NFL Betting Predictions: Week 13 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 11/29/2022

NFL Week 12 is now behind us, sending us into the final third of the season. Last week, we went 2-1 on our ATS picks, moving our season record to 13-8-1 on the year. The Ravens lost to the Jaguars as 4-point favorites, but the Commanders easily took care of the Falcons, and the Steelers won outright as short dogs on MNF. It feels good to get back into the winning column, but the job is far from over. Before jumping into Week 13, let’s look at the biggest storylines from Week 12.

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Thanksgiving classic: All three Thanksgiving games ended within 1 score, which made Thanksgiving Football a joy to watch. The Bills took care of business in Detroit, the Cowboys easily handled the Giants, and the Vikings had another dramatic comeback to oust the Patriots.
Broncos sink further: Just when it looked like it couldn’t get worse in Denver, it did. The Broncos lost their 7th game in the last 8 weeks, this time to the lowly Carolina Panthers. Russell Wilson threw for 142 yards, and went 19/35, putting on another woeful performance in his new home. Despite having the number 2 ranked defense, the Broncos dropped to 3-8 on the year.
Washington continues to roll: After starting the year 1-4, the Commanders now sit in the final NFC playoff position, winning 6 of their last 7 games. Taylor Heinicke still has plenty of work to do, but a stellar defense and clutch plays from their QB has been the difference.
Will Tua lose? Tua Tagovailoa has been on a roll, winning all 8 games he’s completed this season, after finishing last year on a 8-1 run. Miami easily tossed aside the Texans in Week 12, and a tough matchup against the 49ers in Week 13 puts Tagovailoa’s 16-1 record in his last 17 games at risk.
Goodbye Zach Wilson: Giving up on the second overall pick just a year and a half into his career is a tough decision to make. However, the Jets made the right one by benching Wilson in favor of Mike White, who immediately smacked the Bears, throwing for 3 TDs alongside 318 passing yards. White offers them the best chance to win right now, and Jets playoff appearance can no longer be sacrificed for Wilson.
Passing the torch: Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers both lost again in Week 12, bringing their record to 5-6 and 4-8, respectively. Brady should still make the playoffs thanks to a dreadful NFC South, but it is now obvious the days left in the league are limited for these future hall of famers.
Jaguars stun the Ravens: A late Trevor Lawrence drive coupled with a 2-point conversion for the win gave the Jaguars a 28-27 win over Baltimore. The Ravens were up 10 with 6 minutes to play and blew the lead again. The Ravens clearly have the firepower to compete with the best but continue to throw games away.

Week 12 is in the books, and Week 13 lines have dropped. It’s critical to lock in value now, as every point can be the difference when trying to beat the bookie. Securing favorable lines early will ensure the value gets locked in and can save you thousands in the long run.

Game 1: Washington Commanders at New York Giants

Opening Line: Washington Commanders (-2.5)

The Commanders head to New York for their first of two meetings against the Giants. After starting 1-4, the Commanders have turned their season around and now sit 7-5. For New York, the story is quite the opposite after starting 6-1 and since dropping 3 of their last 4. These two teams are heading in opposite directions, and a spread under 3 leaves lots of room for money to be made. Taylor Heinicke has been given the keys to Washington’s offense. And while he will throw a few terrible passes each game, he lifts the spirits of the entire team. For the Giants, it’s not time to throw in the towel. They are still 7-4 and hold their fate in their own hands, and a win over the Commanders would go a long way to cementing a playoff spot. However, I just can’t put my faith in this team quite yet. The Giants have yet to win by more than 1 score this year and own a negative point differential despite their winning record. The close calls and lucky bounces will eventually stop going their way, and a stout Washington defense will leave no room for error. The Commanders win to overtake the Giants, making their Week 15 game in Washington even more critical.

Pick: Washington Commander (-2.5)

Game 2: Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens

Opening Line: Baltimore Ravens (-8)

This one is going to hurt, but I have to take the Broncos on Sunday afternoon. Russell Wilson and the Denver offense leave A LOT to be desired, sitting dead last in points by a significant margin. However, I feel as though they can keep it close against the Ravens, thanks to their solid defense. Time and time again the Ravens build leads and throw them away. An 8-point spread leaves the backdoor cover well within reach, and I will be putting my faith in the Broncos to deliver. Their run game has been improving, but it’s Wilson I’m putting my money on. Wilson has delivered timeless classics throughout his career, and I’m expecting a vintage performance in Baltimore. Time is ticking for the Broncos to turn the season around, and they have not given up yet. A stellar defense will be able to limit Lamar Jackson and keep this game within 1 score, cashing our bold cover in the process.

Pick: Denver Broncos (+8)

Game 3: Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers

Opening Line: San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)

The 49ers welcome the red-hot Miami Dolphins into town, which is shaping up to be one of the marquee matchups in Week 13. The 49ers are coming off a shutout victory over the Saints, stretching their win streak to 4 games, while the Dolphins smashed the Texans, extending their own win streak to 5 games. One streak will end, and the bookies have tipped the 49ers to come out on top. However, I don’t agree. The 49ers are a good team, but their offense still leaves plenty to be desired. Jimmy Garoppolo is mediocre. And considering the weapons the 49ers have, they should be doing a lot better. Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey are two of the most explosive offensive players yet have not been able to put up points. Across the field, Tua Tagovailoa has been virtually unstoppable this season. And were it not for an early injury, he’d be the MVP favorite. He’s thrown for 11 TDs and 0 INTs in his last 5 games, with at least 261 passing yards in each contest. While it won’t be easy, I expect him to thwart the number 1 ranked defense. The Dolphins have consistently proven they can win and are on an aforementioned 16-1 winning run with Tagovailoa dating back to last season. Getting them in the underdog role is not something that will happen often for the rest of the season, and I’ll gladly take the free 3.5 points against the 49ers.

Pick: Miami Dolphins (+3.5)

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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 13 Opening Line Report and Picks

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