NFL Wild Card Betting Picks: Best Prop Bets Colts at Bills
Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills, Bills Stadium, 1:05 p.m. EST. Jan 9, 2021.
When the Bills take on the Colts in Saturday’s Wild-Card game, it will mark the first time that these two franchises have competed in postseason play. For the Bills, they won the AFC East division for the first time since 1995. And to say it wasn’t well deserved would be an understatement. The Bills scored the most points in the NFL this season and rank inside the top five in all major offensive categories except for rushing (20th). The Bills got the green light from the NFL and the city of Buffalo to allow around 7000 fans in the stands for this contest, so you know the atmosphere from Bills Mafia is only going to boost the team even further. As for the Colts, they owe the Bills a major “thank you” as they needed the Bills to beat the Dolphins in Week 17 for them to have a shot at grabbing the final wild-card spot. The Colts were also a Titans loss away from winning the division and hosting the Ravens. So, to say the Colts don’t deserve to be in the postseason would be a bit of a stretch.
As of writing this, the Bills are favored by seven-points and the total is set at 52. Based on what we’ve seen from these two teams over the last month or so of the regular season, I believe the total is spot on, although it would be silly to bet the under. As for the spread, it’s going to be close. The Colts do have an above-average defense and may be able to slow down the vaunted Bills offense. However, I’m not getting in the way of Josh Allen and that explosive offense. Instead, I have keyed a few prop bets I expect to hit and make us some money.
Team Total Points
Buffalo Bills – “Over” 30.5 -120, “Under” 30.5, -120
The regular season and the playoffs are two completely different animals. Teams sell out to win in a different way in the postseason than they would in the regular season. If there is a team in the AFC with a defense that may be able to contain the Bills’ offense, I believe it to be the Colts. The Colts rank seventh in total yards allowed, second in rushing yards allowed and 10th in points – giving up just 22.6 per game. The Colts have 17 weeks of tape on the Bills’ high-powered offense. And if there is a coach that could get the most out of his players, it’s Frank Reich (the mastermind behind the Eagles Super Bowl win). Look, we know how explosive the Bills’ offense is. They’ve won six straight games while scoring 56,38,48,26,34 and 27 points. If you look at the defenses they’ve played in those games, they’ve played some extremely weak ones like the Chargers and the Broncos. The Colts should have the perfect game plan for the Bills, and that’s to run the football against the Bills’ 17th-ranked run defense. I think the Colts will be effective on the ground, thus limiting the amount of time the Bills offense is on the field. I hate betting unders, but the playoffs bring out the absolute best in teams, and the Colts’ defense will need to be the vital piece if they have a chance at pulling off the upset.
Pick: Under 30.5 -120
T.Y Hilton - “Over” 4.5 +115, “Under” 4.5, -143
It hasn’t been a great year for Hilton as he’s battled through injury and has not put up the kind of production we are used to seeing from the nine-year veteran out of Florida International. Hilton has amassed just 762 yards this year on 56 catches and has found the endzone just six times. This season has been the lowest output of his career (min 11 games played), but he has really started to find some chemistry with Philip Rivers through the latter part of the season. Over the last six games, Hilton has caught 27 passes on 43 targets for 435 yards and five touchdowns. He now gets to go up against a Buffalo defense that ranks 13th vs the pass. I wrote about it off the top; if the Colts are going to have any shot at winning this game, they are going to need to keep the ball out of Josh Allen’s hand as much as possible. That means running the football and then catching the Bills off-guard with the play-action or quick pop passes. Hilton has a good matchup this week and should get plenty of looks in the passing game to keep the Bills’ defense honest.
Pick: Over 4.5 receptions
Devin Singletary - “Over” 29.5 -112, “Under” 29.5, -112
The Bills’ offense is potent, but it’s extremely one-dimensional. They don’t run the ball with very much effectiveness outside of the designed runs and/or scrambles by Josh Allen. The Bills know their best chance of winning this game is with the arm of Josh Allen and the silky hands of Stefon Diggs. The Bills rank third in passing yards per game but just 20th in rushing yards and as they go up against the second-ranked rushing defense in the Colts, I don’t foresee many Singletary runs for more than a couple yards at a time. Not to mention, the Bills like to use a running back by committee with Zack Moss stealing some of Singletary’s touches out of the backfield.
Pick: Under 29.5 Rushing Yards
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