Monday Night Football Predictions Week 3: Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
It wasn’t pretty, but a football game in which one player scores four touchdowns should be remembered for a very long time. Hats off to Aaron Jones for finding paydirt four times on Monday night against the Lions, and hats off to anyone who stayed up and watched the actual ending of the game. You know exactly who I’m talking about – it was fantasy football fans and bettors who had their point-spread wagers teetering in the balance with a possible back-door cover by the Lions. Ultimately, Green Bay won by 18, and that game is now history. On to Week 3, where we have ourselves a good old-fashioned NFC East showdown between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys.
As of writing this, the Cowboys are currently four-point favorites with the total set at 51.5. This line opened up at Cowboys -3.5 and has since been bet up a half-point. I fully understand the line movement as we see “America’s Team” get a prime-time game against a division rival after a big win on Sunday. The public loves to believe in the Cowboys. And while I think they are still better than what they showed through two games, the market still does not agree with that.
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Storylines to follow
America’s Team. Are they back? I watched the entire Dallas/Los Angeles game last week, and I’m not so sure if the Cowboys won the game more so than the Chargers lost it. Once again, there were some questionable calls made against the Chargers, and the Chargers really did go the whole game without punting and still managed to lose. Nonetheless, let’s not take all the credit away from the Cowboys, who outgained the Chargers and put up 198 rushing yards. The Cowboys’ offense is going to be a problem for teams with below-average defenses, as the likes of Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and, heck, even Tony Pollard, can all cause matchup problems for opposing defenses. The defense held their own on Sunday, and they will still need to continue to improve if the Cowboys are “back” for real. The true test will be watching how they fare against a poor offensive squad like the Eagles this week. Can they lock them down for a full 60 minutes, or will they succumb to the prime-time pressure as they did in the season opener on Thursday Night?
Hurts, doesn’t it? After putting together a solid Week 1 performance of 264 yards passing and three touchdowns, Jalen Hurts came crashing back down to earth against a real defense. Hurts threw the ball 23 times and completed just 12 passes for 190 yards while being sacked twice. For an Eagles team that is void of any real talent at the skill positions, getting great quarterback play is paramount to the team’s success. I was skeptical about Hurts taking over as the full-time starting quarterback to start the year. And after two games on opposite ends of the spectrum, I’m still not sold that he’s the guy. The Eagles will need to find answers on offense in a hurry as they have the Cowboys, Chiefs, Panthers, Bucs and Raiders all on deck. Not sure if they’ve watched any of the highlights, but those are good teams putting up some major points.
Angles and Trends:
If you like the Cowboys and are going to lay the points, you are banking on the following:
- Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
- Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on field turf.
- Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games vs the Eagles.
- Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last four Week 3 games.
- Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.
If you like the Eagles and want to grab the points, these trends are for you:
- Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss
- Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite
- Cowboys are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games vs the NFC
- Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last seven following an SU win.
If you are thinking about betting the total, these are the important trends to know:
- Under is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 Monday Games
- Under is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 Games vs NFC East
- Under is 9-3 in Eagles last 12 games overall.
- Over is 8-2 in Cowboys last 10 home games
- Over is 20-8 in Cowboys last 28 games vs the NFC
- Over is 11-5 in Cowboys last 16 vs NFC East.
We nailed last week’s selection of the Packers -11.5 and are excited about keeping the winning going this Monday. We are going to lay the four points with the Cowboys for a few reasons that include but are not limited to the Cowboys being better on both sides of the ball, the Cowboys’ run game should gash the Eagles’ run defense, and the quarterback matchup isn’t even close. Dak Prescott has looked solid in his return from the season-ending ankle injury he suffered last year. He’s managed the game well and taken his shots when needed. I’m not sold on Hurts being the answer that the Eagles are looking for under center. And with two opposite performances, I will gladly take my chances with the Cowboys’ defense stepping up in a big way here and shutting down a feeble Eagles’ offense.
Pick: Cowboys -4.
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