Monday Night Football Predictions Week 7: New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks
If this week’s Monday night showdown between the New Orleans Saints and Seattle Seahawks is even half as good as last week’s contest between Buffalo and Tennessee, I will be a very happy football fan. Last week, we were treated to one of the games of the year, and I fully back the decision to go for it on fourth-and-inches instead of kicking the field goal to tie the game. You play to win the game. And if you ran that play another nine times, Allen would get that half yard each and every time. In terms of this week, while the drama and storylines prior to kick-off may not be there, I expect one side to come out and dominate this game for the full 60-minutes.
As of writing this, the Saints are currently 4.5-point favorites with the total set at 42.5. This line opened at Saints -3.5 but has quickly been bet up. I am behind the line movement as we have a rested Saints team heading to Seattle to take on a Seahawks team that showed very little offense in their Week 6 loss to Pittsburgh. Remember, the Seahawks are still without Russell Wilson and will be starting Geno Smith for the second time this year.
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Storylines to follow
Rested and Ready: The Saints come into this game fresh off of a Week 6 bye and should be ready to play a full 60-minutes of solid football. The Saints went into their bye week with a much-needed win against the Washington Football Team to push their record to 3-2. This is another very winnable game for the Saints as they are taking on a very poor Seahawks team, and one that is starting their backup quarterback. If you think the Saints are looking ahead to next week’s showdown with the Buccaneers, think about how critical this game is first. The Saints know that heading into that game at 4-2 is a hell of a lot better than 3-3 and possibly then 3-4 when they lose to the Bucs. I like what the Saints have done so far this season on defense, and I expect their defense to be the catalyst in propelling them to a win here tonight. The offense, while ranked ninth in rushing yards and ninth in points, is ranked 31st in passing yards and 30th in total yards. The Seahawks defense is by no stretch a scary defense to play against, so I expect the passing game to get going and for the Saints to have a big night on offense.
Kitchen Closed: Besides the “Legion of Boom” that’s since been ousted, the main saying around the Seattle franchise was “Let Russ Cook.” What does that mean exactly? Well, that means that fans and experts wanted the Seahawks to take the reins off Wilson and let him run the show, similar to what Aaron Rodgers does for the offense in Green Bay. Unfortunately, that never happens as much as everyone would like partly because Pete Carroll is running the show and partly because the Seahawks offensive line is atrocious. Well, now that Russ is out for an extended period of time, the kitchen is officially closed. Geno Smith is simply not a good enough quarterback to hold down the fort for the Seahawks until Wilson returns. And with their upcoming schedule, I can see one more possible win (against Jacksonville) before their date with the Texans in Week 14. By then, the Seahawks will be out of the playoff race, and the speculation of Wilson’s future with the Seahawks will begin once again.
Angles and Trends:
If you like the Seahawks and are going to take the points, you are banking on the following:
- Seahawks are 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 Week 7 games.
- Seahawks are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog.
- Seahawks are 11-5-1 in their last 17 Monday night games.
- Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Monday night games.
- Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 head-to-head matchups.
If you like the Saints and want to lay the points, these trends are for you:
- Saints are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings vs Seattle
- Saints are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games vs a team with a losing record.
- Saints are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games as a road favorite.
- Saints are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
If you are thinking about betting the total, these are the important trends to know:
- Under is 10-2 in the Saints’ last 12 games following an SU win.
- Under is 8-2 in the Saints’ last 10 games following an ATS win.
- Over is 7-2 in the Saints’ last 9 games on Monday.
- Under is 6-0 in the Seahawks’ last six games following an SU loss.
- Under is 9-2 in the Seahawks’ last 11 games vs the NFC.
- Under is 5-2 in the Seahawks’ last 7 home games.
Prediction (Season Record: 2-3)
I am going to keep this selection as short and as sweet as possible. The Saints are better in almost every facet of the game. They have the better quarterback, thanks to Wilson being out. They have the better running back, the better defense and the better coach. The only thing the Saints might be behind the Seahawks in is pass catchers as Metcalf and Lockett are a solid combination. The only issue is that Smith is not up to the task of leading an NFL team to victory. I’m taking the Saints in what I expect to be a lopsided contest.
Pick: Saints -4.5
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