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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 11 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 11/15/2022

NFL opening line report Week 11 Josh Allen Buffalo Bills

An eventful Week 10 is behind us, and it is now time to look ahead to Week 11. Last week, we went 2-1 on our bets. The Chiefs got the 9.5-point cover at home to the Jags, while the 6-point underdog Colts won outright. The lone blemish was the defending Super Bowl champs faltering once again, dropping to 3-6 on the season. This brings our ATS record to 11-5 this season, good for a 69 percent win rate. Before jumping into Week 11, here are the biggest storylines from Week 10.

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  • Game of the year: The Bills and Vikings put on an absolute spectacle, delivering the game of the year in Week 10. The Vikings prevailed, moving to 8-1, while the Bills no longer have a stranglehold on the AFC East, dropping to 6-3. 
  • Brady gets right: Tom Brady moved to 4-0 in international games, as the Buccaneers topped the Seahawks in Munich, moving back to .500 in the process. In a weak NFC South, the Bucs now lead the division and once again look like a safe bet to return to the postseason. 
  • It’s Tua time: Tua Tagovailoa has now won 10 straight games and has led Miami into first place in the AFC East. He threw for 285 yards to go along with 3 TDs and 0 INTs in a 39-17 blowout over the Browns. 
  • Matt Saturday: The new Colts head coach started his tenure with a win over the lowly Raiders. While beating the Raiders is nice, a much tougher test waits in Week 11 as Philly comes to town.
  • Jones gets it done again: If someone told you the Giants would be 7-2 through the first 9 weeks, you would’ve called them crazy. However, that’s exactly where the Giants find themselves, with a visit from the Lions making 8-2 well within reach. 
  • Green Bay stays alive: Playoff hopes are slim in Green Bay, but a win over the Dallas Cowboys certainly helps. Aaron Rodgers had a solid game, and his young receivers stepped up when they needed to most. 
  • Goodbye LA: The Rams are putting together one of the worst Super Bowl defenses in recent memory, and they now sit 3-6 heading into Week 11. Unless something changes, and soon, the Rams will be spending January on the couch. 
  • Down goes Philly: The lone remaining undefeated team fell to the Commanders 32-21 on MNF. While questionable officiating may have sealed the Eagles’ fate, Taylor Heinicke and the Commanders stepped up, played well, and got back to .500.

Week 11 is here. The opening lines have dropped, and it’s crucial to lock in value early in the week. Beating Vegas is a tough order, and every half point you can save will pay dividends in the long run. Let’s get into it.

Game 1: Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons

Opening Line: Atlanta Falcons (-3)

The Bears are heading to Atlanta off the back of a disappointing 1-point loss to the Detroit Lions. Justin Fields ran for 147 yards, bringing his 2-game total to 325 rushing yards. The Chicago Bears must be feeling better about their franchise QB and will be looking to get back in the playoff race against the Falcons. The Falcons are coming off a long week, as they fell to the Panthers 25-15 last Thursday. The extra rest will surely help, but one of these teams are feeling a lot better about themselves than the other. The Bears have found new life, and catching a free field goal against the slumping Falcons feels like a gift. The Falcons seem content to ride Marcus Mariota rather than give the rookie Desmond Ridder a chance. In what should be a razor close game, I’ll happily take the 3 points with the Bears.

Pick: Chicago Bears (+3)

Game 2: Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills

Opening Line: Buffalo Bills (-8.5)

Both of these teams are entering Week 11 on the back of losses and will be looking to set their respective seasons back on track. The Bills lost a heartbreaking game to the Vikings in Week 10 and have now dropped back-to-back contests. They remain the Super Bowl favorites, but anything other than a convincing win over the Browns will allow doubt to start creeping into the minds of Bills Mafia. The Browns welcome Deshaun Watson back to practice but are still slated to visit Buffalo and welcome Tampa Bay to Cleveland before he returns. Unfortunately for the Browns, they are getting the Bills at the worst time in the season, as the Bills will be looking for a big statement win in Week 11. Unless Allen’s elbow injury acts up, I expect a 2-touchdown drubbing of the Browns in front of the Bills faithful.

Pick: Buffalo Bills (-8.5)

Game 3: Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings

Opening Line: Dallas Cowboys (-1.5)

While the Cowboys are coming off a stunning OT loss to the Packers, the Vikings are coming off an incredible OT win against the Bills. The Vikings moved to 8-1 and are now 7-0 in one-score games. While the clutch gene is growing inside Kirk Cousins, the Vikings have been lucky, and must improve if they want to remain among the league's best. Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook put up another monster game, with 193 receiving yards for Jefferson and 119 rushing yards for Cook, with a touchdown each. The Vikings will continue to lean on their stars and should not be the underdog against Dallas. The Cowboys coaching cost them the game against Green Bay, and they will be looking to get right in Minnesota. If this game was in Texas, I’d expect the Cowboys to be slight favorites. However, considering the game is in Minnesota, I’m shocked. The Vikings have proven themselves in tight games. And until that luck runs out, I will continue to ride the win streak. Take the +1.5, or the +100 ML as the Vikings should win outright and move to 9-1.

Pick: Minnesota Vikings (+1.5) or +100 ML

11-5 ATS Record (69%)

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