the same division as the crappy Dolphins and Jets and meh Bills. But New England's schedule has been a joke: Pittsburgh, at Miami, vs. the Jets, at Buffalo, at Washington and vs. the Giants. That's Alabama-ish. The Tide's nonconference schedule this year: Duke, New Mexico State, Southern Miss and Western Carolina. Come on!

New England remains the favorite to win the Super Bowl at Bovada at +250 and all the Doc's-affiliated books should have another prop up this week on whether the Pats finish unbeaten. They aren't going to. The schedule finally toughens up in Week 8 vs. Cleveland. Since 2001, the Patriots have now had 14 different winning streaks of six games or more in a season. That doubles the next team over that span, the Colts (seven).

Patriots at Jets Betting Story Lines

New England has been a double-digit favorite four times this season and is 3-1 ATS in those following last Thursday's 35-14 win over a very short-handed Giants team. That top-ranked Patriots defense forced four turnovers. Kyle Van Noy returned a fumble 22 yards for a touchdown about midway through the fourth that essentially clinched it. The Pats also had a special teams score, and Tom Brady rushed for two touchdowns, becoming the oldest player in league history to do that. He also passed Peyton Manning as the NFL's No. 2 all-time passing yardage leader.

Brady said this week that he wasn't going to try and lure Rob Gronkowski out of retirement, and the new Fox analyst said that's he's not going to be playing this year. The team is set to re-sign tight end Benjamin Watson. He was released by New England on Oct. 7, but injuries to fullback Jakob Johnson (shoulder) and tight end Matt LaCosse (knee) opened up a roster spot - Johnson was placed on injured reserve and LaCosse is likely to miss a few weeks. Receivers Phillip Dorsett (hamstring) and Josh Gordon (knee) are both banged up, too.

The Jets were surprise 24-22 winners last week at home over Dallas. That New York offense looked totally different with the return of quarterback Sam Darnold from mono. He threw for 338 yards and two touchdowns, with Robby Anderson catching a 92-yard score. Le'Veon Bell also got his first rushing TD as a Jet.

New York is hoping to see the season debut of tight end Chris Herndon this week off a four-game suspension. He wasn't ready in Week 6 due to a hamstring injury. However, trade acquisition and guard Kelechi Osmele is done for the season due to shoulder surgery. The Jets got Osmele in a deal from Oakland in March for a fifth-round and sixth-round pick. Alex Lewis has started the past two games at left guard for Osmele and played well.

Patriots at Jets Betting Odds and Trends

At 5Dimes, New England is a 10.5-point favorite (+115) with a total of 42.5. On the moneyline, the Patriots are -440 and Jets +350. On the alternate lines, the Pats are -10 (-123) and -9.5 (-110). New England is 2-1 against the spread on the road and 0-3 "over/under." New York is 1-2 ATS at home and 1-2 O/U.

The Patriots are 20-6 ATS in their past 26 vs. teams with a losing record. They are 7-3-1 ATS in their previous 11 on Monday. The Jets are 7-1-1 ATS in their past nine vs. teams with a winning road record. They are 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven after a win. The over is 5-2 in New England's previous seven after a cover. It's 9-4 in the Jets' past 13 vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 6-1 in the past seven meetings. The Jets have covered five of the past six at home.

Patriots at Jets Betting Prediction

In Week 3, the Jets were 20.5-point underdogs to New England and covered in a 30-14 loss despite totaling just 105 yards of offense, six first downs and zero third-down conversions in 12 tries behind former third-string QB Luke Falk. He was released this past weekend, leaving David Fales as Darnold's backup.

Obviously, the Patriots will win this game, but I like the Jets to put up a decent fight with Darnold in there. Something like Patriots 27, Jets 23. Take the 10.5 points and go over that low total.

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