Week 15 NFL Picks: Best 6-Point Teaser Bets from Handicapper Doug Upstone
Last week I stated I wanted to close the season strong on NFL teasers and got off to a good start at 3-1, taking season record to 39-17. That is not where I wanted to be for NFL picks but can only strive to maximize what is left for the 2019 season.
My methods are explained below, and this week there are four favorites that can be lowered into what appears like a very favorable betting situation for teasers to beat the NFL odds. Let's see if we can reach 4-0 this week.
Below are my Week 15 selections.
New England at Cincinnati - Dec. 15 - Patriots Taken From -9 to -3 over Bengals
We have witnessed all the offensive struggles New England is suffering from. Compared to years in the past when they had few problems, there were ways we all could see how they would get better and they did. That's not the case here. The offensive line is pedestrian, the pass-catchers other than Julian Edelman have a hard time getting open, and the peerless accuracy of Tom Brady is not the same. That is why, even against 1-12 Cincinnati , if we can drag that Patriots all the way down to -3, that should enhance our chance of winning. And it does not hurt the Pats are 30-3 against a teaser line having lost two out of their last three games.
Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Patriots -3
Seattle at Carolina - Dec. 15 - Seahawks Taken From -6 to -Pick over Panthers
Seattle didn't appear to have much in the emotional tank last Sunday night, even for a divisional game with the Los Angeles Rams. During the Seahawks five-game winning streak, every outcome was stressful, as each contest had a point differential of eight or fewer. Having suffered that loss, that should rekindle Seattle's drive. And with two victories the next two weeks, they will play San Francisco for the NFC West title and maybe a No. 1 overall seed. Carolina; pop them out of the microwave since they are done, losers of five in a row and a franchise about to alter its course in an unknown fashion. In the last three years, Seattle is 8-1 ATS in road games versus teams allowing 350 or more yards game, winning those by 10.4 PPG. Needing Pete Carroll's squad just to win takes away most of the pressure.
Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Seahawks Pick
Atlanta at San Francisco - Dec. 15 - 49ers Taken From - 11 to -5 over Falcons
San Francisco has just faced Green Bay, Baltimore and New Orleans, the last two on the road, and they came away 2-1 and 3-0 ATS. Back home taking on the 4-9 Falcons , this could easily be a flat spot for the 49ers. That is why for this teaser it is very important to drop below the key numbers of 10, 7 and 6 to make it more advantageous for us to come up with a winner. The Niners are still the superior squad. And though that suffered meaningful injuries versus the Saints, their roster is as complete as any in the NFL. Also like knowing the past 11 times the Dirty Birds were on the road in the second half of the season, facing teams outscoring their opponents by 10+ PPG, they've lost by 16.2 PPG.
Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: 49ers - 5
Jacksonville at Oakland - Dec. 16 - Raiders Taken From -6.5 to -0.5 over Jaguars
This might be a trifle tough to swallow backing Oakland since they have dropped three straight by 83 total points. Nevertheless, the closest Jacksonville has come to winning in their last five tries was a 28-11 drubbing against Tampa Bay (they trailed 28-0), and their margin of defeat stands at 23.4 PPG in this horrid stretch. By all appearances, the Jaguars have quit, while Oakland just hasn't played well enough. This is the Raiders' last home game in Oakland . And while they have left and returned before, they finally have the stadium deal they always wanted and are headed to Sin City. Though the Raiders have not played well recently, hard to imagine in such an emotional game before their fans that they won't supply a big effort versus a team that wants the season to end.
Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Raiders -0.5
Doug Upstone's NFL Teasers Method - Betting NFL teasers are not about taking off points in games you like, rather creating value going against key numbers. Those key numbers I am talking about are 3, 6, 7, 10, 13 and 14. This is the real secret to beating the oddsmakers NFL odds for teasers.
The other key component is betting wisely. Limiting your teasers to two, three or four-team groupings, that enhances your chances of winning. With most four-team teasers paying out about $240 on $100 bet when you go to a five-teamer that jumps to +365 and keeps rising as you add more games.
Along with that so does your chances of not winning. How often have you bet teasers and parlays of six or more and only had one wrong? My guess is too often. Long shots do come in, but more often than not the money won only pays for all previous losses.
Doug Upstone is the latest handicapper at Doc's Sports and he brings years of experience with him. Doug has 21 documented No. 1 titles and finished in the Top Ten 80 other times in a distinguished career. Doug as a professional handicapper/writer, has written for various well-known sports betting websites and several of the football newsletters you have read before.
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